AIR - Air NZ.

[OldGuy]

Still above the 1000MA - that's good

Spooky thing it bounced off the 1000MA when it reached the 203/204 mark a few weeks ago

How long is a 1000 (trading) days

about 4 years assuming 50 weeks * 5 trading days per week

[BlackPeter]

Today is going to be another watershed day when the price bursts well into the 220's

Interesting prediction ... which tools do you use to come to this conclusion?

[winner69]

Interesting prediction ... which tools do you use to come to this conclusion?

A time weighted volume momentum indicator in tandem with a sharetrader sentiment index

Worked well when price was down at 205

[Big Blind]

A time weighted volume momentum indicator in tandem with a sharetrader sentiment index

Worked well when price was down at 205

Is that with or without the flux capacitor?

[workingdad]

Not sure air can in anyway be compared to microsoft. Let's see how big the special divi is and the market reaction before the back slapping commences. Still think most here are underestimating the financial impact of new carriers into airs previous monopoly/ most profitable routes.

What do you see the impact of the competition? I agree perhaps it has been underestimated by some but with NZ tourism and global tourism in general going through the roof is there not the headroom for some competition?

Inmigration is another increase in demand and NZers are also traveling more.

Fuel hedging looking good and oil price outlook relatively subdued.

I'm not saying 2017 or 2018 will be record profits but I don't think it's all doom and gloom and at current SP undervalued.

[winner69]

Is that with or without the flux capacitor?

I'll ask Emmett if including a flux capacitor would help

[Beagle]

Not sure air can in anyway be compared to microsoft. Let's see how big the special divi is and the market reaction before the back slapping commences. Still think most here are underestimating the financial impact of new carriers into airs previous monopoly/ most profitable routes.

$200-250m before tax impact from new competition this year IMO. My estimate appears to be substantially higher than average analyst estimate. I still think the market has over reacted to the effects of new competition but sentiment is what it is and until the company clarifies its IH17 outlook uncertainty will prevail.

[h2so4]

Not sure air can in anyway be compared to microsoft.

Exactly right. So why would you risk 54% of your portfolio for a Dividend strip?
AIR is not exactly a hand basket case scenario.

[boysy]

Roger I think you are correct re to be analyst estimates. By giving monthly updates re operating stats I think we are watching a slow motion train smash as we will continue to see load factors fall across the most profitable routes. This isnt to say air nz are to start losing money anytime soon but the landscape is changing and more completion is seeing air nz dropping their pants to fill seats On the long haul routes. How much they can make back on the domestic routes once all the travelers is in nz is the million $ question. Still think holding out for a windfall special divi in these changing times Is a big call. Going forward with reduced profitability what is the long term sustainable divi level for air is the question ?

[workingdad]

Not sure about profit basis but domestic makes up about a third of passenger numbers.
Biggest grouping is short haul at nearly half and smallest is the Asia/Japan/Singapore which isn't even 5%.
Competition isn't exactly hitting the numbers across the board.
I look forward to guidance in EOY results but perhaps they paint a picture that is worse than they think to make it easier to out perform or understate it.....