AIR - Air NZ.

[OldGuy]

you really need to work with dividend adjusted prices for this to add any value to the debate (IMHO)

Attachment 8300

Here's the weekly log scale chart (the Tiger would beat me up if it was arithmetic), showing the 4-year bull run and clear uptrend. It also shows the breakdown and the new down trend lines, but not the H&S pattern which performed to text book (hat tip to Xerof and Hoop) and the current situation vis a vis the Fib's and the $1.80 and $1.35 supports mentioned earlier.

What this capital value chart doesn't show is the whole story, and a capital value chart never will (Snoopy taught me that), the part about the missing 'gross' value including dividends. This confines the chart to being useful for a new entry, a capital sensitive investor, or a medium term trader. But that's also why I like the weekly charts.

[skid]

But remember winner in 2015 at 474 million profit the share price was in the $2.50 -$2.70 range so at 500 million odd for F17, share price currently seriously undervalued aye. PS-Talk of 300 mill and corresponding graphs is a red herring mate.

They have warned it could be 400mil..Half---may not end up being that bad, but its safely out of the ''red herring'' category

Meanwhile,have a good time partying on that dividend (but dont necessarily expect new investors to finance it by buying in at a premium to cover the loss to the companies value) You know what they say about having the cake and eating it too..

[Arbroath]

But remember winner in 2015 at 474 million profit the share price was in the $2.50 -$2.70 range so at 500 million odd for F17, share price currently seriously undervalued aye. PS-Talk of 300 mill and corresponding graphs is a red herring mate.

There is one big difference couta - in 2015 many were thinking it was blue sky for earnings in 2016 and they did deliver 806m pre tax which was impressive. If they do 450-550m in 2017 its on the way down, and the worry will be 2018 might be 300-350m.

Don't get me wrong I'm long as I think across the cycle they can deliver 20cps dividend and are worth $2.00-2.50 based on 8x earnings across the cycle. I particularly like the virtuous cycle of new aircraft being more fuel efficient which enables AIR to compete very effectively. Also despite the serious competition getting passengers to/from NZ AITR has a huge domestic franchise with 85-90% market share and more people coming to NZ enhances that, acknowledging Jetstar are muddying the domestic yield a little.

[Jay]

Most charts don't seem to adjust for dividends paid and mostly it is not significant (as Pharedus has said, don't sweat the small stuff), but when it is nearly 15% of the price makes a huge difference to charts.
The Data I subscribe to does not seem to adjust for dividends, anyone know free data that does??

[bonmaklad]

I don't like to pick bottoms but I am already planning to double up on AIR shares if it goes below 1.9.... the yield becomes too tempting! My BE is below 1.8 and if it ever did reach there.... I may pull out....

It is strange. I valued AIR at 2.81 before confirmation of profit and now it's been confirmed, I now value at 2.98... So I am very much looking forward to riding this up past 2.4 from October to February.

- Apparently Delusional -

[Xerof]

Also despite the serious competition getting passengers to/from NZ AITR has a huge domestic franchise with 85-90% market share and more people coming to NZ enhances that, acknowledging Jetstar are muddying the domestic yield a little.

I'm not sure Jetstar are doing much 'damage' to AIR. They made AIR honest with pricing years ago, and quite frankly, have assisted making AIR into the great airline it has become today. Nothing wrong with competition is there....look how sharp they have become right across the company

I saw some figures recently that stated Jetstar had increased passenger volumes (not sure what actual measurement it was) by 39%, and AIR had also increased by 2.4% on a like-for-like basis. The only thing thats happening is the flying pie is growing, (which I said a few years ago when people got all tichy and antsy about Jetstar growing it's routes) and the smaller operator is picking a good share of the 'new' flyers up (which makes sense, as it would most likely be that segment of our demographic who haven't flown much in the past due to the expense)

As you say, AIR still has 80/85% of domestic - there is nothing to worry about.....is there?

[Xerof]

Most charts don't seem to adjust for dividends paid and mostly it is not significant (as Pharedus has said, don't sweat the small stuff), but when it is nearly 15% of the price makes a huge difference to charts.
The Data I subscribe to does not seem to adjust for dividends, anyone know free data that does??

Most recent charting packages, (being the past 15 to 20 years) and the attendant plethora of indicators were designed for FX markets, where there is 24 hour trading, no dividends, splits, rights issues, etc etc to distort the data. I don't know of any free charts that allow adjustments to equities. Maybe Esignal does, but it's certainly not free, nor is the data stream.

Oh, I have just now seen Hoops has posted an excellent response on this subject over at TA HQ. I suggest you read that post

[Jay]

Thanks Xerof
Read and understood ... I think!

[h2so4]

I don't like to pick bottoms but l -

...bad habit.

[skid]

I don't like to pick bottoms but I am already planning to double up on AIR shares if it goes below 1.9.... the yield becomes too tempting! My BE is below 1.8 and if it ever did reach there.... I may pull out....

It is strange. I valued AIR at 2.81 before confirmation of profit and now it's been confirmed, I now value at 2.98... So I am very much looking forward to riding this up past 2.4 from October to February.

- Apparently Delusional -

Everyone else has tried to pick the bottom all the way down from $3--no reason why you should not give it a try!