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Thread: AIR NZ

  1. #12921
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    good result... tho yet to read into details...

  2. #12922
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny1 View Post
    Yep not bad! On track for possibly their second best full year result.
    Direct service up to 5 times a week to Taipei from this November was a bit of a surprise. All the talk has been on Obama coming to help launch flights to Chicago
    Yes second half outlook better than I expected and yes you are right mate, they're starting the 777-200 replacement program earlier than I expected in 2022. Have to re-gauge my expectations regarding special dividends in the early 2020's. That said their new liquidity policy looks like they trying to drive their balance sheet a little harder which is possibly a good thing. Hope they get some thoroughly deserved absolutely whopping discounts on the Trent engines on those A350's if they choose to go that way,
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  3. #12923
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    Quote Originally Posted by SylvesterCat View Post
    Bit harsh winner. They're trying to tell the story of how they've offset fuel cost increases; they're not trying to excuse it. Hence my comment on "self-help".
    Still a gross misrepresentation - so early in the presentation

    And isn’t that 27% in the circle pretty big - all you see really

    Beagle says creative ....I say misleading and disappointing

    Even worse than Sky City excluding any above average winnings by the high rollers
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  4. #12924
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    Is it worth reading past Page 5
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  5. #12925
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Still a gross misrepresentation - so early in the presentation

    And isn’t that 27% in the circle pretty big - all you see really

    Beagle says creative ....I say misleading and disappointing

    Even worse than Sky City excluding any above average winnings by the high rollers
    maybe air just want to show how good their operation and cost control is? excluding things that they cannot control?

  6. #12926
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Is it worth reading past Page 5
    Yes mate. No point getting one's tail in a spin over how they talk about jet fuel price differences, in my opinion. Get your snout into the rest of it and let us know your thoughts. Pretty resilient result I reckon but that said I'm not sure how they'll cope in FY19 when they don't have such attractive fuel hedging in place ?
    Last edited by Beagle; 22-02-2018 at 09:38 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  7. #12927
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    read page 21

  8. #12928
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Still a gross misrepresentation - so early in the presentation

    And isn’t that 27% in the circle pretty big - all you see really

    Beagle says creative ....I say misleading and disappointing

    Even worse than Sky City excluding any above average winnings by the high rollers
    We can't have any of those fat cats losing any of their bonuses for non performance winner, creative enough to fool the punters aye.

  9. #12929
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Yes mate. No point getting one's tail in a spin over how they talk about jet fuel price differences, in my opinion. Get your snout into the rest of it and let us know your thoughts. Pretty resilient result I reckon.
    Just hate companies, esp those who tout high levels of governance and transparencies, who misrepresent things so badly...they could have just used Page 9 ...more honest

    If they had just said fuel costs were up a lot but we managed to recover most of that from blah blah all the good ...but touting a 27% increase in earnings come on.

    Sent my feelings to Luxon anyway ...but he probably won’t listen

    Won’t say anymore
    Last edited by winner69; 22-02-2018 at 09:49 AM.
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

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  11. #12931
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    Quote Originally Posted by workingdad View Post
    h

    Pays to take the journos out for a few lunches eh
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  12. #12932
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    h

    Pays to take the journos out for a few lunches eh
    Yes i think you have a point there. No question that some media were invited on the very recent 1.5 hour A350 demonstration / sales pitch flight out of Auckland. Probably had a nice lunch after that hosted by some pretty Air Hostesses and senior management. Influencing the press to write good articles ?...you be the judge.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  13. #12933
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    sounds like great management to me haha

  14. #12934
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    My take on this result would be..if AIR repeats or exceeds last year's stellar results, then i see no reason for it to be back in its 340's range...(subject to jet fuel surge)...

    Mr.Trump keep fracking mate!

  15. #12935
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    Quote Originally Posted by workingdad View Post
    sounds like great management to me haha
    As cunning as a hungry Beagle Pleased and pleasantly surprised with the solid outlook. Increased interim dividend gives confidence their base dividend level is now 22 cps per annum which is 30.5 cps inclusive of full imputation credits which gives a gross yield of exactly 10% at the current SP of $3.05.
    Currently trading cum an 11 cent fully imputed dividend record date, 9 March. Time for the dividend hounds to reconsider their position given the yield and solid outlook ?
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  16. #12936
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    Quote Originally Posted by babymonster View Post
    read page 21
    Page 4 is interesting

    Earnings before tax Dec15 $457m and Dec16 $349m and Dec17 down to $323m

    Seems a downward trend and full year looks pretty flat

    And we want to share price to go higher .....remember AIR is very cyclical
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  17. #12937
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Still a gross misrepresentation - so early in the presentation

    And isn’t that 27% in the circle pretty big - all you see really

    Beagle says creative ....I say misleading and disappointing


    Even worse than Sky City excluding any above average winnings by the high rollers
    Just a little influence from John Key speak oozing through

  18. #12938
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Just a little influence from John Key speak oozing through

    Possibly ...with a bit of help from Joyce maybe
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  19. #12939
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    wow...11c dividend in 2 weeks...

  20. #12940
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    From the call the information you really want to know...

    RR engine issue. Chris Luxon said - Brilliant progress is being made on working our way through that. We have a very good relationship with RR.
    Expect to have this concluded by mid April 2018.This is VERY good news !

    Dreamliner to be put on the 11 hour flight to Taipai - 4-5 times a week.

    14th leased Dreamliner will fully cover expected fleet requirements until 2022. 2021 expected to be a gap year in capex unless short haul capacity growth is required faster than expected due to demand growth exceeding expectations.

    I note:- 2020 also a low year for capex.

    My thinking - All going well expect good special dividends in 2020 and 2021 and they move to lower their need for working capital and work their balance sheet more efficiently. (previous liquidity guideline $1 - $1.5b, new one $700m - $1.0b)

    Looks like a pretty good dividend hounds stock for the foreseeable future.
    Last edited by Beagle; 22-02-2018 at 12:00 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

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