AIR - Air NZ.

[winner69]

Those pesky Instos loading up the sell side early today, shame otherwise the price would climb nicely I reckon,wonder who they are, NZ or international?

Didn't Balance say NZ instos lightening exposure to AIR and global instos buying foe the yield .....or something like that

Plenty of 'buyers' (shares bought) lately though eh

[Beagle]

Yup there is risk..so which investment/s on the NZX currently perceive is less risky and a more compelling case for you Skid?

I'd also like to know the answer to this Skid. I think most holders are fully cognisant of the risk of airline investment and AIR in particular but its all in the 5.8 forward PE and 14% gross dividend already, (I'd argue more than fully compensated) and with the market trading at a forward PE of ~20 what stocks offer a more compelling investment opportunity ?

[see weed]

Didn't Balance say NZ instos lightening exposure to AIR and global instos buying foe the yield .....or something like that

Plenty of 'buyers' (shares bought) lately though eh

Yes, there is plenty of buyers buying. Instos are selling a few at the top now, then will come back in after ex div. So they will have funds from the stock sold now, and then have have millions more to add to that Ex div, to then buy back at $2 to $2.10c, pushing price back up to...where ever.

[Beagle]

For what its worth here is my perspective.

We are getting a large special dividend to reflect the record year that AIR enjoyed. Great.
The "normal" dividend is 10cents per half year. Hopefully this is baked into their financial planning. I am sure their major shareholder will encourage this.
I am sure the share price will drop after it goes ex....probably to around $2.00+-0.05
20c per share on $2.00 is a 10% dividend rate (a wee bit high ?), on $2.50 is 8% (about right ?)

So I would expect the share price to recover to somewhere between $2.00 and $2.5 over time.
If AIR can demonstrate that they can maintain and perhaps improve their normal dividend over time, maybe 2 years or so....then the dividend % will reduce as the share price appreciates.

Will be looking to buy some more at $1.9 or less. Other than that...I have enough.

Broadly agree with you but note that a 20 cent divvy on theoretical ex divvy SP of $2.00 gives a 10% net return. (Divvies are fully imputed so the gross return is 13.89%).
I think if it drops slightly lower than $2.00 ex divvy it won't stay under that level for long.

[see weed]

Don't forget NPX holders are looking for a home, maybe a few coming here for a quick buck.

[winner69]

At the present rate of climb I don't think we'm being giving a stuff what the share price is next week - except happy

[BlackPeter]

It's not the job of naysayers to get it even if they do get it, get my drift.

Look couta, we do get that you are seriously committed on AIR and that your nerves might be therefore a bit more sensitive than normal if some people don't share your view on how the SP might develop.

Might be even an opportunity to develop a plan B in case it goes next week not the way as you think it does, but this is a different matter and obviously just your own business ....

There is however no need for name calling. If you can't take that some people here still try to bring some sense into this thread instead of joining into your (and others) "ramp it up" choir, than I am wondering how you would take a tanking of the AIR share price come ex-dividend?

As usual - people have different views, and if I remember your investment past, than you (as most others, including myself) didn't get it right every time. So maybe you just accept that not everybody is euphoric about AIR's SP development ... instead of just classifying them as "naysayers". Maybe they have just a different view point or a more open mind? Sure - they might be wrong, but who knows - they might be right either?

As well ... blaming the insto's for selling (as you did previously on this thread) ... did you ever wonder why the instos might be selling?
Sure - instos don't get it always right and maybe this is an amazing opportunity to buy cheap AIR shares (i.e. no need to complain). However - instos don't get it always wrong either, so maybe - just maybe - they are giving retail investors a signal worthwhile considering. No matter which one it is ... I don't think there is any reason to complain.

All good - just another interesting investment scenario with open ending ... and I am sure, the people who are following common investment sense will be o.k. next week, no matter which way the pendulum swings.

[Yoda]

its a stupid question , but what's the point in investing in dividend stocks, if they go down by the price of the div, and don't recover within a reasonable time .......?. I get the money, but then lose it on the SP drop. Correct ?.
One might as well then invest in low or no divvy stocks which don't go down at Record date ...

divvys are investment income. To take the same amount out each year to live on, from non-divvy stocks (that don't go down as there is no ex-div date ) are classed as trading? ( taxable )

Lets see how long it takes to normalise after ex div .
Surely divies are rewards to shareholders , not penalties where stocks go down and recover slowly like any other non div stock .

I have no idea what I'm talking about , but just putting my questions out there .......

[see weed]

Have the instos finished selling yet? sp looking stronger.

[OldGuy]

you are correct yoda. they must recover some of the SP drop otherwise the SP would eventually reach zero...