AIR - Air NZ.

[Phaedrus]

W69, if I were of a cruel and vindictive nature I would post charts showing exactly where ST fundies were buying! And that's not the half of it - these guys are staunch. They held right through the big slide......

[Vitamin]

With VBA most likely off AIR's radar now, what's the chances of AIR announcing a special dividend when it announces its full year result next week?

[macduffy]

Havn't seen any report of this in the local press, yet.

http://business.smh.com.au/business/...0823-ev2j.html

[Dusty]

Havn't seen any report of this in the local press, yet.

http://business.smh.com.au/business/...0823-ev2j.html

Its on the Stuff website sourced from The Age but with its ties to the Dom Post I presume it will be in today's issue.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mark...to-cartel-case

[modandm]

any1 got any opinion on sp direction of air sp over coming weeks

currently holding and thinking of selling - closed slightly higer today at 1.26

cheers

[Phaedrus]

It looks as though AIR will crab sideways for a while - it is in a trading range.

The attached chart shows 6 indicators and their associated buy/sell signals. You can see that 4 of them have triggered Sell signals.

In your position of having held through those Sell signals, I would be inclined to make my Hold/Sell decision on the eventual trading range breakout. A break above the resistance at $1.29 would be a Hold, a break below the support at $1.22 would be a definite Sell. If you don't like such an "open ended" situation, you could sell if/when the remaining 2 indicators fire.

[modandm]

thanks p nice chart - was interesting that the poor results announcement seem to have slowed but not stopped or reversed (up another cent today) the uptrend which was in place. Although as you say it is in a bit or a trading range right now.

does a sp in a trading range statistically most break out to the side of the prior trend? This is what i am hoping obviously. Also AIR is coming up to ex div on monday - how does this affect the support resistance levels? Especially say if one has stops in place.

[Phaedrus]

Does a sp in a trading range statistically most break out to the side of the prior trend?

69% of Trading ranges that are preceded by an uptrend breakout to the upside. With odds like that it is obviously not something you can count on. Note that the last AIR trading range broke down.

AIR is coming up to ex div on monday - how does this affect the support resistance levels?

The usual practice is to correct for the dividend. This is done by subtracting the amount of the dividend from all historical prices up to the point the share goes ex. Thus there is no "step" in the price plot. All reference points move by the amount of the dividend, but all patterns etc are preserved.

[kizame]

Pheadras a question. You seem to customise the time periods in your stochastic oscillator,how do you arrive at the time periods you use?
Do you fiddle until it fits,or do you have standard time periods you use?

Thanks.

[Phaedrus]

I've been using 22 and 100 day Slow Stochastic oscillators on AIR for so long that I can't remember how or why I initially selected these values. Maybe they gave good results on back-testing.

My overall aim is to run a suite of indicators of different classes with their time periods selected such that they are all of approximately equivalent sensitivity. You can see that the 22 day Stochastic as plotted here is less sensitive than the other featured indicators - it's signals tend to lag behind the rest. It would give better correlation with the other indicators if its period was shortened. This would see it too as having triggered a Sell signal recently.

There is nothing sacrosanct about the 22 day period as charted here. In actual fact, since AIR's reversal early this year, a 14 day period has worked a lot better, giving signals nicely in synch with the other 5 indicators.