AIR - Air NZ.

[tim23]

Agree with you tim... assuming you were being ironic.... a number to hot heads on here.... Roger and co..... but it is an airline..... never invest in airlines.

A little bit but while I get the chart thing they often don't pick up good news recent example was TME when they bounced off a $3.00 low and didn't seem to see the US competition for AIR.

[black knat]

A little bit but while I get the chart thing they often don't pick up good news recent example was TME when they bounced off a $3.00 low and didn't seem to see the US competition for AIR.

No they didn't. Important reality check for some around here.

[tim23]

No they didn't. Important reality check for some around here.

Unsurprisingly not much response from the Charters I'm simply believe that share prices are driven by earnings and yields.

[tony64peter]

"all comes down to cost-benefit. In these days of cheap fuel the fuel-hungry engines of the 767 don't cost as much to run so despite higher maintenance they still make a profit. I can't imagine for 1 minute that AirNZ would continue to fly them if they made a loss!"

I think they have provided capacity flexibility whilst waiting for the delayed 787s. I'm no accountant but why would they spend 20M on major maintenance per aircraft when they will be gone in two years?

[stoploss]

Might be some more headwinds in the sector ....

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34795769

[Robomo]

"all comes down to cost-benefit. In these days of cheap fuel the fuel-hungry engines of the 767 don't cost as much to run so despite higher maintenance they still make a profit. I can't imagine for 1 minute that AirNZ would continue to fly them if they made a loss!"

I think they have provided capacity flexibility whilst waiting for the delayed 787s. I'm no accountant but why would they spend 20M on major maintenance per aircraft when they will be gone in two years?

Where did the $20 million per aircraft come from? If in fact that is true (perhaps a D check) then that would improve their resale value - there are plenty of older 767-300ER aircraft still flying (up to 27 years old) with some having been converted to freighters.

(Edit) Just checked - seems a D check takes about 50,000 man hours and cost is about 70% labour, 30% parts. Assuming charge-out rate of $100 per hour that would mean about $8 million for the most expensive D check. Where does your missing $12 million come from?

[Hoop]

Unsurprisingly not much response from the Charters I'm simply believe that share prices are driven by earnings and yields.

Tim you must read past posts..it's all there....

As long ago as 6 months.. some technical posts mentioned cracking the $3 secular resistance was going to be a big test for AIR ..remember reading posts reciting "Xerof's Bat"

OK.. I will spend time but mostly with my TA posts ..Tim don't expect others to use their valuable time to trawl through past posts..this is your job..eh?


12/2/2015....Air struggling for 2 months to crack the $2.65 resistances..BB tightening up on a non trending price, RSI negative divergence gives a slight hint that price may fall back
AIR Price $2.64

Addition DISC:..On the 25th February AIR jumped +7.2% to close at $2.76 This was a start of a rally to end ($2.97) a week later failing to break the $3.00 resistance..

I had a ST holiday from Mid- February to May 2015 and didn't post during that time

18/6/2015
AIR Price $2.395c

Tomorrow needs to be a "whoop whoop pull up" day

haven't got any charts with fibs on it, but $2.25 looks 61.8%. After a BAT reversal (which came in very nicely at my $3.00 prediction, right on cue), the initial target is 61.8%. After that, you won't want to know

7/7/2015
AIR Price $2.56
Chart showing past history drop in Oil prices had no correlation to AIR shareprice..sudden drop late 2014/early 2015 and constant low oil price since has failed to push AIR through the Bat pattern resistance $3...so AIR remains high risk...An possible explanation why low oil prices hasn't helped AIR share price..
The chart also shows the cyclical nature of AIR and the Bat pattern


23/08/2015
Chart showing squeezed BB on a trendless AIR price..quote"I must admit I was surprised by the TA neutrality so close to its Wed 26th August FY announcement"
(AIR price $2.70)

24/8/2015
AIR Price $2.67
A multilayered historic 1999 -2002 chart --Rosey broker forecasts with shareprice conflict...my point was ..Fundamental analysis is unreliable when cyclicals reach very low PE's

28/8/2015
AIR Price $2.49
Roger fundie V Hoop techie debate (AIR firing more sell signals)
Originally Posted by Roger
**** the technical analysis. I'm not selling. Gets much cheaper I double down.


But Roger ...
You **** the TA when it fired a mass of sell signals 11 weeks ago at 270 when a bearish double top pattern was formed using TA (charting) discipline.

You dismissed TA (indicators) discipline when they showed bearish divergences around the $3 level 4 months ago..

You dismissed the long term TA (harmonic) discipline when it showed a possible bat formation warning 6 months ago..and later confirmed that AIR is a cyclical stock and is still behaving as one.


28/8/2015

Getting close to the sloping H&S pattern break target area (~245)....so for me AIR goes onto my watchlist

24/9/2015
AIR Price $2.44
chart..note mid Sept AIR price touched neckline& 2.35 support and respected it and bounced up (a positive sign on a bearish backdrop)

8/10/2015
AIR Price $$2.60
Also see Baa Baa chart

Technicals firing buy signals...The chart is showing the price rising towards resistance and the bull bear line (275) and has to break these to stop the downtrend...
I'll post a chart when I find time..

I bought some today too...but I have reservations as the NZX50 is red

28/10/2015
AIR Price $2.95
Originally Posted by winner69
Today the day 3 bucks reached ....and broken?

