AIR - Air NZ.

**KiwiGekko** · 25-02-2015, 01:51 PM

Originally Posted by Roger

Disc bought more Monday / Tuesday @ $2.57 and again this morning at $2.62

Well done, I am overloaded already on AIR otherwise probably would have topped up too. I came along a little late to the party, so my average buy at present is $2.46.

Very happy with the result today - the difference in the way Stuff / NZH reported the result is fascinating, this tweet sums it up nicely: https://twitter.com/darrinlim/status/570359160073687041

**Beagle** · 25-02-2015, 03:04 PM

I've done some quick back of the envelope calculations on next year's EPS. By my reckoning $700m underlying profit before tax is on the cards, (about $500m after tax) and that's a whopping EPS of 45 cents per share !!!! I'd love to see this beautiful big bird hit $2.70 by close of trade today.
Thanks Kiwigekko. You're not late to the party mate, its just getting started. I'm right at the very top of my maximum self imposed allowable 20% portfolio allocation, if it weren't for that I'd buy even more.

**KiwiGekko** · 25-02-2015, 03:21 PM

Originally Posted by Roger

I've done some quick back of the envelope calculations on next year's EPS. By my reckoning $700m underlying profit before tax is on the cards, (about $500m after tax) and that's a whopping EPS of 45 cents per share !!!! I'd love to see this beautiful big bird hit $2.70 by close of trade today.

1) Out of interest, what numbers are you using for your oil prices & drop in yield as they ramp up new services / increased capacity? I understand the increase in capacity is the main driver for increased profits, I'm curious as to how much discounting people think might be involved in the short term to fill that capacity up?
2) It seems to have broken through $2.68, which has been resistance in the past so *fingers crossed* -- spoke too soon it just hit $2.70.

Cheers.

**Beagle** · 25-02-2015, 03:30 PM

Keep it quiet mate but I think talk of dropping regional fares is just window dressing to keep the public happy...they have to say something to make people feel happy because its still majority govt owned. That's why they made a meal of the $3billion they're investing in new aircraft in the next few years and $40m they're investing in lounge upgrades...to keep Joe public placated.
Sure there will be more night rider fares and some more specials on grabaseat but I like AIR's attitude as reported by Mod in the conference call that airfares are the same as they were ten years ago when fuel was this price and our other costs have gone up. AIR appears to be geared up to defend its prices against any left wing pressure.

Oil's the wildcard... to get to $700m underlying profit I'm assuming it stays around the current level...where it actually goes, who knows but what if circa $80 a barrel for Singapore Jet is the new normal for many years !!!
$2.70....next stop $2.75 bring it on !!! Look at the record volume in the market today...tells you its going north and there will be significant analyst upgrades coming through from brokers in the next few days so people that rely on that will add considerable further impetuous to this upward momentum. $3.00 soon ???

**KiwiGekko** · 25-02-2015, 03:50 PM

Originally Posted by Roger

Keep it quiet mate but I think talk of dropping regional fares is just window dressing to keep the public happy...they have to say something to make people feel happy because its still majority govt owned.

No worries, its just between you, me & the internet.

Agree that they certainly seemed ready with information to defend any pressure from Joe public around air fares. I quite liked the emphasis placed on the amount of additional seats they're adding to the regional areas and that ultimately that will bring some lower costs per seat as a result. Will watch and see what happens with the SP - today has been a very good day for all AIR holder's - time to go have a beer I think.

**IAK** · 25-02-2015, 04:02 PM

Many thanks Modandm, you're the man.

**Beagle** · 25-02-2015, 04:18 PM

[QUOTE=percy;561229]I do,I do,I do [feel as though I am marrying AIR] !!! lol.
And yes you and Forest were right!!!!!![QUOTE]

You could call that a fringe benefit for spending time with us in Chch and helping us with transport to / from the ASM last year....(some of our infectious enthusiasm rubbed off on you).
Isn't karma a beautiful thing, you help others and it comes back to you

P.S. Wow !! Over 5 million shares volume now and up to $2.74.