AIR - Air NZ.

[RGR367]

.................. I'm amazed that people give an analyst so much kudos and sell down because of his opinion, I almost feel sorry for them.

And I wholeheartedly agree!

[simjp81]

Whichever way you slice and dice the numbers 10c divvy for this half is sure thing I reckon.....

If its not, fasten your sealbelts.

[simjp81]

Seems to be tracking along ok so far today. Bigger volume buying in than selling. Will be interesting to see what happens in Friday afternoon trading.

[winner69]

I know someone will ask me to put my gonads on the line pretty soon and ask what my estimate is of 1H Fy17 profit before tax so to preempt that I'll put it out there... I'm estimating $240m before tax.

No wonder the share price is collapsing

That forecast must be worse than Craigs effort .... and with that as a H1 result wouldn't they be struggling to reach FY $500m (mid point)

[Beagle]

No wonder the share price is collapsing

That forecast must be worse than Craigs effort .... and with that as a H1 result wouldn't they be struggling to reach FY $500m (mid point)

Not at all mate. 2H incorporates the busy summer season and yields on tickets sold have been firming lately, (remember there's an average two month lag between ticket sale and travel date). A lot of the shoulder season fares in October / November were sold a few months earlier when oil was low and competition was very hot. This summer season the tourists are here in record numbers and I predict when future monthly stat's come out you'll see yield looking comparatively better than it has been YTD.

Actually mate we're starting to see evidence of that already. In the November operating stat's group yield YTD was down 8.6% compared to last year and in the December stat's group yield YTD was down 7.9%. Conclusion, ticket sales towards the back end of the IH must have been at quite a bit better yields to move the YTD yield needle that much in just one month (Dec).

I think we'll continue to see that YTD yield decline reduce as the year goes on. I think $260-$280m is on the cards for 2H FY17.

[couta1]

Not at all mate. 2H incorporates the busy summer season and yields on tickets sold have been firming lately, (remember there's an average two month lag between ticket sale and travel date). A lot of the shoulder season fares in October / November were sold a few months earlier when oil was low and competition was very hot. This summer season the tourists are here in record numbers and I predict when future monthly stat's come out you'll see yield looking comparatively better than it has been YTD.

Actually mate we're starting to see evidence of that already. In the November operating stat's group yield YTD was down 8.6% compared to last year and in the December stat's group yield YTD was down 7.9%. Conclusion, ticket sales towards the back end of the IH must have been at quite a bit better yields to move the YTD yield needle that much in just one month (Dec).

I think we'll continue to see that YTD yield decline reduce as the year goes on. I think $260-$280m is on the cards for 2H FY17.

That's the one, there is going to be so much going on, on the domestic front for the rest of this year that the 2nd half will definately be better in my opinion, plus if the summer is anything to go by then we are in for a cracker winter and ski season. Disc-In top up mode today.

[RupertBear]

That's the one, there is going to be so much going on, on the domestic front for the rest of this year that the 2nd half will definately be better in my opinion, plus if the summer is anything to go by then we are in for a cracker winter and ski season. Disc-In top up mode today.

Coutas in top up mode!!

[arc]

That's the one, there is going to be so much going on, on the domestic front for the rest of this year that the 2nd half will definately be better in my opinion, plus if the summer is anything to go by then we are in for a cracker winter and ski season. Disc-In top up mode today.

Couta. The possibility of the weather patterns being good for winter (skiing, travel, visitors...etc) are not certain. There was less rain fall and more wind over the last winter. Climate change will create seemingly chaotic events buried amongst a background trend line. What will emerge over the next 5 years is larger and longer lasting storms.

[winner69]

I know someone will ask me to put my gonads on the line pretty soon and ask what my estimate is of 1H Fy17 profit before tax so to preempt that I'll put it out there... I'm estimating $240m before tax.

After being astounded with this number the other day I've done some sums and now reckon you are a bit light with your $240m (which signals they haven't been any more efficient than last year)

Using your passenger revenue forecast (known within a few million) and assuming no great change in other revenue streams total revenues will be about $2.63 million

CASK has been improving over the last few years (efficiencies etc) and if we use a CASK of 9.0 cents (H!16 was 9.4 and H2 was 9.1) and plugging in numbers for finance costs etc one comes to an NPBT of $310m

Whatever MOPS has been could upset that CASK assumption. MOPS was US$60/barrel in H1 last year so maybe about the same this year. But if no improvement in CASK and it is same as last years 9.4 cents then NPAT will be about $230m

Whatever I reckon H1 could be around $300m which would set up a good full year result.

Praying for a good CASK - as no doubt AIR are else they will need to rewrite the Slides on CASK and CASK Improvement which they proudly touted at last announcements.

[simjp81]

http://i.stuff.co.nz/business/indust...th-for-airport