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Thread: AIR - Air NZ.

  1. #8461
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    A quick quote from Burton Malkiel which seems relevant to all this dividend stripping talk

    Any truly repetitive and exploitable pattern that can be discovered in the stock market and can be arbitraged away will self-destruct.
    He was talking about the January effect, the idea that the market rose more in January than other months. It was true right up until people noticed it, at which point it stopped being true. No idea what will happen in this case, but I'd be very wary of the idea that there's an exploitable pattern that will continue to exist in a complex market place.

    http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~s...et/malkiel.pdf

  2. #8462
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    Quote Originally Posted by mfd View Post
    A quick quote from Burton Malkiel which seems relevant to all this dividend stripping talk



    He was talking about the January effect, the idea that the market rose more in January than other months. It was true right up until people noticed it, at which point it stopped being true. No idea what will happen in this case, but I'd be very wary of the idea that there's an exploitable pattern that will continue to exist in a complex market place.

    http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~s...et/malkiel.pdf
    Agree with that.Just after you think you know what you are doing you find out you really don't

  3. #8463
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    Quote Originally Posted by mfd View Post
    A quick quote from Burton Malkiel which seems relevant to all this dividend stripping talk



    He was talking about the January effect, the idea that the market rose more in January than other months. It was true right up until people noticed it, at which point it stopped being true. No idea what will happen in this case, but I'd be very wary of the idea that there's an exploitable pattern that will continue to exist in a complex market place.

    http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~s...et/malkiel.pdf
    Yeah well I realised all that after doing a masters in financial economics...still doesn't really explain how a nobody like me can make approx. 250K trading this share in 12 months, just trading on clear osscelations of the share, never sold or bought at the absolute highs or lows. No special knowledge, surely blind luck would not last that long and with an efficient market can't happen?

    ps some good deal on grabaseat, go book some flights please:-)
    Last edited by Raz; 06-09-2016 at 06:26 AM.

  4. #8464
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    Interesting article on DS Roger. Thanks. Quaeritur: do we have a 45 day rule re DS on the NZX like the ASX?

  5. #8465
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    Looking more closely, they seem to have been 'lucky' to start their analysis when they did, looking at the graph the entire outperformance occurs in the first two quarters. Also no accounting for what would be relatively heavy trading costs to jump in and out of so many stocks.

  6. #8466
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    Quote Originally Posted by drcjp View Post
    Interesting article on DS Roger. Thanks. Quaeritur: do we have a 45 day rule re DS on the NZX like the ASX?
    No - Aussies brought in such rule to thwart the likes of Roger

    Dividend stripping more prelevant over there apparently
    Last edited by winner69; 06-09-2016 at 08:18 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #8467
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    Pre-market bids indicate for strong open, let's see how the day folds out...any predictions for today's closing price, my pick is around 240 level...

  8. #8468
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raz View Post
    Yeah well I realised all that after doing a masters in financial economics...still doesn't really explain how a nobody like me can make approx. 250K trading this share in 12 months, just trading on clear osscelations of the share, never sold or bought at the absolute highs or lows. No special knowledge, surely blind luck would not last that long and with an efficient market can't happen?

    ps some good deal on grabaseat, go book some flights please:-)
    Good on you, I'm not an expert on stock trading but from my time trading sports markets I know it takes an incredibly long time to distinguish skill from luck with any confidence.

  9. #8469
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    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    Pre-market bids indicate for strong open, let's see how the day folds out...any predictions for today's closing price, my pick is around 240 level...
    Jeez - 240 today ......245 tomorrow .......220 ex divie ......it really was manna from heaven
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #8470
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Jeez - 240 today ......245 tomorrow .......220 ex divie ......it really was manna from heaven
    how about 245 today, 250 tomorrow,215 ex div. maybe too greedy.

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