AIR - Air NZ.

[Nasi Goreng]

Qantas EPS 0.27. Share price $3.70

Air EPS 0.228. Share price $2.22

Hmm

[winner69]

Qantas EPS 0.27. Share price $3.70

Air EPS 0.228. Share price $2.22

Hmm

20% discount for being a smaller air line
20% discount for being the outsider in the ASX and Having it's main listing on an exchange they call the NZX

Relativity seems about right

[Beagle]

I am happy with the analysts presentation and analysts seemed happy with the answers to questions.
Some key points I noted.
Traditionally first half is stronger.
Company is expecting less RASK decline in 2H and overall expects RASK improvements going into FY18 which is consistent with my long held view that opening specials by new competitors in our market don't last indefinitely.
Once new entrants have established a route and built demand from cheap pricing as they come around to their anniversary or even sooner they will look to normalize their yields to actually make money.
Company expects ongoing rask improvement half on half in the years ahead with higher oil prices.
Company thinks we're now at a cyclical high point in terms of intensity of competition and pressure on yields.

You could easily infer from that that the current level of projected earnings for FY17 are very close to a cyclical low. With capex falling dramatically in the medium term I have a high level of confidence about the sustainability of the dividend of 20 cps annually. Anyone hoping for a reversion to the cyclical low of the unprecedented depth's of the GFC is highly likely to be extremely disappointed and will be missing out on what is an extremely high gross dividend yield while they wait in vain hope on the sidelines.

All good, no worries...back to sleeping by the dividend food bowl

[sb9]

I am happy with the analysts presentation and analysts seemed happy with the answers to questions.
Some key points I noted.
Traditionally first half is stronger.
Company is expecting less RASK decline in 2H and overall expects RASK improvements going into FY18 which is consistent with my long held view that opening specials by new competitors in our market don't last indefinitely.
Once new entrants have established a route and built demand from cheap pricing as they come around to their anniversary or even sooner they will look to normalize their yields to actually make money.
Company expects ongoing rask improvement half on half in the years ahead with higher oil prices.
Company thinks we're now at a cyclical high point in terms of intensity of competition and pressure on yields.

You could easily infer from that that the current level of projected earnings for FY17 are very close to a cyclical low. With capex falling dramatically in the medium term I have a high level of confidence about the sustainability of the dividend of 20 cps annually. Anyone hoping for a reversion to the cyclical low of the unprecedented depth's of the GFC is highly likely to be extremely disappointed and will be missing out on what is an extremely high gross dividend yield while they wait in vain hope on the sidelines.

All good, no worries...back to sleeping by the dividend food bowl

Thanks for that Roger, was planning to listen to conf call but unfortunately other work meetings have cut into that time slot. Will try and listen to transcript later on.

Overall happy with result and more importantly divvy of 10c fully imputed. That Forbar analyst along with herald need to take a good look at themselves for such a deviated forecast, am sure that would've spooked some retail holder last evening.

[see weed]

Are we heading for a free fall tomorrow as the market would have seen the herald"s later afternoon scary story on its forthcoming results?

We could be half way up the next up trend, which started 5 months ago, I know because I started it in the $1.70s to 1.80s. Was also at the start of the uptrend at the one before that , buying in at 80c to 1.10c, but did sell out too soon at 1.30s to 1.40s. The new low is now 1.90s to $2.... New planes less fuel etc. How high this time? Will let you know in 6 months. My av price at the moment is 2.02 and in the green about 40k including next div

[Nasi Goreng]

So AIR have tightened their guidance which should be fairly predicatable given only 4 months to go plus forward orders.

But what are the rules regarding giving guidance? If it's looking like it's going to come in above or below, do they need to declare it?

[Beagle]

So AIR have tightened their guidance which should be fairly predicatable given only 4 months to go plus forward orders.

But what are the rules regarding giving guidance? If it's looking like it's going to come in above or below, do they need to declare it?

In a word, yes.

[Nasi Goreng]

Thanks for that. Must be different to US system where companies provide a guidance then beat it by a mile.

Just looking at the chart, we had that ugly head and shoulders which caused the down trend. It now looks like there could be a reverse head and shoulders forming, if it can break through $2.30 we could be looking at a bit of a rally.

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/5...ave-peakedhtml

Can't see you getting your $1.50 now Winner

[Bobdn]

This thread is my happy place today. Staying well clear of the SKT thread *sob*.