AIR - Air NZ.

**Beagle** · 03-03-2016, 01:17 PM

Keeping it simple stupid, the KISS principle one of my personal favourites

Okay Hoop, enough theoretical's already... Time to see how AIR stacks up against some if its peers that I follow (all data off consensus analyst FY16 estimates per 4 Traders taken today).

AIR PE 4.90, Yield 11.28* (*grossed up for value of imputation credits)
QAN PE 6.07, Yield 1.64%
American Air PE 6.29, Yield 1.0%
Delta PE 7.29, Yield 1.15%

AIR undervalued on a comparative basis relative to its peers ?...you be the judge.

Mikeybycrikey - One of those A380's was a one off and they're using an older smaller plane on the direct Dubai route. AIR are expanding too last time I looked

**mikeybycrikey** · 03-03-2016, 01:25 PM

Hoop and Roger,
Maybe if 10 years isn't enough, we could always go back 20 years. Should get a nice well-rounded picture of several business cycles, including the bankruptcy in 2001.

As a holder, I'd like to agree with Roger's rosy viewpoint, but I can't help reading many of his posts as saying "this time is different". That doesn't usually end well for an investor.

**Beagle** · 03-03-2016, 01:31 PM

Oh why don't we go back to the Erebus disaster as well...(sarcasm intended). Here's an idea, why don't we look at the calibre of management now and current and reasonably foreseeable earnings.
AIR look cheap compared to their peers and last time I checked we all live in a similar global marketplace...

**JohnnyTheHorse** · 03-03-2016, 01:42 PM

Your afternoon action starting to kick in Winner. 295 by the end of the day, maybe even 3 bucks by tomorrow eh

**Snow Leopard** · 03-03-2016, 02:00 PM

Tell you what Roger - if you want to relax read last years Singapore Airlines Report.

224 pages of information - including 2 devoted to their wines.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

**sb9** · 03-03-2016, 02:25 PM

Originally Posted by JohnnyTheHorse

Your afternoon action starting to kick in Winner. 295 by the end of the day, maybe even 3 bucks by tomorrow eh

Don't want to jinx this, hopefully that one or two big sellers have gone.

I certainly think it'll be $3 before it goes ex-div next week.

**Jay** · 03-03-2016, 02:45 PM

Surely, if the dividend yield is around the 10-11%, it won't stay there, either the dividend will reduce or the share price will increase.

**skid** · 03-03-2016, 02:45 PM

Just be careful guys --cyclicals are very susceptible to the ''Jinx Theory'' (which is very close to the ''short term pattern forming theory''

I personally think your giving far to much respect to the big $3 milestone---last time it passed it both ways without even waiving.

**Beagle** · 03-03-2016, 02:59 PM

Originally Posted by Paper Tiger

Tell you what Roger - if you want to relax read last years Singapore Airlines Report.

224 pages of information - including 2 devoted to their wines.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Thanks for the link PT. I will definitely have a good look when my head stops hurting. Current year PE 17.6 on EPS of 65 cps and a SPD of $11.50. Still one supposes the current year dividend yield provides some respite from the high PE - 3% and then there's the trading on more than 10 times NTA to admire compared to AIR on 1.6 times NTA Hmmm, I thought airlines were horribly cyclical...best we keep this from our friend Hoop eh... Apparently the world as we know it is ending and we're heading into the GFC Mk2 didn't you know

**Traderx** · 03-03-2016, 03:08 PM

There are three primary themes that support a strong AIR currently

Rising demand (Popularity of NZ, global interconnection of people and trade) - SUPPORTIVE MACRO TREND
AIR has a big distribution advantage for the NZ market through its Brand, Airpoints progamme and domestic network - MOAT
Low price of oil but highly valued product = pricing power retained, despite cratering cost of sales - RAPIDLY EXPANDING MARGIN

disc - small long