AIR - Air NZ.

[scottwalshnz]

Just reading through the monthly investors update where they are talking about the changes to the Airpoints programme.

Airpoints have split from FlyBuys and are allowing members to earn points through New World, Z and Mitre 10, and a number of other retailers and service providers. Interesting changes.

It got me wondering if AIR will be looking at selling off part of Airpoints in the next few years. That strategy has made pretty good money for other airlines in the past few years.

The opposite, they are more tightly embedding it. A number of companies are leaving the Flybuys program and instead moving to Airpoints (eg New World, Z). This locks people into the Airpoints program.

[Nasi Goreng]

There was even one of those Death Crosses around the 280 mark - that that doesn't seem to be that long ago

No Golden Cross yet

and then a huge head and shoulders break at around 250. The chart looks terrible right now, 1.70 - 1.80 is a possibility and then down to $1.50 which would seem absurd but stranger things have happened.

Of course, things could change immediately and we may be finding a bottom now. You can understand why buyers are hesitant having made lower lows but on the fundamental side, you can understand why new buyers may enter at around this price. At this stage, I've got a modest holding and I'm glad I've resisted the urge to top up and I don't think I will be, even if it goes to those lower levels.

[Snow Leopard]

Douglas Adams. Remember to carry a towel whenever you fly!

The Head of Marketing along with a team of the Sirius Cybernetics Corporations finest Robots are on the way to you right now with the all new beta* version of the Interactive Report Reader.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

*the original beta version is still sulking.

[simjp81]

Im out. So long AIR. Its been a turbulent ride. Bought first round at $3.015 then a few times on the way down to around $2.05 at the lowest and then the last lot at $2.27 before the duv was announced. Too big a gap to kake up and i dont have the time to wait. Unfortunate but im new to this and have learned a lot. I have a resonably small amount of capital so have put it all in FNZ, MDZ, and DIV. Will continue to learn and build. Thanks to all for your comments, help and discussion on AIR over the last 4 months.

All thise still in, enjoy the ride and i wish you luck.

[Poet]

Does not look promising does it?

So there is a little tolerance in the figures due to rounding but here is what we have.

Short Haul Year To Date Revenue Year on Year:
Jul: 99.36%
Aug: 99.26%

Long Haul Year To Date Revenue Year on Year:
Jul: 99.99%
Aug 98.62% << worrying - if you were not expecting it.

Still 10 months to go and anything can happen - we just hope it doesn't.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

I for one, will be very happy if they can keep the reduction in income at these levels for the rest of the financial year. This would imply revenue only down around $60m for full year, based on last years passenger revenue of $NZ4.5b.

Admittedly, there will most probably be extra costs yoy associated with providing more ASK's but on the face of it, fuel costs, at least, look as if they will be down yoy.

Last year fuel costs were $NZ846m from financial statements
This year projected usage from last fuel hedge disclosure is 8.7m barrels. If we use AIR's assumption of $US55 per barrel (so $NZ683m at 0.7 exchange rate) that's a full year saving of $151m

(Maybe I'm missing something here re the cost of fuel hedging being included in the $846 m fuel cost in financial statements, experts welcome to correct me)
Anyway, doesn't seem too bad a start to the year IMO

[Snow Leopard]

I for one, will be very happy if they can keep the reduction in income at these levels for the rest of the financial year. This would imply revenue only down around $60m for full year, based on last years passenger revenue of $NZ4.5b.

Admittedly, there will most probably be extra costs yoy associated with providing more ASK's but on the face of it, fuel costs, at least, look as if they will be down yoy.

Last year fuel costs were $NZ846m from financial statements
This year projected usage from last fuel hedge disclosure is 8.7m barrels. If we use AIR's assumption of $US55 per barrel (so $NZ683m at 0.7 exchange rate) that's a full year saving of $151m

(Maybe I'm missing something here re the cost of fuel hedging being included in the $846 m fuel cost in financial statements, experts welcome to correct me)
Anyway, doesn't seem too bad a start to the year IMO

I am the Tiger who got the fuel year estimate high by 33m. But my guess for FY2017 was $829M at an average spot of $44 for Brent, that was before the latest hedging figures came out (sorry been a bit lazy ).

Not thought through the rest of the expenses in great detail but a wild guess would be a 'moderate' increase overall.

But all this sort of thing is hopefully catered for in that barn door $400M to $600M PBT range.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

I for one, will be very happy if they can keep the reduction in income at these levels for the rest of the financial year. This would imply revenue only down around $60m for full year, based on last years passenger revenue of $NZ4.5b.

Admittedly, there will most probably be extra costs yoy associated with providing more ASK's but on the face of it, fuel costs, at least, look as if they will be down yoy.

Last year fuel costs were $NZ846m from financial statements
This year projected usage from last fuel hedge disclosure is 8.7m barrels. If we use AIR's assumption of $US55 per barrel (so $NZ683m at 0.7 exchange rate) that's a full year saving of $151m

(Maybe I'm missing something here re the cost of fuel hedging being included in the $846 m fuel cost in financial statements, experts welcome to correct me)
Anyway, doesn't seem too bad a start to the year IMO

Yes absolutely. Over the medium term oil prices and yield are inextricably linked so most people with a good understanding of the industry like you do, understand that with cheap fuel comes more competitive airfares so the two items need to be considered in tandem. For those that follow this company closely there is nothing concerning in today's stat's when viewed in the context of the bigger picture.

[winner69]

FY17 fuel costs

Poet calculates $683m / the striped one guesses $829m

So $146m difference ....hmm

No wonder trying value AIR is so difficult

[winner69]

Back in June an unnamed analyst in a NBR story about AIR “I don’t think this management team or any airline management have a strong ability to forecast the future,”

About says it all

[Snow Leopard]

FY17 fuel costs

Poet calculates $683m / the striped one guesses $829m

So $146m difference ....hmm

No wonder trying value AIR is so difficult

The question for Poet would be:
Using the same approach to calculating fuel costs what should it have cost AIR last year and my how much does his result differ from the figure in the accounts.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger