-
26-01-2011, 10:49 AM
#521
Originally Posted by Hoop
On a technical basis Mr Market thinks so... CJ
The VBA.ax chart shows a sudden drop in its OBV indicator on the 21st January, this indicates on that particular day Mr Market assumes smart money exited the stock. It seems Air NZ provided the dumb money
I think Air NZ knows a bit more about the Australasian airline market than most, including significant inside knowledge!
The way they talked about the stake was almost as if they were a sharetrader
-
26-01-2011, 10:53 AM
#522
Originally Posted by Hoop
On a technical basis Mr Market thinks so... CJ
The VBA.ax chart shows a sudden drop in its OBV indicator on the 21st January, this indicates on that particular day Mr Market assumes smart money exited the stock. It seems Air NZ provided the dumb money
This could be an interesting test. What timeframe do we need to revisit this on to determine who was smart and who wasn't?
How is OBV calcuated.
Investopedia explains On-Balance Volume - OBV
OBV attempts to detect when a financial instrument (stock, bond, etc.) is being accumulated by a large number of buyers or sold by many sellers. Traders will use an upward sloping OBV to confirm an uptrend, while a downward sloping OBV is used to confirm a downtrend. Finding a downward sloping OBV while the price of an asset is trending upward can be used to suggest that the "smart" traders are starting to exit their positions and that a shift in trend may be coming.
Surely be definition then a large puchase by one of many smaller shareholdings has to be a decreasing OBV?
-
26-01-2011, 11:32 AM
#523
Originally Posted by modandm
That would be interesting. I would also enjoy your musings on potential VBA/AIR codeshare agreements on longhaul flights and the prospects of both VBA and Etihad joining star alliance.
I see minimal benefits at this stage. Branson has always been anti large alliances.
Pooling of spares for 777-300s seems to be the only concrete example so far but many airlines do this quietly anyway.
Also what do you reckon AIR is worth? It is great talking about airlines but I would also be interested to hear your views on the company as an invesment.
I only do rough broad brush valuations as I don't think there is value in much more as sharemarkets look forward and businesses and industries constantly change. I prefer to invest based on business momentum. So let me just say more, lots more. Morningstar have a valuation of $2.15.
They are currently are large % of my nz portfolio
This is not something I would not recommend as any and everthing bad that happens in the world can and does affect airlines. They are always a high risk/high reward investment which in my case require a large margin of safety.
Floods, earthquakes, volcanoes, snow, SARS, war, political instability, business confidence, economic growth, terrorism you name it
Last edited by Jaa; 26-01-2011 at 11:34 AM.
-
26-01-2011, 12:34 PM
#524
Originally Posted by Hoop
Today's news
It would also look at reducing Government shareholding in national carrier Air New Zealand, he said. (John Key)
No surprises there.
-
26-01-2011, 12:39 PM
#525
In today's other news, more expansion from Air NZ, Paraparaumu - Auckland flights.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10702105
Lots of Executives and IT people live around Kapiti so should be plenty of demand. Also allows Air NZ some leverage on Wellington Airport.
-
26-01-2011, 12:45 PM
#526
Originally Posted by percy
No surprises there.
Govts shouldnt interfere in the aviation industry fullstop. Labour wouldnt allow Infratil & Waitakere CC to develope Whenuapai, to "protect" AIR rather than in the best interests of air travellers in NZ
Takes 55 mins to fly Wgtn to Auckland & another hour plus to get the North shore, Whenuapai is alot closer to Aucklands population than the current Mangere site
Problem is the most logical buyer of the Govts stake in AIR would be Qantas, & the commence comission has already boo hooed that tie up previously!
Who would want a major stake in AIR, when they would most likely be forced to run unprofitable domestic routes to get around the OIO?
Last edited by shasta; 26-01-2011 at 12:49 PM.
-
26-01-2011, 12:48 PM
#527
Originally Posted by Jaa
In today's other news, more expansion from Air NZ, Paraparaumu - Auckland flights.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10702105
Lots of Executives and IT people live around Kapiti so should be plenty of demand. Also allows Air NZ some leverage on Wellington Airport.
See my last post, AIR dont own any of Wellington Airport, but Infratil do own 2/3rds of it (Wgtn city council the other 1/3), & the last Labour Govt showed a bias towards AIR, to prevent IFT from competing with them.
Another reason why the Govt should sell its AIR stake & mind its own business!
-
26-01-2011, 12:51 PM
#528
Originally Posted by Jaa
In today's other news, more expansion from Air NZ, Paraparaumu - Auckland flights.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10702105
Lots of Executives and IT people live around Kapiti so should be plenty of demand. Also allows Air NZ some leverage on Wellington Airport.
"It's all part of our constant drive to innovate in ways that save our customers time in their overall journey with new services such as self check in and Fast Bag."
so Why did AIR take part in Blocking Whanuapai. Amazing how they can twist the story to suit them selves.
Disc: Shore Boy.
-
26-01-2011, 01:06 PM
#529
Originally Posted by shasta
Govts shouldnt interfere in the aviation industry fullstop. Labour wouldnt allow Infratil & Waitakere CC to develope Whenuapai, to "protect" AIR rather than in the best interests of air travellers in NZ
Takes 55 mins to fly Wgtn to Auckland & another hour plus to get the North shore, Whenuapai is alot closer to Aucklands population than the current Mangere site
Problem is the most logical buyer of the Govts stake in AIR would be Qantas, & the commence comission has already boo hooed that tie up previously!
Who would want a major stake in AIR, when they would most likely be forced to run unprofitable domestic routes to get around the OIO?
Would be interesting if govt sold to IFT.
-
26-01-2011, 01:45 PM
#530
Originally Posted by percy
Would be interesting if govt sold to IFT.
Maybe the NZ Super Fund could buy it off the Govt, they did a public/private deal with IFT to buy Shell's downstream assets
Would keep ownership in the country (avoiding OIO issues) & its a conservative long term investment
Tags for this Thread
Posting Permissions
- You may not post new threads
- You may not post replies
- You may not post attachments
- You may not edit your posts
-
Forum Rules
|
|
Bookmarks