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Thread: AIR - Air NZ.

  1. #4591
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    I think Mr Luxon gets slightly frustrated with analysts insistence that AIR is a cyclical stock. Fact is if oil were higher, yields would be better and less need to discount fares. Demand grew at 17% despite very sluggish global economic activity. Its hardly like the economy is booming here either so it begs the question if AIR is a cyclical stock what part of the cycle are we at ? (I think its safer to never assume you know the answer to this question as an absolute certainty).

    I expect further analyst upgrades to come. Fact is cheaper airfares ARE stimulating greater demand for travel. Good things take time
    What ever Roger.....Can't do anymore debating here on this subject..haven't the time to waste in non productive counter arguments and cluttering up the thread with repeated arguments boring everyone to death including myself...
    Have a good one

  2. #4592
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    You obviously didn't listen to the analysts conference call at the time of the annual results or attend the annual meeting as otherwise you would have heard C.L.'s response to claims its a cyclical company. The stock is responding nicely to improved results and outlook and is up from $2.50 a few months ago at the annual meeting. Obviously latecomers to the party would be frustrated by yesterday's price drop and that's perfectly understandable. Thank you for your link in post #4599.
    Last edited by Beagle; 28-01-2016 at 03:02 PM.

  3. #4593
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  4. #4594
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    Default Air Transport World - Asia Pacific 2015 Analysis

    Just published today...

    http://atwonline.com/finance-data/as...132f26d0a28edc

    International traffic on Asia-Pacific carriers grew 7.9% to 276.3 million passengers in 2015, according to the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA). Over 20 million additional international passengers were carried by Asia-Pacific carriers in 2015, pushing the rate of growth in the sector to exceed 2014’s 4.9% year-over-year (YOY) growth by 3 points.

    Low oil prices pushed the region’s airlines to competitively lower their airfares, boosting passenger traffic in the region, AAPA said.

    “Long-haul travel markets prospered on the back of an improvement in economic conditions in selected advanced economies,” AAPA DG Andrew Herdman said, adding that regional travel demand also grew solidly in 2015, despite sluggishness in the Asia-Pacific economy and regional currency weaknesses.

    “Less optimistically, air cargo markets saw only marginal growth [in] 2015, a reflection of the slowdown in global trade,” Herdman said.

    In 2105, international traffic at Asia-Pacific airlines rose 8.2% YOY to 1 trillion RPKs total; capacity in the region was 1.28 trillion ASKs, up 6.3% YOY. The region’s total passenger load factor for the year came in at 78.4%, up 1.4 points YOY.

    Air cargo traffic in the Asia-Pacific region was up 1.6% YOY in 2015, to 64.93 billion FTKs; air freight capacity for the year increased 3.5% YOY to 101.86 billion FATKs, resulting in a 63.7% aggregate freight load factor for 2015, down 1.3 points YOY.

    “Competitive market conditions continued to restrain margins [at Asian airlines]; airline profitability was … affected by currency volatility and variations in individual fuel hedging policies,” Herdman said. “[But] the outlook for air travel markets in 2016 remains broadly positive, although there are significant risk factors ... including increased uncertainty over the regional economic outlook.”

    AAPA’s figures—all of which are provisional—are based on aggregated traffic data for 31 Asia Pacific-based carriers.

  5. #4595
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Many thanks Robomo. Its very pleasing to see how well AIR N.Z's load factors and RPK growth compare so favourably with its peer group.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #4596
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robomo View Post
    Just published today...

    http://atwonline.com/finance-data/as...132f26d0a28edc

    International traffic on Asia-Pacific carriers grew 7.9% to 276.3 million passengers in 2015, according to the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA). Over 20 million additional international passengers were carried by Asia-Pacific carriers in 2015, pushing the rate of growth in the sector to exceed 2014’s 4.9% year-over-year (YOY) growth by 3 points.

    Low oil prices pushed the region’s airlines to competitively lower their airfares, boosting passenger traffic in the region, AAPA said.

    “Long-haul travel markets prospered on the back of an improvement in economic conditions in selected advanced economies,” AAPA DG Andrew Herdman said, adding that regional travel demand also grew solidly in 2015, despite sluggishness in the Asia-Pacific economy and regional currency weaknesses.

    “Less optimistically, air cargo markets saw only marginal growth [in] 2015, a reflection of the slowdown in global trade,” Herdman said.

