AIR - Air NZ.

[nick00]

Thanks macdufffy

Yeah i do remember reading that he said something along the lines of 'the best thing that could happen to investors would be for someone to go back in time and kill the wright brothers before they made their flight'

I have a small holding in AIR so will be keeping an eye on them

[modandm]

Interesting week ahead for AIR followers. VBA 1H results tomorrow and AIR 1H results on Thursday.

My take as a Preview:
VBA:
Not going to be a great result - they have had their challenges of late with floods, and a highly competitive Australian domestic market. All the while going through a costly rebranding exercise which is soon to be unveiled (rumors of thursday 24th feb might be premature - we will see). The transformation of VBA0 will be an ongoing and drawn out process but I think they are on the right track. Its a shame for VBA holders the company is not better positioned now as the climate for airlines at present is as good as it has been for some time.

AIR:
I'm expecting results to exceed expectations and forecasts. Operating statistics have been good and AIR has positioned itself effectively to be attractive to leisure and business customers alike. Load factors and market share is up across the board and particularly on the Tasman as a result of the new fare product. Yield might be slightly weaker TT but this has been offset by factors mentioned. The arrival of the 2nd and 3rd 777-300er heralds a year of growing profitability for AIR as fuel costs continue to be trimmed while revenue per passenger is enhanced through new product offerings.

What im particularly excited about:

VBA: New livery, possible discussion of joining an alliance or transpacific codeshares with AIR

AIR: Possible new aircraft to compensate for 787 delays, new routes announcements to start after RWC,

[CJ]

The market has been hammering AIR for the past couple of days, starting on Tuesday before the quake. The results look good but maybe not good enough? Or is this because people expect lower tourism numbers and internal flights within NZ going forward?

Down to 1.30 now

Disc: the big drop on Tuesday triggered my order which I wouldn't be so unhappy about if the quake didn't hit a just 1 hour later.

[winner69]

Doesn't seem that Air NZ got many votes in this poll

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/469973...survey-slammed

As Phar said "We are the first responders on the plane," Phar said, "and I don't see that looks have anything to do with that." so it doesn't really matter does it

[winner69]

CJ signs off CJ
Free delivery worldwide with Book Depository http://www.bookdepository.co.uk

CJ - most times I find www.fishpond.co.nz cheaper than Book Depository - also free delivery and delivery bloody fast even from overseas

[CJ]

CJ signs off CJ
Free delivery worldwide with Book Depository http://www.bookdepository.co.uk

CJ - most times I find www.fishpond.co.nz cheaper than Book Depository - also free delivery and delivery bloody fast even from overseas

I have found bookdepository cheaper from experience and when the NZ Hearld did a survey comparing bookshops to the online shops, this was proved as well. Though at the moment Amazon UK is cheaper as you can get supersaver delivery (free) as their prices are cheaper, but delivery (if charged) makes it more expensive.

[modandm]

I have found bookdepository cheaper from experience and when the NZ Hearld did a survey comparing bookshops to the online shops, this was proved as well. Though at the moment Amazon UK is cheaper as you can get supersaver delivery (free) as their prices are cheaper, but delivery (if charged) makes it more expensive.

Not sure what this has to do with AIR or why it is posted here...

Anyway on topic: Results were good I thought although a little light on strategy going forward - new routes, potential additional lift etc.

Numbers were good but not great. Normalized profit of 94m (taking out 18m gain on equity swaps which I don't think should be included)
I did the EPS calculation on a FY profit of $205m which is conservative with the RWC scheduled. Even if the oil price goes higher the rest of the FY is ~90% hedged. Next year is a different story but imho the oil price will settle back down to 80-90USD barrel in the next few months. The world economy cannot afford high oil prices right now.

Have AIR on:

FY11 EPS of 19c
PE of 6.93 at $1.31

Seems very low to me and clearly the spiking oil price and terrible events of the last few days is having a strong effect on the appetite and sentiment for the stock.

I for one am picking up stock at 1.31

[CJ]

Seems very low to me and clearly the spiking oil price and terrible events of the last few days is having a strong effect on the appetite and sentiment for the stock.

I for one am picking up stock at 1.31

Well it keeps falling (closed at 1.28) and it hasn't gone ex div yet so that isn't the excuse. I assume with oil going up (increased costs or if passed on, reduced demand), Chch earthquake effecting tourism numbers, and oil increases effect global growth, this is pulling AIR down.

Now I know airlines are meant to be a good way to lose money but I thought it was different this time (when will I learn).

[waterboy]

started dropping when announced buy in to virgin then dropped more when gov announced it wanted to sell down, oil price on top of this.

[Blendy]

thanks to everyone (in all threads) who post all the interesting charts and calculations. I've never studied anything relevant to share trading at school or university, so all the in depth analysis you guys come up with makes for great reading. I'm learning a lot from this place!