AIR - Air NZ.

[Beagle]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/7756...elson-facility

[Hoop]

As one can see from the chart AIR has been totally boring...flatlining....The share price is the same as this time last year and is trading within a "not worth the effort" small 10% trading range apart from a couple of unsustainable breakouts both ways...Meanwhile the NZXgross50 (Div not incl) has increased 8% since this time last year..making AIR an underperformer..and a years worth of wasted opportunity for holders of AIR to take advantage of the ongoing NZX50 Bull Market..

Why has AIR unperformed in 2015 with the well published news of future excellent/stella profit and cash flows?

One possible answer is seen on the long term charts...Looking further back on the AIR chart (not shown) is the meteoric rise of nearly +300% within 2 years up from ~mid 80c (July 2012) to ~$2.25 (June 2014)
After that huge rally a large (-20%) bull market correction (breather) took place dropping the price back to ~$1.80 (October 14th 2014 to test the trend line) before a very quick rally (~+50% in 6 months) increased the price from ~$1.90 to ~$2.97 on March 2nd 2015...Since then as seen on the chart AIR has been in a prolonged breather consolidating that market expectation...so it seems back between 2012 to 2014 the market was anticipating huge profits in the future and commenced the huge market 2 year revaluating process which followed..

Some present Positives and Negatives

1...TA indicators are unreliable when share prices flatline for an extend period of time..some TA indicators cope flatlines better than others..TAers turn to using the more sensitive Oscillators and the chart below I have included Twiggs Money flow and the well known and respected Chaiken Oscillator both are negative indicating AIR has bearish tendencies..TAers don't like unreliabilities and uncertainties so most would gravitate to better more TA friendly up trending stocks..

2...AIR is triggering some Buy signals (expected) as it is reaching towards the top of its trading range (~$2.96) The Bollinger Bands are squeezing (see purple arrows) indicating a change (which direction is not clear but the oscillators do suggest a a slightly greater chance its down rather than up).

3...AIR is still in its Bull Market cycle so investors "should" treat any trading range breakout rally as genuine and not the sucker type, even though the previous attempt failed (reached new high $3.26 (top))

4...NZX50 market which AIR is a part of is also in its bull market cycle...one of the very few indexes in the world to perform to a new high recently..this will attract more investors to buy rather than sell (+ve momentum) which after a month of negative values has just turned positive again (1st March) for AIR

Disc: Have small holding of AIR.

Attachment 7925

[Beagle]

For those that asked me today at Lunch when AIR goes ex the 10 cent divvy I can confirm under the new T+2 settlement terms of the NZX it goes ex on Thursday 10th.

[Joshuatree]

Its all on the NZX
DIVIDENDS

Upcoming Dividends

Ex Dividend	Period	Amount	Supp.	Imputation	Payable	Currency
10/03/2016	Interim	10.000c	1.765c	3.889c	18/03/2016	NZD

Thanks Hoop. Perennial disappointing stock of the year. Just glad with my margin of safety entry re $2.40. Imagine holding all that time @ the current price.. I see Craigs new T/P $2.89. Hope she holds up for the holders who bought around these prices; X div, which I'm very happy to take as a small consolation. Its hard to think that AIR will rise much more after these great results and good news stories. Will hold for now and hope points 3 and 4 guide AIR up a little more.

[vin]

Next week for sure Johnny - 3 bucks it will be

Agreed! Was looking pretty good. Be interesting to see how this week goes.

[Beagle]

Not sure on your reference point Hoop but she's sitting in my balance sheet 31 March last year at $2.72 ex divvy, (average cost price well south of that), so by my calculations over the last 49 weeks its shown a capital return of 5.9% and a final dividend of 9.5 cps in Sept 2015 which is another 3.5%, 9.4% total shareholder return YTD and I expect it'll recover the forthcoming dividend fairly quickly.

Not a stellar year I would concur, (despite the stellar result) but AIR is extremely well placed going forward and trades on truly compelling metrics.

[Joshuatree]

Certainly has a great yield for holders for the time being.

[kizame]

AND... Very low PE, if it breaks $3.00 which is long term resistance,could be a nice steady climb to $5.27 imop

[Joshuatree]

Yes and by then the Era of the Electric Plane will have been ushered in and ;well $10 and rising; the sky is the limit

[kizame]

You seem a bit sceptical JT, with continuing inflows matching the current year,I think it will be rerated.