AIR - Air NZ.

[shawsie]

Christchurch will weigh on AIR considerably more than Japan.

The lead time to change schedules, airframes etc to meet changing demand is substantial. If you can see 10 empty seats on a flight, given the way all airlines price these days, then that flight is losing money.

I dont follow point 2. The fuel hedge will be fully costed in I would have thought.

Now, can I please have some light shed on the TA approach to a shareprice that has gone through the long term lower channel. Are there TA points that AIR will now test? Or do you give ity over to the FAs to find a new floor?

[CJ]

PS...Blackcap ..an example of TA before the event........... not in hindsight as you say we all do

So TA predicted Chch, Oil prices and Japan - Who needs Ken Ring?

[Phaedrus]

Can I please have some light shed on the TA approach to a shareprice that has gone through the long term lower channel. Are there TA points that AIR will now test? Or do you give it over to the FAs to find a new floor?

TA based attempts to predict future AIR support levels would be little better than FA attempts to define AIR's "value" and expect the stock to bottom out there.

Shawsie, no-one, no system, can tell you where the current downtrend will end. Technically, it is very easy to suggest possible levels at which AIR might again find support.... or not. I could post such a chart if that is what you want, but the fact is that the current downtrend will continue until the market decides on the new floor. Monitor the downtrend. It is the one reality that you can observe in real time and all else is of secondary importance.

[winner69]

A shocker of an announcemet and the share falls 5%-6% .... whoops I forget that many have already bailed over the last few weeks ... the lucky ones or the wise ones?

[CJ]

A shocker of an announcemet and the share falls 5%-6% .... whoops I forget that many have already bailed over the last few weeks ... the lucky ones or the wise ones?

It has now droped 30% since its recent highs and 21% since the chch earthquake.

[castelinop]

13 cents drop, now it ain't looking too good for AIR. Almost free falling.

[shawsie]

Hoop

I get your drift,

the price of TA (to paraphrase Voltaire on democracy) is constant vigilance

whereas FAnalysts knew about the change agents, shouldnt have been too hard to work out the elasticity on earnings, but it took the announcement to start the orderly stampede to the exits.

I take a huge random stab in the dark and surmise that Net Tangible Assets puts a floor on sp, it is worth what it is worth and that takes us to somewhere near the global minima of 75cps.

Under that you go down an interesting path that includes signifance of national carier, export value of NZ tourism, goodwill etc. I wouldnt necessarily buy it as a going concern but I'm pretty damn sure it wont be sold for parts.

Heh maybe itll bounce back to 116 tomorrow.

Yeah right

[shawsie]

Thanks Hoop.
Even the most fervent TA must be interested in the fundamentals of the company, surely? We are in the game of predicting the future, and while TA gives you patterns, there are leading indicators and future events that you can, with little bias, be confident about.

Hoop, your note to wait for the turn around contains a value judgment.
When Hanover rolled to Allied, at 20c ish, I didnt think ALF would turn around. Wouldnt have touched it with your money. Equities are boiunded by zero, and sooner or later thats where they will all end up.
Shareholders are the least secured of all creditors.

I am confident all equitues will get pummelled as Japanese contagion spreads.
AIR especially.
I think AIR will turn around, but not soon and not sharply.

[modandm]

No offence but I really wish we could keep the FA vs TA argument in another thread and keep this on-topic. If there is something FA or TA that is AIR specific that you would like to share by all means post it here.

I just don't want to have to troll through everyones 'system' and people self validating explanations of their trading approach. This sort of content belongs in the investment strategies section IMHO.

Please don't flame me and lets keep it on topic. Cheers

UPDATE:
Hoop - I don't think post removal was so necessary (especially indiscriminate removal of your posts). I have no problem with a post with TA insights relevant to the stock or a chart link being posted - infact I enjoy your and others posts of that nature. What I am against is full screen posts arguing and rebutting others points on the merits of TA vs FA bloating threads. Hope you don't feel targeted. Regards Mod

[Hoop]

No offence but I really wish we could keep the FA vs TA argument in another thread and keep this on-topic. If there is something FA or TA that is AIR specific that you would like to share by all means post it here.

I just don't want to have to troll through everyones 'system' and people self validating explanations of their trading approach. This sort of content belongs in the investment strategies section IMHO.

Please don't flame me and lets keep it on topic. Cheers

Fair enough...
All posts by me since end of February deleted
No offence taken
Cheers
Hoop