AIR - Air NZ.

**Kelvin** · 05-05-2017, 09:51 AM

Originally Posted by Baddarcy

Oil seems to have fallen back a bit recently, WTI is now back in at $USD45 down from the mid $USD 50s not so long ago.

I've seen a few posts about the fleet replacements being all done and dusted in a few years thus freeing up a whole bucketload of cash. What is the consensus on the 777-200s? As at 01/04 the 'Seat weighted Average age' for them is 11 years.

I can't help but notice that the A320 short hauls average age is 12.7 years and Air NZ is in the process of replacing them.

Is the expectation is that they will run them into the ground like the 767s or will they replace them once the current fit out reaches end of life, there are a lot of similarities in size and range with the 787-9?

Aircraft lifespan is largely determined by flight cycles rather than age. 777-200s perform fewer cycles operating long haul so will be around significantly longer than the A320s

They might want to replace the Q300s first, 777-200s still have plenty of life in them.

**RTFQ** · 05-05-2017, 12:31 PM

"I can't help but notice that the A320 short hauls average age is 12.7 years and Air NZ is in the process of replacing them"

sounds like NEO has engine problems, so this could be delayed

**Raz** · 05-05-2017, 01:49 PM

Originally Posted by RTFQ

Generally speaking TA's are in for the short haul and FA's are long haul. I'm out at what I'm thinking is the peak meantime. The winter months generate a lot of headaches for airlines, manpower sickness, weather delays regionally and associated engineering difficulties. Historically the share price goes soft over this period as the market capitulates. AIR has been good to me and I will be back in hopefully around Sept or Oct. Thanks for the all the differing thoughts guys n girls.

Some of us must be Skitzo then. Happy AIR has been good to you... think majority may not have the same answer. I have loved the volatility as a trader and has help pay for my upgraded RS 7 :-) I would have though TA was vital to consider for a share like AIR.

**RTFQ** · 05-05-2017, 01:58 PM

Originally Posted by Raz

Some of us must be Skitzo then. Happy AIR has been good to you... think majority may not have the same answer. I have loved the volatility as a trader and has help pay for my upgraded RS 7 :-) I would have though TA was vital to consider for a share like AIR.

no just bigger balls than I. Good luck.

ps. I used TA to predict this current price rise as stated a couple of weeks back.

**Bobdn** · 05-05-2017, 03:49 PM

Originally Posted by RupertBear

Looks like you're spot on Couta

Not so fast Rupert Bear.

**Beagle** · 05-05-2017, 03:55 PM

The recent decline in oil prices gives AIR an excellent opportunity to lock in forward cover on fuel prices for the first half of FY18 which together with the recent improvement in yield as per the March 2017 operating stat's and ongoing strong growth in tourism shows the fundamentals remain very sound. QAN been showing good SP growth lately so confidence in the sector in this part of the world seems to be continuing to recover nicely notwithstanding the much higher level's of competition.

**couta1** · 05-05-2017, 04:12 PM

Originally Posted by Bobdn

Not so fast Rupert Bear.

June is the new May this year, don't count ya chickens just yet.

**sb9** · 05-05-2017, 04:15 PM

My gut feel once this surges past the 2.70 mark this time, it'll track higher and stay higher for a while. Not quite sure it'll hit the magic $3 mark though yet until FY results are out. Unless there's some sort of trading upgrade from management.