AIR - Air NZ.

[BlackPeter]

Today is going to be another watershed day when the price bursts well into the 220's

whatever it is ... I think you need to review your tools - this prediction clearly did not work out

discl: my crystal ball is cloudy as well

[winner69]

Looks like a fair chunk of AIR revenue come from International flights. Unfortunately H1 reports don't seem to give yields for the different International sectors so just grouped into International in the table below

International 12% of passengers but 44% of revenues

Wonder what this table will look like for full year

[winner69]

whatever it is ... I think you need to review your tools - this prediction clearly did not work out

discl: my crystal ball is cloudy as well

I've had a chat with Emmett and he has told me how to utilise a flux capacitor in the model (as suggested by a poster this morning)

Will do that overnight and report back tomorrow

[Beagle]

I picked up a few more at the close at $2.16. Cheap enough relative to where other stocks are at and ultra low call rates @ AA- rated banks. Gotta put some money to work somewhere, won't get far in life with 2% interest on call. Vast majority of the NZX market is really very stretched at current prices IMO. OTOH It won't surprise any of you that I think all my other stocks are also good value LOL

[workingdad]

Looks like a fair chunk of AIR revenue come from International flights. Unfortunately H1 reports don't seem to give yields for the different International sectors so just grouped into International in the table below

International 12% of passengers but 44% of revenues

Wonder what this table will look like for full year

Thanks Winner, I reread the same update looking for this today and missed it..... Good to know. It will be interesting to see the full year one, but at least 56% of revenue is reasonably well entrenched re competition.

With international being 12% of passengers and 44% of revenue, this would be in line with the increased operating costs of international.

Interesting to see the yield in domestic is $0.275 versus international of $0.108 which is in line with RTFQ comment on domestic making most of AIRs profits.

[winner69]

Thanks Winner, I reread the same update looking for this today and missed it..... Good to know. It will be interesting to see the full year one, but at least 56% of revenue is reasonably well entrenched re competition.

With international being 12% of passengers and 44% of revenue, this would be in line with the increased operating costs of tition'international.

Interesting to see the yield in domestic is $0.275 versus international of $0.108 which is in line with RTFQ comment on domestic making most of AIRs profits.

Maybe not the whole 56% is 'well entrenched from competition' - the Trans-Tasman (27%) competition heating up

[Baa_Baa]

Almost text book trend line TA today, rising up to $2.195 to test the quite steep descending trend line from the highs (closing price basis) and falling back to retest the short term rising trend line support $2.16 (the MO of sell the afternoon and the close continues, they say it's the bunnies that open and the pros that close, so go figure on that one).. being picky, I'd prefer to have seen $2.17 support holding but slammorama into the close and it's $2.16. Unless there's some great news we don't know about odds are on that this will leak lower, in any event it appears range bound pending the dividend announcement, which means relatively minor risk +/- 5% to the upside or downside. Notwithstanding unexpected good or bad news.

[mikeybycrikey]

Thanks Winner, I reread the same update looking for this today and missed it..... Good to know. It will be interesting to see the full year one, but at least 56% of revenue is reasonably well entrenched re competition.

With international being 12% of passengers and 44% of revenue, this would be in line with the increased operating costs of international.

Interesting to see the yield in domestic is $0.275 versus international of $0.108 which is in line with RTFQ comment on domestic making most of AIRs profits.

I find it interesting that over the past couple of years, revenue from both Domestic and long haul have grown but Tasman seems to have stagnated in $ terms. That means that Tasman has dropped from 27% of rev to 24%, while Long Haul has gone from 41% to 44%, and domestic has stayed steady at 31%.

As Workingdad has mentioned, domestic yield is much higher at 27c/km than international at 10.8 c/km, but the fixed costs have fewer km's to spread the cost over, so yield should be higher.

It's pretty hard to know how profitable routes are based on yield (or RPK or load factor) alone.

[Raz]

I find it interesting that over the past couple of years, revenue from both Domestic and long haul have grown but Tasman seems to have stagnated in $ terms. That means that Tasman has dropped from 27% of rev to 24%, while Long Haul has gone from 41% to 44%, and domestic has stayed steady at 31%.

As Workingdad has mentioned, domestic yield is much higher at 27c/km than international at 10.8 c/km, but the fixed costs have fewer km's to spread the cost over, so yield should be higher.

It's pretty hard to know how profitable routes are based on yield (or RPK or load factor) alone.

Naturally its commercially sensitive info. they would not want route breakdowns being determined from what is public.

Low volume day..waiting for the next move by the market..my TA and econometric model says more likely to drift lower than higher re CP.

[winner69]

..my TA and econometric model says more likely to drift lower than higher re CP.

...with or without a flux capacitor