AIR - Air NZ.

[see weed]

Seems a lot of debate on AIR. Should we do a poll on SP ex divvy.

I think SP with be 2.35 to 2.40 prior and drop to 2.05 to 2.10 range ex.

Let me know if there's interest and I will start one

If it gains 5c every day between now and ex date which is in 7 buss. days. That would = 35c + today's closing price of $2.27= $2.620c. But it may not be 5c a day, so I will predict about $2.50c pre div and $2.15ish or higher ex div..

[workingdad]

If it gains 5c every day between now and ex date which is in 7 buss. days. That would = 35c + today's closing price of $2.27= $2.620c. But it may not be 5c a day, so I will predict about $2.50c pre div and $2.15ish or higher ex div..

If theres more insto sell off it stands to reason they may just be letting it climb every once and a while before dumping more on there but volumes this afternoon much more subdued than the mornings.

Be interesting as always to see how it plays out but I am going to hold onto the ones I have, long term in todays climate I think the risk versus benefit is weighing in favour of holding on to them. May top up myself ex divvy it if gets to that 2.02 resistance mark.

[Raz]

Load factors on AKL-LAX-LHR don't seem to have been affected by competition to date. I booked this flight 8 months ago and paid for an upgrade on both sectors and being Gold Elite thought I had a good chance of getting this. Wrong, missed on both sectors. Business and Premium Economy 100% full with full-fare pax according to cabin crew and Economy 95% full. AIR's decision to expand the profitable BP and PE seating in the 777-300ER aircraft makes sense and leave the competitive minimum-profit Economy seats to everyone else. I'm booked Premium Economy on LHR-AKL in a few weeks so will be interested to see if I can get the BP upgrade I paid for.

Air NZ service the usual efficient friendly and breezy service they are renowned for, nothing but compliments from passengers around me.

Usually now have limited luck on upgrades, pay full for BP or go without...I travel twelve return trips a year AUK to LAX for work , always full, just a question of what they are selling the economy seats for to ensure that. See many of the same characters on the flights so heaps of repeat customers. Tried Qantas earlier in the year and it sucked so changed back...

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/3...s-targets.html

Seems all the analysts have fallen into line with my thinking, (as expressed on here several weeks ago) of circa $500m before tax for FY17.

Interesting they all think AIR capable of sustaining 20 cps going forward, (I have double checked and can confirm they have more than ample imputation credits going forward)...guess they must have listened too and agree with management's point of view.

Wonder if they back tested it against balance sheet strength like I did, doubt any of them would have been working hard to do that on a Sunday...

Disc: Sitting by the dividend food bowl, tail wagging, waiting for premium steak.

P.S. Nothing too shabby with a target price of $2.20-$2.30 in 12 - 13 months time when there's 35 cents plus two forecasted 10 cent dividends (55 cents) in total dividends between now and then.

[mshierlaw]

Broke one of my rules on Friday & bought an airline.

Biggest problem was the boss called a H&S meeting @ 10.00AM (now for you share trading folks thats Health & Safety not Head & Shoulders) & that cost me 4 CPS (now for you non share trading folks that's Cents per Share not Cycles Per Second).

Anyway job done & risks fully understood, as always be comfortable with risks associated with your decisions. Only time will tell if I made the right decision on the day.

[Beagle]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/analyst...rgets-b-193617

He also addresses the issue of swirling rumours on his tenure at AIR. Well worth a listen if you have 23 minutes spare at some stage.

[Snow Leopard]

Interestingly the idea of a sustainable $0.20 per annum ordinary dividend for the foreseeable future, derived from a cash flow analysis, appears on this thread way back in mid-May.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

Interestingly the idea of a sustainable $0.20 per annum ordinary dividend for the foreseeable future, derived from a cash flow analysis, appears on this thread way back in mid-May.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

....and you had it increasing at 3% pa as well

I know you are a modest little tiger and prefer hiding in the undergrowth rather than being in the spotlight ....but if you reposted that today most here would be rapt, esp your dividend outlook and the valuations getting close to 3 bucks

Latest analyst reports are confirmation of your work - pity it took them 4 months to work it out as well

[Raz]

Interestingly the idea of a sustainable $0.20 per annum ordinary dividend for the foreseeable future, derived from a cash flow analysis, appears on this thread way back in mid-May.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Noted at the time although many may have missed it with the distraction of the share price diving.

[kiora]

So here is the latest Tiger Take on the medium term future of AIR. Calculated value is based on a cash flow model.

NPAT for 2016 - 2020 is derived from EBITDA figures from the brokers, AIR Announcements & Investor Presentations and the holes are filled with Educated Guessing.

Post 2020 everything is normalised long-term assumptions including that gearing is 50%, that AIR maintains fleet size, the average average fleet age is 9 years and normalised capex exceeds normalised depreciation by 20% - that digs into the available cash to give away a bit.

Another assumption is that from 2016 a total ordinary dividend of $0.20 raising at 3% pa thereafter is paid.

I have ignored VAH completely: if it is sold it is a one off; if it is kept then it may be a benefit, or not.

As you can see, I am slightly currently above current broker consensus of $2.82, but my value actually drops over the next two years and then ends up at $2.92 in June 2020.



Obviously a lot of people are not going to like the above but that is how I see it at the moment.

Do Do Your Own Research.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

That's one smart cat