AIR - Air NZ.

[couta1]

Sichuan Airlines to fly Chengdu (think Pandas) to Auckland and back.

That should spice things up a bit .

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

spice - get it ?

Not a route Air fly's anyways, but will be sure to add passengers and extra spice to their domestic stronghold.

[boysy]

interesting article just out

Air New Zealand profit forecast to tumble for the past six months as competition heats up

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11805506

"Management's full year guidance range of $400m -$600m is based on a jet fuel price US$10 lower than current spot levels."

Air New Zealand faced direct competition across the Pacific from American Airlines during the past half year, new carriers from China have entered the market and Emirates increased its capacity on its long haul routes. Air fares have been at historic lows, hitting all airlines' profitability.

Bowley said it was assumed that management had been concentrating on cost containment during the past six month and increases in capacity were predicted to fall.

"With significant RASK pressure challenging various routes for Air New Zealand, we expect the airline to outline a more subdued capacity outlook than in recent periods."

Overall capacity grew more than 7 per cent in the first half of 2017 but this was expected to fall to "low single digits" in the second half of this year.

The material decline in profitability through the full year and sustained higher levels of capital expenditure meant Air New Zealand would be flirting with the top end of its gearing band by the fiscal year end.

"The board may consequently prefer to take a more prudent approach with its dividend and therefore we see scope for a cut."

Bowley said while Air New Zealand had a better record than most of international peers, the airline industry generated volatile returns.

"Strong management and the structural advantage of being based in New Zealand with a
dominant local business (where it has 80 per cent of the domestic market) offer some earnings support through the cycle. However, Air NZ is not immune from cyclical swings and is currently in the midst of a downturn," Bowley said

[Beagle]

I think Bowley has the fuel thing wrong. AIR were enjoying extremely low forward cover fuel prices in the first and second quarter and even this quarter have most of their current consumption covered with a brent collar with a maximum price of $U.S.50. In addition AIR are currently enjoying fuel costs based on a US dollar that materially more favorable than last year. Fuel costs for the half being reported tomorrow will be lower than Bowley is expecting. I have seldom found a reason to rate Forbar's analysts and that after being with them for many many years, no longer have an association with Forbar which speaks for itself in terms of what I think of their analysts research.

[Raz]

I think Bowley has the fuel thing wrong. AIR were enjoying extremely low forward cover fuel prices in the first and second quarter and even this quarter have most of their current consumption covered with a brent collar with a maximum price of $U.S.50. In addition AIR are currently enjoying fuel costs based on a US dollar that materially more favorable than last year. Fuel costs for the half being reported tomorrow will be lower than Bowley is expecting. I have seldom found a reason to rate Forbar's analysts and that after being with them for many many years, no longer have an association with Forbar which speaks for itself in terms of what I think of their analysts research.

I agree on the fuel comment Roger and think first six months result will be ok, on balance historically AIR has discounted prices over Dec- Feb to fill capacity going forward, I have not seen this discounting occur this year to the same degree, that is a good sign for the second six months.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/297228 AIR approved as a participant in the Governments renewed carrier agreement.

[carrom74]

Are we heading for a free fall tomorrow as the market would have seen the herald"s later afternoon scary story on its forthcoming results?

[couta1]

Are we heading for a free fall tomorrow as the market would have seen the herald"s later afternoon scary story on its forthcoming results?

The good old Herald and it's gun Forsyth analyst, they know how to pick the perfect timing for releasing their negative articles, i'll give them that, apart from that I'd take the article and the analyst with an extremely large pile of rock salt. PS-I see boysy is back, them Rosehips sure can't be pretty to watch right now.

[Raz]

The good old Herald and it's gun Forsyth analyst, they know how to pick the perfect timing for releasing their negative articles, i'll give them that, apart from that I'd take the article and the analyst with an extremely large pile of rock salt. PS-I see boysy is back, them Rosehips sure can't be pretty to watch right now.

ha the good old Herald which can hardly ever say a bad word about property however when it comes to AIR...altered my position already so we shall see tomorrow...

[Beagle]

Yeap I topped up very recently too at $2.095 and I am more than happy to back my own analysis and judgement.

[Subway]

Just my two cents, after flying return from London to Auckland on Malaysia Airlines, for almost half what AirNZ was charging for not quite an equivalent service (my domestic connection wasn't on the same ticket in NZ, and obviously I don't get Koru access/airpoints), unless you can justify the significant additional cost to fly AirNZ then you need to understand the considerable long haul competition for AirNZ and what that represents. If I want to fly London/Auckland I now have the option of Malaysia, Qatar, Emirates, China Southern, China Eastern, Philippines, Thai, Air China, with the exception of Philippines, these are all one stop hub options with considerably better baggage allowances and better connections. The second question I have is, what can AirNZ focus on for the value add, they used to milk domestic routes and as unreliable as Jetstar is, they are often significantly cheaper, is the money just in the pacific islands? do they expect people to just pony up the additional for the "Air NZ experience"? Im really struggling to understand their business now...