AIR - Air NZ.

[nzspeak]

"I have seen a big Australian study with heaps of empirical evidence that showed that in most cases shares recovered the dividend paid within a few weeks" please don't take this as advice. If this was the case, in general, for all markets, it would be the easiest money making scheme in history and every smart investor would do this. Please use common sense before believing some of the posts on this forum.

[couta1]

"I have seen a big Australian study with heaps of empirical evidence that showed that in most cases shares recovered the dividend paid within a few weeks" please don't take this as advice. If this was the case, in general, for all markets, it would be the easiest money making scheme in history and every smart investor would do this. Please use common sense before believing some of the posts on this forum.

Lots of smart investors do do it,including many on this forum, just like traders make their money from market oscillations.

[OldGuy]

"I have seen a big Australian study with heaps of empirical evidence that showed that in most cases shares recovered the dividend paid within a few weeks" please don't take this as advice. If this was the case, in general, for all markets, it would be the easiest money making scheme in history and every smart investor would do this. Please use common sense before believing some of the posts on this forum.

what's your response to my comment on the previous page in relation to all this??

[OldGuy]

don't bother, roger. Let the rest of us utilise such strategies at the expense of those who refuse to believe their merits

[winner69]

For a company - like AIR - that earns a decent profit year after year: If the price didn't soon recover after going ex-divvy, it would eventually reach zero and the yield would be infinitely high. That's why the share price MUST eventually recover some of the value that it loses through the "ex-dividend" process.

You're welcome

So true oldguy - pretty logical eh

I think nzspeak understands this concept

[OldGuy]

the logic is overwhelmingly clear to me, so I can't see why others don't get it. *shrug*

[RTM]

For what its worth here is my perspective.

We are getting a large special dividend to reflect the record year that AIR enjoyed. Great.
The "normal" dividend is 10cents per half year. Hopefully this is baked into their financial planning. I am sure their major shareholder will encourage this.
I am sure the share price will drop after it goes ex....probably to around $2.00+-0.05
20c per share on $2.00 is a 10% dividend rate (a wee bit high ?), on $2.50 is 8% (about right ?)

So I would expect the share price to recover to somewhere between $2.00 and $2.5 over time.
If AIR can demonstrate that they can maintain and perhaps improve their normal dividend over time, maybe 2 years or so....then the dividend % will reduce as the share price appreciates.

Will be looking to buy some more at $1.9 or less. Other than that...I have enough.

[couta1]

the logic is overwhelmingly clear to me, so I can't see why others don't get it. *shrug*

It's not the job of naysayers to get it even if they do get it, get my drift.

[winner69]

the logic is overwhelmingly clear to me, so I can't see why others don't get it. *shrug*

Yeah like say 20 cent divie a year with no recovery 'ex div' AIR share price will be zero in 11 years time eh

[couta1]

Those pesky Instos loading up the sell side early today, shame otherwise the price would climb nicely I reckon,wonder who they are, NZ or international?