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Thread: AIR - Air NZ.

  1. #9031
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Hi Black Peter

    I take it from your recent posts you are not going to buy any AIR shares in the foreseeable future
    I don't intend to buy any AIR shares NOW. Not sure about your term "foreseeable future" - as far as I am concerned no mortal being can foresee it - and we might leave the discussion about the non mortals for some other thread.

    However - what I can predict is that I won't buy any AIR shares as long as the confirmed downtrend is intact. If & when the downtrend breaks (no matter whether this is next month, next year or later) am I likely to review the fundamentals at that stage and will make a buy / not buy decision based on fundamentals I can't foresee (sic) at this stage.

    Does this help?
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  2. #9032
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    I don't intend to buy any AIR shares NOW. Not sure about your term "foreseeable future" - as far as I am concerned no mortal being can foresee it - and we might leave the discussion about the non mortals for some other thread.

    However - what I can predict is that I won't buy any AIR shares as long as the confirmed downtrend is intact. If & when the downtrend breaks (no matter whether this is next month, next year or later) am I likely to review the fundamentals at that stage and will make a buy / not buy decision based on fundamentals I can't foresee (sic) at this stage.

    Does this help?
    Yep, i know prediction is very difficult, especially about the future ....so goodness what you will be doing in the future
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #9033
    The past is practise. Vaygor1's Avatar
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    I will know tomorrow why the things I predicted yesterday didn't happen today.






    (Not original - adapted from elsewhere)

  4. #9034
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Red face This surprised even me

    Just remember I do not think buying airline shares is a good idea - OK?

    Let me be pessimistic and assume that for FY2017 AIR earns $0.314 ps and for each year after that there profit is 80% of the prior years, so

    FY2017 $0.314
    FY2018 $0.251
    FY2019 $0.201
    FY2020 $0.161
    FY2021 $0.129
    FY2022 $0.103
    FY2023 $0.082
    FY2024 $0.066
    FY2025 $0.053
    FY2026 $0.042

    pretty dire prediction - that would be most peoples hope.

    Now you need two things to pay a fully imputed dividend:
    1/ Cash (ie cash flow)
    2/ Imputation Credits

    So pull a few numbers out of the FY2016 financial statements and investor presentation and assume that they do not spend much on new planes over that time frame (which is a reasonable assumption but they will need to looking at 777 replacements before the end).

    Now I could have this wrong but I believe they could pay a flat $0.20 in annual dividends for each and every year up to and including FY2025.

    It would not be sensible to do so if that profit curve or similar proved true, but it does illustrate that they do have some flexibility to weather some bad times.

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger

    Disc: still not buying AIR or similar.
    om mani peme hum

  5. #9035
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Default Always look at the big picture ...

    Nice scenario PT, and while I don't think it is pessimistic, it is obviously highly unrealistic.

    Airlines earnings historically seem to move roughly in 7 year cycles - though often overlaid by other effects (like economical crisis, volcano eruptions, losing planes for various reasons, epidemics, political crisis, fuel price hikes, acts of terrorism).

    As well ... during the peak times every Tom, Dick and Harry tend to found a new airline to join into the money making business. OK - maybe not every, but too many. Virgin and Richard Branson spring to mind as well as Origin Pacific (founded by Robert Inglis, so admittedly no Tom or Harry), but there are many more. Add to that financially strong competitors happy to add the odd flight to New Zealand as well as airlines trying new routes (South America this time?), and what happens every time is that in good earning phases everybody tries to get a big slice of the cake.

    Result: margins are rapidly squeezed given that there are only so many bums around but only full planes make money.

    Which means ... in my view is the 500m profit before tax estimated for this year already optimistic (but possible, if everything goes according to plan), but the competition will heat up for the 2017 holiday season. I doubt, whether this means just a further 10% drop in earnings (as analysts seem to assume). Margins squeeze in the airline industry looked less friendly in the past.

    How do your data look if you assume for 2017 the 500m (I am an optimist ...), for 2018 half of that - and for 2019 again only half of 2018)?

    After that (assuming a 7 year cycle) things might move up again.

    BTW - just made another interesting observation ... even the professional optimists (analyst consensus at 4 traders) predict for 2018 and 2019 that the AIR dividend will be below 20 cents. They seem to think that 2018 will be the low point, though. Not saying that I trust their consensus, but it is unusual that they are pessimistic related to popular stocks ...
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  6. #9036
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    lol ,it would be nice if the thread optimists who have apparently gone bush would man up and tell us there plan now that things have gone astray.
    anyway I own air as part of my diversified portfolio so I not worried about falling share price as overall my portfolio is still up. I sense the bush walkers may have too much on this one share which would be a bad mistake to put all there eggs on one share
    Man up? Umm not sure what you want. I'm just tired of some of the discussion on AIR of late. Seems to be some that revel at others expense and dialogue of a nature I don't have much interest in.

    That aside.

    Having tried to catch the knife a few times and having bought and sold at as many good times as bad of late I am only just in the red including the divvy but not including imp credit. Best was at 2.02, 2.07 and 2.11 during Brexit but factor in carrying some losses from earlier buys on the way down and then clawing a fair bit back being smarter in some of the dips and recoveries I'm not sitting too bad at all. Also holding a third of my total at one stage which I'm comfortable with.

    We all take our chances on trading and no one can see the future. All of us are human (some more so than others) and no one is right all the time although my wife would strongly disagree 😜

    I'm keeping an eye on AIR, still have my own opinion of its ability to make good on divvys going forward barring an event some allure to which most stocks are not immune from think the FA is attractive compared to other similarly priced stocks.

  7. #9037
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Huxley posted this link on the kathmandu thread
    http://theregister.co.nz/features/ex...an-do-about-it

    He thought the trends be good for Kathmandu - but if 'experiences' like travel are where consumers are spending these days then all good for the likes of AIR

    Lions tour next year - what an experience that will be for thousands of Brits coming to NZ. Lions tour impact was one of the highlights of the AIR result in 2005
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #9038
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    Quote of the year: "no one is right all the time although my wife would strongly disagree"

  9. #9039
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    Sold my AIR back in March at $2.87 and entered an order to be notified when SP trades at or below $1.80. Received that email today, much earlier than expected back then. Back on the watchlist now but still in a serious downtrend with no end in sight
    Last edited by iceman; 26-09-2016 at 09:31 AM.

  10. #9040
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    pre-div low was @$2 so guess it will fall down to $1.65 as it's the support line. plz correct if wrong.

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