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Thread: AIR - Air NZ.

  1. #521
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    On a technical basis Mr Market thinks so... CJ

    The VBA.ax chart shows a sudden drop in its OBV indicator on the 21st January, this indicates on that particular day Mr Market assumes smart money exited the stock. It seems Air NZ provided the dumb money
    I think Air NZ knows a bit more about the Australasian airline market than most, including significant inside knowledge!

    The way they talked about the stake was almost as if they were a sharetrader

  2. #522
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    On a technical basis Mr Market thinks so... CJ

    The VBA.ax chart shows a sudden drop in its OBV indicator on the 21st January, this indicates on that particular day Mr Market assumes smart money exited the stock. It seems Air NZ provided the dumb money
    This could be an interesting test. What timeframe do we need to revisit this on to determine who was smart and who wasn't?

    How is OBV calcuated.

    Investopedia explains On-Balance Volume - OBV
    OBV attempts to detect when a financial instrument (stock, bond, etc.) is being accumulated by a large number of buyers or sold by many sellers. Traders will use an upward sloping OBV to confirm an uptrend, while a downward sloping OBV is used to confirm a downtrend. Finding a downward sloping OBV while the price of an asset is trending upward can be used to suggest that the "smart" traders are starting to exit their positions and that a shift in trend may be coming.
    Surely be definition then a large puchase by one of many smaller shareholdings has to be a decreasing OBV?
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  3. #523
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    Quote Originally Posted by modandm View Post
    That would be interesting. I would also enjoy your musings on potential VBA/AIR codeshare agreements on longhaul flights and the prospects of both VBA and Etihad joining star alliance.
    I see minimal benefits at this stage. Branson has always been anti large alliances.

    Pooling of spares for 777-300s seems to be the only concrete example so far but many airlines do this quietly anyway.

    Also what do you reckon AIR is worth? It is great talking about airlines but I would also be interested to hear your views on the company as an invesment.
    I only do rough broad brush valuations as I don't think there is value in much more as sharemarkets look forward and businesses and industries constantly change. I prefer to invest based on business momentum. So let me just say more, lots more. Morningstar have a valuation of $2.15.

    They are currently are large % of my nz portfolio
    This is not something I would not recommend as any and everthing bad that happens in the world can and does affect airlines. They are always a high risk/high reward investment which in my case require a large margin of safety.

    Floods, earthquakes, volcanoes, snow, SARS, war, political instability, business confidence, economic growth, terrorism you name it
    Last edited by Jaa; 26-01-2011 at 10:34 AM.

  4. #524
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    Today's news

    It would also look at reducing Government shareholding in national carrier Air New Zealand, he said. (John Key)
    No surprises there.

  5. #525
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    In today's other news, more expansion from Air NZ, Paraparaumu - Auckland flights.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10702105

    Lots of Executives and IT people live around Kapiti so should be plenty of demand. Also allows Air NZ some leverage on Wellington Airport.

  6. #526
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    No surprises there.
    Govts shouldnt interfere in the aviation industry fullstop. Labour wouldnt allow Infratil & Waitakere CC to develope Whenuapai, to "protect" AIR rather than in the best interests of air travellers in NZ

    Takes 55 mins to fly Wgtn to Auckland & another hour plus to get the North shore, Whenuapai is alot closer to Aucklands population than the current Mangere site

    Problem is the most logical buyer of the Govts stake in AIR would be Qantas, & the commence comission has already boo hooed that tie up previously!

    Who would want a major stake in AIR, when they would most likely be forced to run unprofitable domestic routes to get around the OIO?
    Last edited by shasta; 26-01-2011 at 11:49 AM.

  7. #527
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaa View Post
    In today's other news, more expansion from Air NZ, Paraparaumu - Auckland flights.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10702105

    Lots of Executives and IT people live around Kapiti so should be plenty of demand. Also allows Air NZ some leverage on Wellington Airport.
    See my last post, AIR dont own any of Wellington Airport, but Infratil do own 2/3rds of it (Wgtn city council the other 1/3), & the last Labour Govt showed a bias towards AIR, to prevent IFT from competing with them.

    Another reason why the Govt should sell its AIR stake & mind its own business!

  8. #528
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaa View Post
    In today's other news, more expansion from Air NZ, Paraparaumu - Auckland flights.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10702105

    Lots of Executives and IT people live around Kapiti so should be plenty of demand. Also allows Air NZ some leverage on Wellington Airport.
    "It's all part of our constant drive to innovate in ways that save our customers time in their overall journey with new services such as self check in and Fast Bag."
    so Why did AIR take part in Blocking Whanuapai. Amazing how they can twist the story to suit them selves.

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  9. #529
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    Quote Originally Posted by shasta View Post
    Govts shouldnt interfere in the aviation industry fullstop. Labour wouldnt allow Infratil & Waitakere CC to develope Whenuapai, to "protect" AIR rather than in the best interests of air travellers in NZ

    Takes 55 mins to fly Wgtn to Auckland & another hour plus to get the North shore, Whenuapai is alot closer to Aucklands population than the current Mangere site

    Problem is the most logical buyer of the Govts stake in AIR would be Qantas, & the commence comission has already boo hooed that tie up previously!

    Who would want a major stake in AIR, when they would most likely be forced to run unprofitable domestic routes to get around the OIO?
    Would be interesting if govt sold to IFT.

  10. #530
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Would be interesting if govt sold to IFT.
    Maybe the NZ Super Fund could buy it off the Govt, they did a public/private deal with IFT to buy Shell's downstream assets

    Would keep ownership in the country (avoiding OIO issues) & its a conservative long term investment

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