AIR - Air NZ.

[Bobdn]

I'm savouring the Air ascent, it's been a tough week. What a great lunch you'll have Roger.

[Beagle]

Went fishing today on the Manukau by coincidence ended up directly under the flight path of watching our birds come into land. Fishing was pretty average, company was great, the free landing show was awesome but catch of the day was coming home to see the SP ...suspect Couta1 had an even better day...good on ya mate

[Joshuatree]

Think I've heard that before Roger; same place, more planes; Planespotter for sure!.Im visualising you fluffing a cast and foulhooking the tail of a jet taking off Good few days for us holders.
ps sequel to trainspotter about to hit the screens

[vin]

...surely $3 in short/medium term

You have made this call a number of times over the last couple of years... Let's forget the $3 mark until it happens!! haha

[Raz]

You have made this call a number of times over the last couple of years... Let's forget the $3 mark until it happens!! haha

Not this time unless it happens before July/August

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/8...o-christchurch

nice...

[axe]

air up 13% in two weeks.... i wonder how Couta is coping?

[see weed]

air up 13% in two weeks.... i wonder how Couta is coping?

Very happily you would think. At this rate sp will be 2.40 by days end maybe 2.50 by ex div eve in 6 work days time. I'm with Couta on this one, have just topped up with an extra 102,000 in last couple of weeks. But don't try this at home. On a side issue, went to the ANCCG meeting yesterday about the new flight paths over Auckland, but that's another story.

[modandm]

From late last year:

Been a tough year obviously. I think most of us underestimated the impact to yields that the lower oil price/competition would bring. It's a global phenomenon. Certainly my FY17 earnings estimates have fallen from 40-45c down to 30-35c. That said the share price move down has been dramatic, leaving the company (imho) significantly undervalued, as has been the case for about the last 5 years (has it been that long...).

I certainly knew that FY16 was peak, and perhaps naively thought the dividend / cash-flow story would support the stock. Clearly the negative momentum and uncertainty on yields has mean't a tough devaluation, and risk being priced into the stock.

Where to from here then?

For the ST investor: Yield comparisons get easier in January, so should the operating stats firm up I would expect a re-rating towards 2.50, which values the stock on a reasonable 8x PE.

For the LT investor: Personally i'm not too concerned whether AIR make 28 or 32c in FY17 EPS. The question is sustainability and ideally growth in profit from there. If sustained (along with cash flow) there is a bonanza in FY19-20. I did a few figures and have spoken to the CFO, basically over the next 4 years (if things stay stable), AIR could pay $1.80 in dividends. That's based on a 50c special in FY19, and a 60c special in 2020 plus recurring twenty something ordinary. Over 5 years, you basically get your entire capital back, so if the stock is still at $2, you double your money (15% p.a). Any growth is cream on top.

Pleased with the recent result and expecting the yield improvement to roll in from here. What is clear is that sentiment has switched from cautious to neutral and happily seen the stock advance. The cost performance and fleet simplification benefits are starting to show up, and I expect analysts to continue to be surprised positively by these over the coming 18m.

Still see the capital return bonanza in a few years time, this is now being recognised in analyst models, though most see this as outside the 'investment horizon', and therefore it gets little credit in the valuations (which cluster at 2.30 - funny that..).

The short term question for us now is what would you pay for 20c p.a dividend, I think it could settle at 2.60 pre div, 2.50 after - providing 8% forward yield.

For the longer term investor a return to yield growth in FY18 will bring EPS upgrades, which should support the stock towards $3.00. In FY19 we will need to watch out for announcements about capex, but as management have explained pre-payments for deliveries 2023-on (777-200 replacement) are likely to begin in 2021.

I maintain that the improvements this company has made through the last few years (fleet, IT, lounges, processes, new routes, network alliances) set it up for a sustainably higher level of returns than in the past, and that short term earnings focused analysts don't properly account for this in either their estimates or the multiples they use to value AIR. With the NZX50 trading at a high multiple, and the outlook for NZ better than ever, AIR should gradually re-rate upwards from here.

Best, Mod

[Beagle]

From late last year:



Pleased with the recent result and expecting the yield improvement to roll in from here. What is clear is that sentiment has switched from cautious to neutral and happily seen the stock advance. The cost performance and fleet simplification benefits are starting to show up, and I expect analysts to continue to be surprised positively by these over the coming 18m.

Still see the capital return bonanza in a few years time, this is now being recognised in analyst models, though most see this as outside the 'investment horizon', and therefore it gets little credit in the valuations (which cluster at 2.30 - funny that..).

The short term question for us now is what would you pay for 20c p.a dividend, I think it could settle at 2.60 pre div, 2.50 after - providing 8% forward yield.

For the longer term investor a return to yield growth in FY18 will bring EPS upgrades, which should support the stock towards $3.00. In FY19 we will need to watch out for announcements about capex, but as management have explained pre-payments for deliveries 2023-on (777-200 replacement) are likely to begin in 2021.

I maintain that the improvements this company has made through the last few years (fleet, IT, lounges, processes, new routes, network alliances) set it up for a sustainably higher level of returns than in the past, and that short term earnings focused analysts don't properly account for this in either their estimates or the multiples they use to value AIR. With the NZX50 trading at a high multiple, and the outlook for NZ better than ever, AIR should gradually re-rate upwards from here.

Best, Mod

Many thanks modandum. I really appreciate your updated thoughts and couldn't agree more. A very well run company that's positioning itself extremely well with a very young modern fuel efficient fleet and good airline alliances. We are well positioned

[bull....]

hit 61.8% retracement level yesterday from bottom lows of 1.72 odd still looking good airlines index looking good too msci