AIR - Air NZ.

[couta1]

Nice work Roger, and the second to last paragraph hits the nail on the head as to why the share price has fallen IMO.

[Beagle]

Dear Leila,

Thank you for your e.mail and information and for the opportunity to speak with Mr Carter on Thursday 19th 1.15 p.m. (Note she subsequently suggested 1.15p.m. as a better time for Mr Carter)
That time suits fine and I look forward to discussing this matter further with him at that stage. My office number is noted below.

I know the directors and senior managers are extremly busy people so its perhaps helpful in terms of time saving to mention I'm fully cognisant of the Qantas report and outlook statement, its impact on QAN's share price and the fact that globally many airlines share prices have come under pressure in recent times for a range of reasons including the threat of increased competition.

I accept the explanation of the Virgin position at face value so its perhaps best if we concentrate on the issue of whether the investor day presentation contained any material information of which the market wasn't already aware. Leaving out the part cents, based on my observations on the 4 traders website, see link below, consensus market forecast before and after the investor day presentation were for earnings per share as follows:-
Forecast year Before After (This formatted better in my e.mail)
FY 16 56 56
FY17 55 52
FY18 42 38

You can see these consensus forecast changes by clicking on the Consensus and Revisions tabs towards the top of the page in the link below to the 4 traders website.

While it is accepted that consensus market expectation was for a very slight decline in FY17 earnings before the investor day release this was only by 1 cent per share from 56 cps in FY16 to 55 cps in FY17 but after the investor day release these expectations were lowered by a further 3 cps to 52 cps for FY17. I also note FY18 consensus view was lowered by 4 cps and consensus valuation was lowered from $3.26 to $2.82.

The fact that several analysts changed their recommendation rating on AIR stock after the investor day briefing and the fact that the company itself marked the release of same as price sensitive in my opinion is prima facie evidence that the information contained therein was not already totally in the public domain.

It might appear that I am splitting hairs here however whilst it is conceded that these downgraded earnings post investor briefing are not huge in absolute terms in the context of known additional competition forthcoming, in my opinion they are nonetheless real and certainly do leave open the perception that management took advantage of the situation and as you know I am certainly not alone in my view on that.

The main thrust of my effort as expressed before is aimed at the question of is there a better way to handle this sort of thing in the future so that restricted persons are both seen to be acting with 100% integrity and perceived to be ?

I am sure it goes without saying that many shareholders are very disappointed in the present share price of AIR and were shocked earlier this year when Virgin required shareholder support at a time when oil prices are so low. For what it's worth from what I hear most shareholders are looking forward to AIR extricating themselves from their stake in Virgin.

http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEA...407/revisions/

Anything else interested parties in this matter want me to bring up with Mr Carter ?

[RTM]

Yes, thanks for taking this on Roger. Appreciated.
RTM

[sb9]

Great work there Roger, well done.

[Biscuit]

Great to see a proactive approach. One small point:

"...... that restricted persons are both seen to be acting with 100% integrity and perceived to be...""seen to be" and "perceived to be" are the same thing. Otherwise good stuff.

[Joshuatree]

Yes ,great stuff Roger. Am looking forward to when the Insto churn dies down and hopefully some retrace in the s/p.

[IAK]

Appreciate your efforts Roger.

[Jay]

Thanks Roger - interesting to hear the outcome of your call

[freddagg]

Anything else interested parties in this matter want me to bring up with Mr Carter ?[/QUOTE]

There is the issue of the cargo settlement Roger.
Obviously it was price sensitive and the executive must have known about it.

[Beagle]

Anything else interested parties in this matter want me to bring up with Mr Carter ?

There is the issue of the cargo settlement Roger.
Obviously it was price sensitive and the executive must have known about it.[/QUOTE]

Agreed, I will definitely raise that issue. I checked and its good that their general counsel involved in the settlement negotiations wasn't one of the sellers. If he had of been we'd have a real mess here.

Thanks for your encouragement folks. Feels good to at least try and make a difference.