AIR - Air NZ.

[Bobdn]

Interesting article which includes a table of P/Es for Asian airlines. Air NZ seems cheap by comparison.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...argain-to-cicc

[couta1]

Interesting article which includes a table of P/Es for Asian airlines. Air NZ seems cheap by comparison.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...argain-to-cicc

Are there better value stocks to buy on the NZX currently? not many, if any.

[Baa_Baa]

Are there better value stocks to buy on the NZX currently? not many, if any.

I don't know whether it is a value stock, but it is a definitely a cyclical industry that can smash a share price, or boost it, and yet still the company's share price remains in a sustained down trend. It might break out albeit a lot of capital to recover (above $2.18), but it might not.

Regardless of what an XXXXOS holder says, with some respect, for whatever reasons they seem to ignore the potential for the cycle downwards to continue. Hard as that may be to fathom or accept. Risk / reward may be off the scale, though as not obvious as in times past when the share price was appreciating, as the faithful have recently reverted solely to pointing out the sustained dividends regardless of the share price. Certainty, there is none. Sure, you can put your capital at risk for earnings alone, or in an uptrend enjoy earnings and capital appreciation. Which side of the cycle are we on right now?

Comforting words from the devoted will surely follow, it's to be expected here, some may look to weigh that against share price/performance and the gauge that the market will certainly deliver. After 4 or so years in enjoying capital appreciation and dividends, I'm equally enjoying being out while the cycle runs it's course.

[Beagle]

yet still the company's share price remains in a sustained down trend.

Sorry mate you lost me on the first line. We must be seeing different charts I see a nice recovery from a $1.70 several months ago and still trading well above the 100 day MA which looks like $2.04 on my chart.
http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEA...07/financials/
2018 prospective PE is only 7.2 !
Compare that with other airlines in Australasia and Asia and compare that 7.2 with the ten year average of AIR of a PE of 11. FY 18 could be close to the bottom of the current cycle for all you, I or any analyst knows. Good luck finding a better value home for your money We'll know a lot more tomorrow morning about how the airline is going, save any more debate till then eh

[Baa_Baa]

We must be seeing different charts

Yes, the context of my post was 'cyclical', so looking at the bigger picture the SP turned again on black Friday Jan 13th right on the down-trend line from the high's over $3.

What do you think the SP will do this time when the dividend is announced, will it fall like it did last time ex-Div?

[Beagle]

Predicting the future is fraught with risk but I'd expect a typical pattern with a normal sized dividend. Most stocks share prices recover normal sized dividends within a few weeks of going ex dividend, most of the time. I am looking forward to tomorrow's half year result.

[Raz]

I expect it to be a good result.

[Hoop]

Originally Posted by Baa_Baa
yet still the company's share price remains in a sustained down trend.

Sorry mate you lost me on the first line. We must be seeing different charts I see a nice recovery from a $1.70 several months ago and still trading well above the 100 day MA which looks like $2.04 on my chart.

Downtrend definition:...lower highs lower lows

Looks likes a downtrend to me...how could you not see this

[couta1]

I expect it to be a good result.

Topping up today's with proceeds of another big selldown on another downtrending stock, current average is now $2.22, a huge effort to get it down from $2.80ish. PS-Dont try this at home.

[Beagle]

Interesting article which includes a table of P/Es for Asian airlines. Air NZ seems cheap by comparison.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...argain-to-cicc

Originally Posted by Baa_Baa
yet still the company's share price remains in a sustained down trend.


Downtrend definition:...lower highs lower lows

Looks likes a downtrend to me...how could you not see this

I see a nice recovery since early October. I also see that AIR is extremely cheap relative to its peer group and well positioned with a very young fleet and I think its been well lead by Chris Luxon.
I think the result tomorrow might surprise some people, hopefully I'm not one of them