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Thread: AIR NZ

  1. #6856
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    So @ 30c, Air NZ would get $275M for their $450M stake and they would still have $100M loan to VAH.

    I would imagine the $100M loan is worth more to a non share holder than a significant shareholder. A significant shareholder would never want to send a company to the wall and would likely take stock options. A competitor who is owed debt would however push pretty hard to get its money back so I don't see a problem with the $100M loan, its a cash investment.

  2. #6857
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    All helpful to a rather battered AIR SP of late. I jumped back in picking up the rest of the holdings I had originally yesterday and first thing this morning. Paid a bit more than I anticipated but wanted to hold off and really see a turn around after such a turbulent ride of late.
    Pleased to see this playing out with more positive aspect although anticipating some profit takers now it's jumping up.

  3. #6858
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    looked like it was way oversold yesterday at 2.05 and still is today according to some metrics, and on the weekly - needs to clear 2.15 for a shot at 2.30 next week according to the crystal ball lol
    ill have to rub my crystal balls more often lol
    bull

  4. #6859
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    Get some positive news on AIR stake in VAH and think 2.45 is achievable ST, believe that news is not far off..all going to plan.

  5. #6860
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    Quote Originally Posted by mondograss View Post
    HNA Group is apparently paying 0.30 per share of VAH and intends to increase its holding to 19.99%. I wonder if they'll take some of AIR's stake.

    http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2016053...9rnmtr05fl.pdf
    Interesting move and does AIR no harm in terms of its prospects of selling.

    Interestingly this stake is taken right at consensus view of asset backing http://www.4-traders.com/VIRGIN-AUST...65/financials/ with no value ascribed to VAH's IP or goodwill...hardly surprising seeing as they're currently unprofitable. Consensus broker view is considerably higher though and could be enhanced by this deal with its implications around growth going forward. Taking into account the strategic value of AIR's stake I don't think 40 cps is completly out of the question for AIR's shares and hopefully any deal is nice and clean and involves a complete sale and repayment of any shareholder loans previously advanced.
    Last edited by Beagle; 31-05-2016 at 12:23 PM.

  6. #6861
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    So it looks that HNA would only need 7% of VAH shares more, which I assume would come from Air NZ. Would the capital raised be used pay back AirNZ's loan to VAH?

  7. #6862
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    ......cant believe anyone would be selling at these levels with such potential news about to be released to the market, any day soon? Might be worth 20 or 30c to the SP........IMHO.
    Have a Gr8day.

  8. #6863
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    Quote Originally Posted by GR8DAY View Post
    ......cant believe anyone would be selling at these levels with such potential news about to be released to the market, any day soon? Might be worth 20 or 30c to the SP........IMHO.
    Profit taking is my guess. Some clever people went shopping at 2.05. Wish I was one of them.

    Or different kind of clever people keeping price down to stock up. Seems to be some odd sells going on.....

    I am resisting the urge to buy more but feel comfortable that the VAH thing will play out well. See if I can resist if it goes down below 2.25....
    Last edited by workingdad; 31-05-2016 at 01:21 PM.

  9. #6864
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    Maybe some are viewing the HNA share issue as a negative?
    Anyone have any comments on this? VAH share price seems to be reacting positively and as a major shareholder that's a plus but does it weaken AIRs position on selling at a premium?

  10. #6865
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    Quote Originally Posted by workingdad View Post
    Maybe some are viewing the HNA share issue as a negative?
    Anyone have any comments on this? VAH share price seems to be reacting positively and as a major shareholder that's a plus but does it weaken AIRs position on selling at a premium?
    Could temper any enthusiasm Singapore / Ethiad / Virgin / newcomer had
    “Imagination is more important than knowledge.”

  11. #6866
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    Quote Originally Posted by workingdad View Post

    I am resisting the urge to buy more but feel comfortable that the VAH thing will play out well. See if I can resist if it goes down below 2.25....
    .

    there you go you might wanna stock up now?

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    Quote Originally Posted by smtrader View Post
    .

    there you go you might wanna stock up now?
    Still resisting the urge just at the moment but seems to be some resistance at this level.

    You might get that bear pin today....

  13. #6868
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    Quote Originally Posted by workingdad View Post
    Maybe some are viewing the HNA share issue as a negative?
    Anyone have any comments on this? VAH share price seems to be reacting positively and as a major shareholder that's a plus but does it weaken AIRs position on selling at a premium?
    I'm only thinking straight off the cuff here and out loud, (which is usually a dangerous thing to do LOL), but first up its important to note this is imply a heads of agreement at this stage.
    Not only would it probably require the necessary approvals from Canberra but I would have thought it would also be something that would need ratification from shareholders by way of special resolution requiring 75% approval i.e. AIR's agreement. I think the lack of premium to NTA reflects the weakness of VAH's balance sheet, its present gearing level of nearly 6:1 debt equity is not something any airline should be proud of and its presently approximately breaking even when most airlines are doing well. Whether AIR can execute a transaction at a premium to that price now there's been that line drawn in the sand for their strategic stake now the balance sheet is somewhat strengthened remains to be seen.

  14. #6869
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    I'm only thinking straight off the cuff here and out loud, (which is usually a dangerous thing to do LOL), but first up its important to note this is imply a heads of agreement at this stage.
    Not only would it probably require the necessary approvals from Canberra but I would have thought it would also be something that would need ratification from shareholders by way of special resolution requiring 75% approval i.e. AIR's agreement. I think the lack of premium to NTA reflects the weakness of VAH's balance sheet, its present gearing level of nearly 6:1 debt equity is not something any airline should be proud of and its presently approximately breaking even when most airlines are doing well. Whether AIR can execute a transaction at a premium to that price now there's been that line drawn in the sand for their strategic stake now the balance sheet is somewhat strengthened remains to be seen.
    I like it when you think out loud.
    I didn't realize the requirements for it to go through. Seems some posturing going on and the rift between AIR and VAH perhaps in play......

  15. #6870
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    Yes quite possibly wd. TBH I'm not sure what existing shareholder approvals if any are required for a company to issue that quantum of shares on the ASX, so above post is just a guess really.
    Maybe this is a form of VAH expressing its dissatisfaction with its unsupportive shareholder ?
    Last edited by Beagle; 31-05-2016 at 03:58 PM.

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