AIR - Air NZ.

[skid]

So 1.70 - we'll see

Treaterous - love that description, implies many of the smart ones on this thread are looking forward to many treats in coming months

I knew that didnt look quite right when I typed it!..blame spellcheck for not bailing me out! (but my gut told me it was right,seaweed

[Snow Leopard]

I have been meaning to add dividend compensation to my charting software for ages and the AIR special was the catalyst to try and do it.

In the course of adding a feature a few other features broke but here for you delight we have the last 4 months of AIR:

Blue/Green/Red curves are 15/50/200 day EMA

Without dividend compensation:


With dividend compensation:


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS Off to see Sully this evening

[winner69]

Bottom chart looks pretty healthy - and an uptrend still in place

[Xerof]

Nice work PT. It is as my jaundiced eyeball thought it looked like - higher highs and higher lows, since the CD 2.02 low.

Nobody has been brave enough to mention exiting the NZX15 today, but I guess that's been the recent overhang, and there was very little left to be done by the looks after the close today, just a couple of hundred K. TBH, I have no idea of just how many funds would have had to exit, let alone volumes, but no turbulence was observable in the end.

[Baa_Baa]

@PT nice chart, it will look betterer and betterer the farther back the dividends are added in, just like the nzx50 gross is about 3x the nzx50 capital. Good work, getting cracking on that back data and fixing the broken bits. 👍🏻🤓

[Gringo]

AIR has become a kind of Contrarian investment for me now, to hold medium term - until something drastic changes with the company, or it gets high PE overvalued again & div. yield drops. No one rings a bell at the bottom to indicate max. pessimism, but quite happy to go against the herd and increase at these 2yr-low prices... "Buy in gloom, Sell in boom". And a healthy income to compound growth along the way. No worries

[Raz]

AIR has become a kind of Contrarian investment for me now, to hold medium term - until something drastic changes with the company, or it gets high PE overvalued again & div. yield drops. No one rings a bell at the bottom to indicate max. pessimism, but quite happy to go against the herd and increase at these 2yr-low prices... "Buy in gloom, Sell in boom". And a healthy income to compound growth along the way. No worries

The key to me is that AIR can refine its processes however this will have no material bearing on its potential or its current future, its potential to perform better than expected comes down to one aspect and that is the fuel price. An analyst mentioned to me 45 airlines directly/indirectly expected to be in NZ market place this year.

When the fuel price rises this is when competition will drop off and in turn potential market size will change, RPK etc., in time. People are now in this for the dividend stream as we have been provided with a forecast from AIRs management, (which in the current environment is a little unusual) which should be aiming to set realistic expectations. The only excuse for missing this forecast for management is a black swan event otherwise they are raising pressure & questions on how competent they are.

So those that staying in, are here for yield while those offloading are not seeing it, performance and in turn SP, and often selling from an earlier and lower buy in price.
That is important as the later are still currently a large percentage of the holders, volumes daily are still solid.

You have much clarity on this share and its prospects now as you are likely ever to get. If you are after yield and want your cake as well, buying in at the optimal share price, then you should already be out of the market and waiting for the turn..good luck determining the shadow inventory, think you will be using a lot of energy agonising over that one.

If you are happy for the potential yield as forecast, then you should just ride it out and place your energy in to a more productive pursuit! Unless you like to trade:-)

[boysy]

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/new...ectid=11711085

Cheaper fares anticipated to keep coming. No doubt these cheaper fares have to be bought in specific windows ahead of time but the pressure will certainly be on air to drop fares to keep the planes full. Good mention of AIRs previous Hawaii monopoly with fares falling from $2500 return 2 years ago with specials now under $700 from other operators.

[skid]

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/new...ectid=11711085

Cheaper fares anticipated to keep coming. No doubt these cheaper fares have to be bought in specific windows ahead of time but the pressure will certainly be on air to drop fares to keep the planes full. Good mention of AIRs previous Hawaii monopoly with fares falling from $2500 return 2 years ago with specials now under $700 from other operators.

And thats whats its all about folks--We have seen the numbers for the past--Its the future, the market is concerned with--It all comes down to company performance=Share price (after deducting the influence of international markets in general)---so its by no means a simple equation--(the numbers were pretty good all the way down from $3)
Those buying for the dividend--I think most have realized that this is not a clear cut ''gift''--this was a big one and although most came out in the black,all that risk some took, ended up for 4-6c in the clear (and nothing if you waited for the last week)..not the kind of thing you go to the bank and get a loan for.
There may be an influence from fuel cost,but it all boils down to market share--bums on seats,and what it takes to get them there (the balance sheet could suffer or maybe things can carry on with last years strategy of a premium for the brand--So keep your ears open and listen to what the ordinary public are saying---Are they raving about the now cheap prices to XX or are they saying ''no way on that airline''.....its a complicated mix

so far what Im hearing is the general public is raving about the prices and some of the business customers(at least the ones on here),talking about brand.

[Xerof]

If my inbox is any judge of competitiveness on International, then yes they are marketing very hard on that. Not so much on domestic though, and if my daughters experience in trying to get AKL to PN yesterday is indicative of domestic loadings, then bring on the international competition - they are ferrying passengers to the AIR and Jetstar domestic terminals in their droves. yippee

She had a booked flexi on the 6pm, went out early to change to the 3pm - FULL. 5pm - FULL, so was left with her original seat. Regrettably that was delayed 2 hours, then broke down on the tarmac, so cancelled. There are no other spare seats direct to PN until Sunday, so she went to Kapiti Coast this morning.


Anyway, you get my point - the domestic near-monopoly appears to be in good heart, even if the tin cans are overheating at times

Flight saga update: my daughter just emailed to say 2 unsuccessful attempts to land at Kapiti, so diverted to PN...her boyfriend is waiting at Kapiti though....

I did tell her to go Jetstar - they are far more reliable, read the on-time stats