    In 2105, international traffic at Asia-Pacific airlines rose 8.2% YOY to 1 trillion RPKs total; capacity in the region was 1.28 trillion ASKs, up 6.3% YOY. The region’s total passenger load factor for the year came in at 78.4%, up 1.4 points YOY.

    Air cargo traffic in the Asia-Pacific region was up 1.6% YOY in 2015, to 64.93 billion FTKs; air freight capacity for the year increased 3.5% YOY to 101.86 billion FATKs, resulting in a 63.7% aggregate freight load factor for 2015, down 1.3 points YOY.

    “Competitive market conditions continued to restrain margins [at Asian airlines]; airline profitability was … affected by currency volatility and variations in individual fuel hedging policies,” Herdman said. “[But] the outlook for air travel markets in 2016 remains broadly positive, although there are significant risk factors ... including increased uncertainty over the regional economic outlook.”

    AAPA’s figures—all of which are provisional—are based on aggregated traffic data for 31 Asia Pacific-based carriers.
    Which shows its a cyclical stock--cyclical means up as well as down----now lets see..what factors could cause a stock to be cyclical--changes in cost?-oil ..changes in sales --fewer passengers if the economy goes pear shaped(would you take a vacation overseas if your job was at risk?)--changes in sentiment--an air mishap(god forbid) Another airline stealing business(over performing)....Now thats not a reason for every one to be bummed or angry,because basically AIR are doing very well at this point--but it is a reason to be vigilant--
    The other option is to assume that it will continue to go up forever.-not many things go up forever--especially something that mostly depends on leisure rather than necessity...That of course does not mean that 2016 wont be a cracker year...but a cracker decade might be a bit more of a stretch..After all..the Gov. did have to bail AIR out at one point.Can you imagine what the chart would have looked like if they had'nt?.....Be happy with what you've got..now.

  7. #4597
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    Skid - Why do you think demand has been so strong and RPK growth at 17% double that of its regional competitors given soft economic conditions ? Maybe AIR's marketing team and management are world class operators ? Or is it that since Mr Luxon took over as CEO he's really improved the culture of the organisation, remember that great management always starts with having a great leader as CEO.

    One thing I've learned from over 30 years of investing, never underestimate the value of a really brilliant CEO.
    Last edited by Beagle; 28-01-2016 at 03:16 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #4598
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    Whether Luxon (and others) like it or not AIR will always be seen as a cyclical.

    However we should not overlook that the highs and lows of the 'cycle' in future will be higher than previously. AIR is now a more substantive company.

    As a 'cyclical' stock AIR's PE will be low (5 to 7) when profits are heading to the top of the cycle and the PE will be high (15 to 20) when profits are at he bottom at he cycle. Over the whole cycle the PE will average out at 10 to 11.

    The higher he profit the lower the PE, and vice versa. We had this discussion on this thread a year or so ago.

    But if Rogers 64 cents eps for Fy16 comes to fruition than a share price later his year somewhere between $3.20 to $4.48 is likely. Probably nearer the $4.48 as FY17 loos like it going to pretty good as well and that will be factored in.

    Holders just need to be patient at the moment. That $3 is strong support at the moment - in a few months we will be wondering want the fuss was all about
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #4599
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    Good management is a plus indeed..and they will have to be as things are hotting up in the airline industry that could make this last year a walk in the park..so this will put them to the test.......GAME ON!

    newest arrival..
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11581175

    An of course we know about Quatar--Man that must be some plane to fly 18.5 hrs!! (I think I would rather have a layover to stretch my legs and keep from going to La La land

    There are articles all over the place--they say the cheap prices are here to stay for this year,and there will no doubt be some battles for bums on seats.
    Aside from not quite having my dates sorted for this winter,it seems prudent to wait until the battle line have clearly been drawn.

    Im sure Luxton is a worthy opponent,but the way I see it ,this last year has been like Joseph Parker fighting some of those overweight so so opponents ..and now the quality heavy weights are coming up! He is still a great fighter but the fights will be more of a challenge.

  10. #4600
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    Red face See how WRONG we are when the results come out

    So I have, purely for the fun of it had three attempts to work out what the Net Profit Before Tax (excluding any contribution, if any, from Virgin) that AIR will announce next month.

    As the first iteration I came up with $368M but AIR have yet to contradiction their $400+ this seemed a little unlikely.

    Second attempt was $397M so is in the ball park.

    Finally I managed to pulled $421M out of the hat.

    So I now confidently predict that not only are none of above right but the result will be $409M + Virgin.

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger
    om mani peme hum

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