Love these cyclical stocks ....especially when the cycle is up

Most things have same cyclical attributes in them anyway, even the so called non-cyclical things
.................................................. .................................................. ...........................................
[Hoop]..Hmmm..I wonder where Xerof's Bat is.....not the cricket bat type..

30/10/2015
AIR Price $2.91

Roger..I hate to pop your bubble..... but in reality AIR is a cyclical stock it always has been and it always will be...that's because the airline business is a cyclical industry that is very vulnerable to economic conditions...they are also very reactive to interest rate changes.....Cyclicals are volatile and can turn on a dime...Investing in cyclicals can make you a quick fortune, unfortunately they can also wipe out your portfolio just as quick

As I said so many times on ST (many of my posts and charts on ST have been deleted!!! Hacker???) FA doesn't help you much with cyclical stocks

Ok...AIR is reaching $3 ...it's nearing the top its very steep historic price oscillation wave..it doesn't mean it will stop and reverse at $3 it could go $4 or $5 as it depends on the whereabouts of the stages of the global economic cycle and the effects of each stage e.g mature stage = economic good times = more demand = increased costs to satisfy demand + more competition = decreased market share + lower margins.....so beware and don't fall in love, because the very nature of these cyclical beasts is to exhibit growth during good times and shrink back during bad times taking back all your gains....This behaviour causes a surprising reliable share price oscillation pattern to occur (hence the term cyclical),,, it shows up very clearly on very long term charts...In the past $3 was the oscillation top end for AIR.

3/11/2015
AIR Price $2.81

Opened up 1 to 285...I would've thought yesterdays sell off was an over done considering the views by some on ST that AIR is fundamentally well under-priced....Mr Market had last night to think about yesterdays action and so far today considers AIR should still be correcting after its steep rally of +20% within the last month.

No major technical shifts... short term has fired sell signals and very close to medium term signaling....My discipline (medium term --default) says hold so I'm still holding...

3/11/2015
Chart questioning Junes bull cycle reversal to bear cycle...there was a tell tale bear cycle behaviour with a sucker rally but then with positive news AIR exhibited some bull behaviour...topping out at 2.955 shows bearish behaviour returning (red arrow) Xerof's Bat wins this round...Also debating sell signals short term signals have fired medium term signals haven't.

4/11/2015
AIR Price $2.80

Opened up 1 to 285...I would've thought yesterdays sell off was an over done considering the views by some on ST that AIR is fundamentally well under-priced....Mr Market had last night to think about yesterdays action and so far today considers AIR should still be correcting after its steep rally of +20% within the last month.

No major technical shifts... short term has fired sell signals and very close to medium term signaling....My discipline (medium term --default) says hold so I'm still holding...

Yeah I think so Couta.I'm putting some faith into AIR that its correction is just a throw back action (A psychological behaviour after a sharp breakout rally)..

AIR was definitely looking like a bear for a few months and recently, after the AGM it broke out of it's bearish mode with the good forecasts from the AIR Management..Investors don't like bears and the AGM comments did not justify a bear scenario just yet so the investors bought in and everyone who wanted in had by the end of October got in and are now satisfied...Now comes the throwback..the lack of volume (momentum) lowers the demand and the price falls back...Its not really traders taking profits that causing the price to drop because the low volume says not many are selling (or buying for that matter)..its that psychological thing.. the investors being satisfied at the moment is the problem...As the price falls due to lack of momentum these satisfied investors may be tempted to start accumulating..it will also tempt others and the price/demand increases again..Seeing this action visually on a chart, the bull/bear line breakout ($2.70/$2.75) is where that support (temptation) should start ..

S&R areas isn't an exact science...maybe the rise off $2.77 could be where the support is..maybe the bottom of the throwback is around this level...maybe a bit lower around $2.70

Now that's my thinking and with it a possible scenario with good chances of happening.. now watch Mr Market make an idiot out of me..(I sell AIR then and break even)

Disc: still holding

10/11/2015
AIR Price $2.72

.............................
DISC:...Oh!!..by the way this "nervous Nellie" sold out today (2.74) after holding the stock for a month ..made a small 4% profit..disappointing result for me...but my discipline said sell and it is a compulsory action when dealing with cyclical stocks....best of luck to the holders I hope the share price goes up

AIR Price closed today 12th November $2.72 up 7c (+2.64%)


Disc: Portfolio 20% shares 80% cash

[pierre]

AIR flying to Ho Chi Minh in 2016. Might be good for a few cents on the SP today.

[winner69]

AIR flying to Ho Chi Minh in 2016. Might be good for a few cents on the SP today.

That Jones guy must have had real trouble convincing his fellow exec mates that is a fantastic move

Is he a genius or not?

[kyanar]

AIR have done crazy specials to LA and Vancouver for $999 return before on grabaseat, usually in the shoulder / off season but if you are price driven and flexible with your dates then the patient puppy gets rewarded
Not too many specials Auckland to Queenstown

And for us Aus residents, AIR does $949 return sale fare (G class, not grabaseat F class) to LAX/SFO. You get to pay an extra $400 to fly out of AKL, even though the flights from Aus connect there!

I'll never understand how flying an extra 5000km is somehow cheaper, but it sure seems to work for the margins!