AIR - Air NZ.

[Traderx]

This has been a truly astonishing run for a large cap stock. I feel like a right fool for selling out in the $2.60s. Uncertainty must be high right here. Most interesting thing will be what happens with competitor capacity over next 12 months. Fuel price outlook heading lower should be supportive of long haul capacity into NZ for both AIR and others, question is do competitors overshoot and start affecting yield outlook again.

[GTI]

This is the sharemarket your talking about, not the wind.

The highest is 350 today. What's causing the mercury rise? Ops stats due in two weeks time.

[couta1]

The highest is 350 today. What's causing the mercury rise? Ops stats due in two weeks time.

I can't explain the reason for why some people would want to buy at current prices, just like it was hard to explain what drove Xro to $45, probably the same reason, hype combined with Sheeple behaviour. My Gutometer says leave alone, so I'm going to follow that.

[Beagle]

Fair enough mate, go with your gut and hope for a pullback to get a better entry point but you can't compare those two stocks / events. AIR still trading on a FY17 PE forecast of under 10, ($3.70 would be 10), XRO still to this day trades on the hope of decent future earnings. One is well supported by fundamental's, the other was well supported by...well...nothing more than speculation at that time, (current prospect of some earnings is looking more reasonable but what's their PE now ?)
$600 million before tax this year is a possibility and that's 38.5 cps after tax and even on a ten year average PE of 11 that's $4.23.

[GTI]

Fair enough mate, go with your gut and hope for a pullback to get a better entry point but you can't compare those two stocks / events. AIR still trading on a FY17 PE forecast of under 10, ($3.70 would be 10), XRO still to this day trades on the hope of decent future earnings. One is well supported by fundamental's, the other was well supported by...well...nothing more than speculation at that time, (current prospect of some earnings is looking more reasonable but what's their PE now ?)
$600 million before tax this year is a possibility and that's 38.5 cps after tax and even on a ten year average PE of 11 that's $4.23.

I can't wait anymore... Queued at 3.45.

[winner69]

Now now winner, let's not do a ST forum curse by revoking that (in)famous $3 call...

Hey sb9 - I'm ready to make a $4 call now

The world is so happy at the moment nothing to stop it

Heck even the ABs losing hasn't dampened punters enthusiasm

Looking forward to debating the TA / psycho aspects re round numbers soon - at $4

No worries

[couta1]

Fair enough mate, go with your gut and hope for a pullback to get a better entry point but you can't compare those two stocks / events. AIR still trading on a FY17 PE forecast of under 10, ($3.70 would be 10), XRO still to this day trades on the hope of decent future earnings. One is well supported by fundamental's, the other was well supported by...well...nothing more than speculation at that time, (current prospect of some earnings is looking more reasonable but what's their PE now ?)
$600 million before tax this year is a possibility and that's 38.5 cps after tax and even on a ten year average PE of 11 that's $4.23.

Not comparing the stocks mate, more market psychology and sentiment, those factors don't change.

[Beagle]

Fair enough mate I hear what you're saying and have definitely heard of herd behavior before but in this case its supported by excellent fundamentals and the trend is definitely shareholders friend at present.

The other thing you can't rule out is one of Marliyn's mates in the sand state airlines like Qatar quietly building a stake after getting so comprehensively rebuffed by American Airlines http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/22/ameri...-no-sense.html Qatar is a real hole with a truck load of problems, maybe trying to buy some influence around the world with other airlines ? Thing is with AIR, they could buy up to 10% before needing approval from the N.Z. Government to go higher. Of course this is pure speculation but you can't rule it out as a possibility. I for one wouldn't be completely shocked to see a substantial shareholder notice from Qatar at some point in the future. Their route here is probably at marginal profitability...what would they give for a code / revenue share deal with AIR ?

[couta1]

I reckon there's a lot of very wealthy people out there who bought XRO at around $1, and sold over $40, I can't see Air ever giving that sort of return. The herd behaviour makes some wealthy and others very poor.

[stoploss]

I reckon there's a lot of very wealthy people out there who bought XRO at around $1, and sold over $40, I can't see Air ever giving that sort of return. The herd behaviour makes some wealthy and others very poor.

Don't think XRO has ever paid a divvy , the hounds post on the previous page pointed out a circa 14 % return over the next few years in AIR . Gee I'd take that any day if I could lock it in . Slowly but surely is a good way to go ..
imo better than all in without a S/L in something high risk like XRO