AIR - Air NZ.

[Gizzajob I can do that]

Looks like its time for another Rogers poll, set it up son.

[hamish]

Beautiful day here in WLG. Circa 20 deg, no wind. Is is raining in Auckland I wonder ?! Just boarded another air NZ flight for the weekly commute. Looking out window I see 7 air NZ planes, engines on, propellers turning, happy staff/stuff. koru lounge half full on midday Saturday, people still flying

[Bobdn]

You don't get guaranteed wins at Sky City like you do here

If you have patience. Chances of failing in the market over a 20 year period with a diversified portfolio of 50 plus companies are virtually nil.Chances are you will do solidly.

Good article in the paper today about a minimum wage janitor who died at 92 with $8m USD in the bank. He was a buy and hold investor with 95 companies including Lehman Brothers. But if Lehman Brothers is just one of 95 companies who cares. I have TTK which is 2 per cent of my portfolio. I hate losing money but 2 per cent is never a figure that will keep me up at night. 5 per cent and above, Im getting twitchy.

[Beagle]

Looks like its time for another Rogers poll, set it up son.

Not possible. Everyone seems to have their own theory on SP performance ex divvy, I've got mine and am comfortable its based on a sound strategy that's well supported by available empirical evidence and previous studies undertaken and well supported by my own experience in the matter.

[Gizzajob I can do that]

Not possible. Everyone seems to have their own theory on SP performance ex divvy, I've got mine and am comfortable its based on a sound strategy that's well supported by available empirical evidence and previous studies undertaken and well supported by my own experience in the matter.

Roger that Roger, me old Cocker spaniel, lol

[boysy]

It appears as though many people that bought prior to the annual result announcement plan to sell ex div it seems many here forget the fact the SP could fall more than the 35c total divi. Still recon holders here continue to underestimate the impact of competition on routes where Air have hostorically enjoyed as their most profitable routes (how analysts can try and quantify the impact of competition which is heating up confounds me hence why I see further downside to earnings from further entrants competing on AIR routes). Ramping on this forum is almost reaching the heights of my recent AIR flight from San Fran at 38,000 feet.

[winner69]

It appears as though many people that bought prior to the annual result announcement plan to sell ex div it seems many here forget the fact the SP could fall more than the 35c total divi. Still recon holders here continue to underestimate the impact of competition on routes where Air have hostorically enjoyed as their most profitable routes (how analysts can try and quantify the impact of competition which is heating up confounds me hence why I see further downside to earnings from further entrants competing on AIR routes). Ramping on this forum is almost reaching the heights of my recent AIR flight from San Fran at 38,000 feet.

Fair enough comments but analysts (just like you and me) have to make some assumptions about things like growth to get a value.

Just as they try to assess he impact of competitin on AIR we try to assess the growth that the likes of Trilogy will achieve.

Will Craigs be right about future AIR rvnues? Will Craigs (rather bullsh?) revenue forecasts for Trilogy eventuate? Will mine and your expectations of Trilogy be spot on?

All based on assumptions - assumptions based on what we know and what we what we think will happen - and only some time in the future will we know how good we and these analysts were

[couta1]

it is gambleing--and anyone who thinks you can buy monday and get a div ,but would buy for the same price on Thurs with no div IMO is seriously misguided and probably one of those who is overweight in AIR--Its wishful thinking

I have a few plans in place depending on how the Aircoaster behaves Ex divvy, my personal opinion is it will drop around half the divvy amount before returning to its current level within 4 weeks. IMO the competition has been well factored into the current price and I'm quite happy to take my holding to around 70% of my portfolio total if it drops more than I believe is logical. So in summary my strategy is, if it drops a bit after going Ex, I buy more, if it drops a lot going Ex, I buy a lot more in order to bring my average down further. Sitting on an XOS holding whilst collecting an ongoing 20c divvy is more than fine by me,so skid you see whatever it does Ex divvy won't phase me. PS-Imagine if it doesn't drop at all or a small amount, it's happened before so not completely wishful thinking although unlikely.

[workingdad]

I think the drop could be dependant on the price it gets to before it goes ex divvy.

Bearing in mind trading range has been pretty much 2.15 to 2.25 with a 15 to 25c total divvy factored in over the last wee while and given the special was considerably more than most had considered and now a 35c total I would have expected the SP to go up more than it has but with instos selling down this has not happened complicating the predictions of ex divvy price.

Once the sell down is finished (if it does bearing in mind some probably have a plan to sell on the 7th and try to maximise price) SP should start to behave more normally. This is when the market price is more based on forward projections than the current basis of the tempting juicy divvy.

Its a guessing game but I am of the opinion there is still room for it to go up next week and regardless fair value would result in that $2 resistance being a temptation too good to pass up going forward but hey, only time will tell. Logic could be that extra 20c divvy should have pushed price to the 2.45 mark, then a drop relative to the divvy size down to 2.10 would be a nice easy calculation.....

Only plan I have is to park the AIR shares in the draw and take the divvys over the next few years and see how well management negotiate the competition - which I have confidence in and a basis for holding and of course the tailwinds to offset the competition aspect.

[voltage]

Well, all I know is AIR has a such a good product. Every time I travel the plane is full and they are so organised from start to finish unlike Jetstar. They are rated in the top small group worldwide.