After being astounded with this number the other day I've done some sums and now reckon you are a bit light with your $240m (which signals they haven't been any more efficient than last year)
Using your passenger revenue forecast (known within a few million) and assuming no great change in other revenue streams total revenues will be about $2.63 million
CASK has been improving over the last few years (efficiencies etc) and if we use a CASK of 9.0 cents (H!16 was 9.4 and H2 was 9.1) and plugging in numbers for finance costs etc one comes to an NPBT of $310m
Whatever MOPS has been could upset that CASK assumption. MOPS was US$60/barrel in H1 last year so maybe about the same this year. But if no improvement in CASK and it is same as last years 9.4 cents then NPAT will be about $230m
Whatever I reckon H1 could be around $300m which would set up a good full year result.
Praying for a good CASK - as no doubt AIR are else they will need to rewrite the Slides on CASK and CASK Improvement which they proudly touted at last announcements.
Hi Winner,
Agree on your $60 oil average last year.
In late January 2016 when Brent oil hit a low ~ $30 barrel based on the conference call I listened into at their interim result in Feb 2016 I understand AIR very astutely went to their maximum allowable, (within their own pre-determined criteria) forward cover position on oil. I believe in Q1 FY17 AIR were enjoying utilizing that extremely well timed forward cover which together with more use of more fuel efficient planes augers well for some ongoing CASK improvement in IH FY17. CASK price pressure will be felt with higher fuel prices since then. They were also running the little Beechcraft 1900 planes last year that are fuel hungry for their size and have been on record saying they were losing $1m a month of that fleet last year which isn't repeated 1H FY17.
As we move into 2H FY17 they have recently taken delivery of another 3 Dreamliners (9 in total now) and are exiting their remaining fuel hungry 767's this half from March so we should see ongoing fuel efficiency gains this half, offset by slightly higher fuel prices but augmented by better yields, (recall the CPI data link I posted last week showing the substantial increase in international airfares in the last quarter of 2016).
I'm happy with my pick of ~ $240m, (its good for a bean counter to be conservative) and as I mentioned by e.mail last week I feel $260-280m is on the cards for 2H FY17.
Just my old steam powered abacus...probably miles off...we'll know a lot more in a few weeks when they report and I'll probably be miles out lol
You could well be right and the profit could be ~ $300 and CASK could really surprise to the downside. I think its possible CASK could be as low as 8.6 - 8.7 cents. Maybe we both get a big surprise in a few weeks
(Cask is cost per available seat kilometer in case anyone is wondering)
Last edited by Beagle; 31-01-2017 at 09:02 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Originally Posted by simjp81
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks