AIR - Air NZ.

[vin]

Eyes peeled Mr Jinx, I would be topping up but im substantially overweight as it is..

The divvy will make me feel better :P

[Beagle]

Assumptions. Last years div was 16c. This years interim is 10c. Expectation of final div is 10c.
Therefore 20c for the year.

Divide that by .72 and you gat a div before tax of 27.778c

As a yield on share price of 2.75 this is 10.101%

I stand to be corrected.

You forgot the 10 cent special to go with the final that's almost a given this year especially after only paying out a really stingy, (there... I finally called it what it really is), one third of the first half's earnings.

[Raz]

You forgot the 10 cent special to go with the final that's almost a given this year especially after only paying out a really stingy, (there I finally called it what it is), one third of the first half's earnings.

About blardy time..thats right very stingy AIR... from Rodger of all people..possibly he does SWOT analysis after all...:-)

[RTM]

Assumptions. Last years div was 16c. This years interim is 10c. Expectation of final div is 10c.
Therefore 20c for the year.

Divide that by .72 and you gat a div before tax of 27.778c

As a yield on share price of 2.75 this is 10.101%

I stand to be corrected.

Thanks. Roger's #4989 also interesting. I guess with Government as the major shareholder and wanting a decent return, also supports a decent payout later. Maybe closer to the election ? Might get a few more.

[h2so4]

I am considering buying some more so could you help me a little with respect to the dividend. Looking at NZX I see the following for dividend: 2013: 3c / 5c (Interim / Final) 2014 4.5 / 5.5 and 10c special, 2015 6.5 / 9.5. So 2015 = 16c which is 6%. I am a holder and reasonably happy with this, especially adding in the SP appreciation I have seen. But how do you get your 10% Dividend ? What have I missed ?

If you are with ASB securities have a look at the Morningstar report.
This is the relevant bit.
Our remodelled Air New Zealand fiscal 2016 NPAT forecast is NZD 632 million, peak cycle earnings of NZD 715 million in 2017, before declining to NZD 628 million in 2018. Our forecasts assume Brent oil prices bottom in 2016 and recover to USD 70/bbl by 2020. We forecast a fully franked dividend in fiscal 2016 of NZD 27 cents, NZD 32 cents in 2017 and NZD 28 cents in 2018.

[777]

You forgot the 10 cent special to go with the final that's almost a given this year especially after only paying out a really stingy, (there... I finally called it what it really is), one third of the first half's earnings.

Yes I realise that. Didn't want to vex it though.

[RTM]

You forgot the 10 cent special to go with the final that's almost a given this year especially after only paying out a really stingy, (there... I finally called it what it really is), one third of the first half's earnings.

I hope AIR has not forgotten it as well Roger. Not counting on it until I see the announcement. Still, stack up reasonably well even without it, so I did get some more at 2.74. Thanks for your post #4989

[Beagle]

If you are with ASB securities have a look at the Morningstar report.
This is the relevant bit.
Our remodelled Air New Zealand fiscal 2016 NPAT forecast is NZD 632 million, peak cycle earnings of NZD 715 million in 2017, before declining to NZD 628 million in 2018. Our forecasts assume Brent oil prices bottom in 2016 and recover to USD 70/bbl by 2020. We forecast a fully franked dividend in fiscal 2016 of NZD 27 cents, NZD 32 cents in 2017 and NZD 28 cents in 2018.

Morningstar my least trusted research house but FWIW that translates to EPS on 1122m shares of 2016 56.3 cps, 2017 63.7cps and 2018 56 cps. Average earnings for next 3 years 58.7 cps. On a $2.73 Sp that's a PE of 4.65 which is surely the lowest ever for AIR ?

Average dividend yield of 29 cps per year for the next three years and all with be fully imputed, (yes Morningstar we call it imputed here in N.Z. not franked), because they have heaps of imputation credits available so 29 / 0.72 = 40.28 cps gross / $2.73 gives a gross dividend yield on average for the next three years of 14.8%.

Not sure how they came up with a valuation of $2.80 on those PE and yield numbers...

Anyone aware of any other analyst valuation revisions at this point in time ?

[Beagle]

I hope AIR has not forgotten it as well Roger. Not counting on it until I see the announcement. Still, stack up reasonably well even without it, so I did get some more at 2.74. Thanks for your post #4989

You're welcome. People will be very cross at the Annual meeting is there's no special this year. Pretty sure directors and management like to mix and mingle with happy shareholders and I am even more sure that the N.Z. Govt loves to see cash dividends rolling in

[h2so4]

A good time for a buy back.