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Thread: AIR - Air NZ.

  1. #621
    Senior Member
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    Auckland, , New Zealand.
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    Default

    It sounded to me that AIR now had (or were looking for) an "excuse" to get out of the EMA for whatever reason


    Disc - Do not hold at present

  2. #622
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    Jan 2004
    Location
    Waimate, , New Zealand.
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    310

    Thumbs down

    Must be making heaps.
    $1900 for 2 one way Auckland to Cairns.. without food!
    Pat
    Prediction is hard even with the crystal ball.

  3. #623
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Received the below comments from my travel agent today. He has been in the industry for a long time. I found the comments interesting so thought I'd share them here.

    "Its amazing how the flights globally are filling up in the past two / three months it’s a different year than normal. Air NZ are doing very well and appear to be in the leading bunch of Airlines World Wide, they are doing all the correct things in their operation thus lots of Brownie Points with customers and we receiving great reports back from clients who are regularly fly with them."

    Discl: Hold Air NZ
    I am hearing the same things too.We are "well positioned" for the upturn.!

  4. #624
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    Masterton, , NZ.
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    Miminmoke - you need to watch the interview again I think AIR have been spot on

  5. #625
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    A nice little run for AIR up to touch $1.20 today. I see there have been a number of new holders on this board coming in at levels around 1.10-1.15 and I congratulate you. As evidenced by my posting I am a strong believer in AIR and it is my largest holding at present across both asx and nzsx stocks.

    Looking at the chart it is now clear that the beginning of an uptrend is forming. I would appreciate any technical views on the stock.

    My view is that the august results announcement will be a catalyst for further improvement in the shareprice. I am not expecting a great result - no doubt the 2nd half has been absymal, but am looking for strong guidance for fy12 stemming from:
    1. Strong forward bookings for the RWC and into the all important Summer. (most of the companies profits are generated in a few busy months)
    2. Yield uplift on LH routes
    3. Increased market share and profits on the TT (early indications from VBA alliance)
    4. Further guidance around fleet changes (including 777-200er refurbishment) and potential new routes.
    Manchester is looking the most likely next new route at this stage.

    Mostly a rerating of the stock towards a P/Book of 1 and a PE of 14-16 on FY12 earnings. Taking the stock towards $1.50-$1.70

    As usual I will be summarising the latest operating stats next week. Looking back you will remember I was quite disappointed with the May figures - lets hope for a better June.
    Last edited by modandm; 20-07-2011 at 11:54 AM.

  6. #626
    Advanced Member BIRMANBOY's Avatar
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    Yes, sitting on a nice profit....always tempting to sell and run ...but will hold as I think has quite a bit more movement yet long term and I am really after dividends anyway.
    Quote Originally Posted by modandm View Post
    A nice little run for AIR up to touch $1.20 today. I see there have been a number of new holders on this board coming in at levels around 1.10-1.15 and I congratulate you. As evidenced by my posting I am a strong believer in AIR and it is my largest holding at present across both asx and nzsx stocks.

    Looking at the chart it is now clear that the beginning of an uptrend is forming. I would appreciate any technical views on the stock.

    My view is that the august results announcement will be a catalyst for further improvement in the shareprice. I am not expecting a great result - no doubt the 2nd half has been absymal, but am looking for strong guidance for fy12 stemming from:
    1. Strong forward bookings for the RWC and into the all important Summer. (most of the companies profits are generated in a few busy months)
    2. Yield uplift on LH routes
    3. Increased market share and profits on the TT (early indications from VBA alliance)
    4. Further guidance around fleet changes (including 777-200er refurbishment) and potential new routes.
    Manchester is looking the most likely next new route at this stage.

    Mostly a rerating of the stock towards a P/Book of 1 and a PE of 14-16 on FY12 earnings. Taking the stock towards $1.50-$1.70

    As usual I will be summarising the latest operating stats next week. Looking back you will remember I was quite disappointed with the May figures - lets hope for a better June.

  7. #627
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    Default June operating stats summary

    June is about your typical total pax month at 1056. Substantially more than May 892 - but well less than peak months of 1200+.

    All % are pax growth yoy (revenue passenger kilometres) and Load factors unless otherwise mentioned.

    total pax 2.3% improvement but still below trend of 5%+ for 2011

    Domestic 3.2% w 80.7% LF - A weak result vs trend but LF is okay

    Tasman/Pacific 13.1% w 85.5% LF - Great result! Ash cloud benefits to AIR on display

    Long Haul overall (8.7%) - improvement from Japan offset by weaker performance for UK/USA

    UK/USA (6.3%) w 88.6% LF - disappointing growth (why? people waiting to come for RWC instead?) Load factors excellent very very good capacity management.

    Asia/Japan (8.9%) w 78.6% LF - improvement here beyond expectations and a good Load factor too. (capacity to Japan was significantly lower - matching demand)

    Asia ex Japan 1.0% w 79.6% LF - decent but below average ~3%. Good LF improvement from May.

    Yields:
    Group - up 2% yoy
    Short haul - down 1.7% yoy (prior were negative 3.2,2.8,2.6) likely this reflects selling high priced fares during ash cloud and unlikely to be sustained.
    Long Haul - up 4.3% yoy - have been consistent at 4.3%-4.6% for 4 consecutive months - 77W benefits here and good capacity management sustaining higher prices.

    Overall commentary:

    A nice result with a great shorthaul performance due to the ash cloud. A poor UK/US balanced by some signs of improvement out of Asia and Japan that we have been waiting for.

    Rating 6/10 - A substantial improvement on the May numbers I thought were poor.

    Domestic pretty steady as usual - nothing to write home about. Looking to a good Sep-Oct.

    Looking forward I expect ongoing lower yields on shorthaul - price scanning reveals fares are really affordable (e.g middle of RWC return from sydney for ~$400-$440) and even Xmas and NY fares are pretty cheap vs what I am used to seeing from AIR. I expect Sh yields to average -3% over next few months at least before stabilising (when?). My hopes are that this is an indication that AIR feel the strategy is paying off (i.e lower yields + higher LF > higher yields + lower LF). It will be interesting to hear at the Results presentation how successful Seats to Suit has been in dollar terms though we may not get that info.

    Longhaul was a bit sick overall this month and the deteriorating pax growth on US UK should be cause for concern. Japan still poor but good to see some turnaround.
    Last edited by modandm; 26-07-2011 at 04:25 PM.

  8. #628
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    Default updated analyst targets (post June op stats)

    credit suisse - $1.34 (20% discount to valuation $1.68 reflects jet fuel yield and fx risks)
    DB - $1.55

    Mac Bank - yet to update.

  9. #629
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by modandm View Post
    credit suisse - $1.34 (20% discount to valuation $1.68 reflects jet fuel yield and fx risks)
    DB - $1.55

    Mac Bank - yet to update.
    Craigs research 26/7/11 Price target - 12mths $1.55.

  10. #630
    Dilettante
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    Thanks for your good summary and comments modandm. I have just booked 2 trips to Europe in the next 2 months and was surprised at how highly priced AIR is compared to say Singapore and Thai.

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