AIR - Air NZ.

[sb9]

So. There we go. Big question is what will it open at tomorrow.

Well closed at 241, adjust divvy of 35c, that's 206 to kick things off at least...my pick is it'll get past 210 very quickly.

[Beagle]

So there we have it, closed at $2.41. FA and D.S. been thoroughly discussed but interestingly the clear break through the 100 day moving average now looks like a well entrenched new pattern. We've had five clear trading says now and volumes have been consistently at or over 4 million shares a day, about twice the average daily volume based on last time I checked the average which I admit was a little while ago.

Clear and rising break on much stronger than usual volumes so I expect the SP dividend adjusted to continue to follow the break trend. I expect it to open tomorrow at about $2.06 and find support about that level and see it build a new base from there and gradually recover the dividend paid. Stock offers what management believe to be a sustainable fully imputed dividend across the cycle of 20 cps so that's 20/0.72 / 206 = 13.48% gross dividend yield going forward...at a time when interest rates are the lowest they've been in sixty years. I calculated a while back they have net negative capex of $50m over the remainder of the fleet upgrade cycle for the next 3 years, (based on 71 cents US), and then 5-6 years of tremendous free cash flow. Obviously they're in an even better capex position if we sustain 74 cents U.S. or head even higher.

Enjoy your massive dividend folks

[Gringo]

So it's ex-dividend from now on, so buying tomorrow = no dividend on those shares later this month. But does this mean that we can definitely sell tomorrow morning and retain the dividend on those shares sold?? Thanks. I'm happy with that closing price so no big drop under 200 tomorrow... Need to reduce a bit now and wondering if 10am tomorrow best, or wait a few days?

[simjp81]

I'm hoping for a quick recovery to somewhere in the 220's. Time will tell.

Enjoy those dividends everyone. And thanks for all the responses and conversation over the last month or so leading up to this.

[Cool Bear]

hey guys, share is still trading in OZ, now at 235. If it close at that, then that is NZ242.6 less 35 is 208. May be a last minute rush and a couple cents up?

[Raz]

Dividend probably in bank on same day as national super payday .....super all round

Might gorge out - both scallops and oysters with the chips for lunch on the beach -- and sneak some decent wine in a plain pack because alcohol not allowed in public eh

Can't all have a long week end in Dubai like Mrs Raz

A pleasing day for AIR, I will be keeping a wary eye for anyone eating scallops and oyster with chips on Lake Wakatipu in the coming week after their luxury day of skiing, actually there is enough of us floating about that we could have a Queenstown share trader meeting. Nice time of year down in Central Otago generally in September (except people trying to fly out tonight) and always attend a annual conference here mid September every year.

Tomorrow will be an more interesting day for AIR.

[Snow Leopard]

...I calculated a while back they have net negative capex of $50m over the remainder of the fleet upgrade cycle for the next 3 years, (based on 71 cents US)...

I do not see how you could have arrived at that figure:

The annual results presentation Slide 21 gives aircraft+associated assets capex of approx:
$650M + $700M + $570M = $1,920M

less progress payments of $420 (FS Note 11) = $1,500M

depreciation for same will be of the order of:
$380 + $400 + $420 = $1,200M

a net growth capex (outflow) of $300M.

They will probably 'borrow' half of that.

They had total future commitments for aircraft+ of $2,210M (FS Note 22) which are otherwise not on the books.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[simjp81]

hey guys, share is still trading in OZ, now at 235. If it close at that, then that is NZ242.6 less 35 is 208. May be a last minute rush and a couple cents up?

How's it looking Cool Bear?

[777]

Closed A$2.34

[RTM]

So there we have it, closed at $2.41. FA and D.S. been thoroughly discussed but interestingly the clear break through the 100 day moving average now looks like a well entrenched new pattern. We've had five clear trading says now and volumes have been consistently at or over 4 million shares a day, about twice the average daily volume based on last time I checked the average which I admit was a little while ago.

Clear and rising break on much stronger than usual volumes so I expect the SP dividend adjusted to continue to follow the break trend. I expect it to open tomorrow at about $2.06 and find support about that level and see it build a new base from there and gradually recover the dividend paid. Stock offers what management believe to be a sustainable fully imputed dividend across the cycle of 20 cps so that's 20/0.72 / 206 = 13.48% gross dividend yield going forward...at a time when interest rates are the lowest they've been in sixty years. I calculated a while back they have net negative capex of $50m over the remainder of the fleet upgrade cycle for the next 3 years, (based on 71 cents US), and then 5-6 years of tremendous free cash flow. Obviously they're in an even better capex position if we sustain 74 cents U.S. or head even higher.

Enjoy your massive dividend folks

Logically you are perhaps right. Working against the logic are all the unknowns in the airline industry....
Which way is the dollar to go ?
Fuel prices
Intense competition already signalled.
USA Elections.
Summer political unrest in Europe with pressure in immigration again.
Brexit
etc.
I think these and other factors will weigh on the AIR share price a bit more heavily than you perhaps have allowed for.
Yes...I will enjoy my dividend as well. Great !

RTM.