AIR - Air NZ.

[RupertBear]

Was thinking of holding onto my (big for me but small for most people) shares until they went up to what I paid for them (whenever that may be) but I am now worried that what is happening overseas will cause the share price to fall even further. I am thinking it might be wise to sell off some at a loss but in anticipation of buying them back when the sp goes down. Hmm what are peoples thoughts on the current situation please. Many thanks

[Beagle]

Watch out you don't get churned Rupert Bear. U.S. market could easily bounce back on Monday. The airline index was up about 4% on Wednesday in the U.S. (Thursday our time) and AIR didn't react positively to the more substantial index rise then so why should we react negatively to a smaller decrease just because it corrected a bit on Friday ? Well run airline on compelling fundamental's, substantially better value than QAN. P.S. I remember the old days I felt proud owning 500 AIR shares..Rome wasn't built in a day

[RupertBear]

Watch out you don't get churned Rupert Bear. U.S. market could easily bounce back on Monday. The airline index was up about 4% on Wednesday in the U.S. (Thursday our time) and AIR didn't react positively to the more substantial index rise then so why should we react negatively to a smaller decrease just because it corrected a bit on Friday ? Well run airline on compelling fundamental's, substantially better value than QAN. P.S. I remember the old days I felt proud owning 500 AIR shares..Rome wasn't built in a day

Thanks Roger, think I will continue to hold. I might just not look at the sp for a day or two and let my nerves settle

[winner69]

Watch out you don't get churned Rupert Bear. U.S. market could easily bounce back on Monday. The airline index was up about 4% on Wednesday in the U.S. (Thursday our time) and AIR didn't react positively to the more substantial index rise then so why should we react negatively to a smaller decrease just because it corrected a bit on Friday ? Well run airline on compelling fundamental's, substantially better value than QAN. P.S. I remember the old days I felt proud owning 500 AIR shares..Rome wasn't built in a day

Good advice - but if Rupert convinced there going to be a global crash he should sell all the stocks he owns and avoid the grief

So 500 shares once - probably when they were $14 odd

[workingdad]

its how the big fish make money, sell off quickly at a hint of bad news, cause everyone else to sell, buy back in a day or three later and laugh at the millions of money and 2% they just made...... Without things like brexit ect how would they make their money???

[Snow Leopard]

...As for Qantas being bargain cheap how would they know as the company declined to issue a forecast for FY17 ? but noted competition and revenue pressure. I think they're in much the same situation as AIR and their FY17 earnings will get a haircut much like AIR's and wouldn't be surprised to see their EPS much the same as AIR's is in FY17 as was the case in FY16...yet their shares at ~ $3.30. Which shares are really the bargain ?

Because even without a forecast any one who can do airline analysis can make a set of assumptions and come up with a value for that airline.

So for AIR the set of circumstances that results in a consensus value of $2.24 gives a valuation for QAN of $4.35.

So Qantas IS the bargain, it is that simple.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[tim23]

Relax buy more if price goes down the reasons for you buying should remain in tact.

[Snow Leopard]

Figures are 2016 ballpark:

AIR revenue per share: $4.63 [ $5,200M / 1,123M ]

QAN revenue per share: $8.31 [ $16,200M / 1950M ]

QAN:AIR rps ratio 1.79:1

Now assume that QAN can in future achieve similar margins to AIR (and there are no reasons why they can not)...

DYOR

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: no QAN, no AIR

[fish]

Figures are 2016 ballpark:

AIR revenue per share: $4.63 [ $5,200M / 1,123M ]

QAN revenue per share: $8.31 [ $16,200M / 1950M ]

QAN:AIR rps ratio 1.79:1

Now assume that QAN can in future achieve similar margins to AIR (and there are no reasons why they can not)...

DYOR

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: no QAN, no AIR

Thank you so much for this PT.
Revenue is what is most important if costs can be reduced and margins increased.
It will however be difficult for many reasons for QAN to achieve similar margins-and if possible will this not take years?
I worry about you posting at this time
Where in the world are you and what time is it?
best
Fish

[Jantar]

Yes. it was Korean, Asiana Airlines Flight 214. A Boeing 777-200 ER. We were talking about it our local flying club shortly after the event, and even our student pilots present had more take-offs and landings than both 777 pilots combined. Despite their combined flying time of over 20,000 hours their actual hands on flying experience was severely lacking. One pilot had some hands on as a military pilot, the other had almost none at all. Neither had ever done a visual approach in a 777.