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Thread: AIR NZ

  1. #18141
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Skies View Post
    Sorry, you're quite right, had overlooked that option.
    Not sure i'ld want to take that long rough Southern Ocean crossing on myself now, would need to be pretty determined. From Ushuaia in S America its much closer & more accessible for us older types or of course the flights from Australia & S.America. There certainly is a significant market for it & I believe it is an extraordinary experience, incredibly beautiful, nothing like it anywhere else in the world.
    Obviously the reason I know about it is that I dream of doing it or something similar - as stated I think the subantarctic islands would be awesome even just to see , let alone land on. And for me personally the sea journey would be one of the best bits and I'd secretly hope for a bit of a rough patch lol

    BUT this is off topic (shock horror who cares)

    What I would be interested in comment on is how could possibly Shareclarity arrive at their DCF valuation of $1.95 because I dont really believe that Sharesies is the cause of this supposedly stratospheric share price.
    Last edited by peat; 17-09-2020 at 12:46 PM.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  2. #18142
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    https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/desti...qantas-history

    looks like the ozzies got in first!
    Last edited by Filthy; 18-09-2020 at 09:18 AM.

  3. #18143
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  4. #18144
    Guru Crypto Crude's Avatar
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    A $800 a seat Qantas flight to nowhere sold out in 10minutes today...
    Incredibly smart or incredibly stupid? Lol

  5. #18145
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crypto Crude View Post
    A $800 a seat Qantas flight to nowhere sold out in 10minutes today...
    Incredibly smart or incredibly stupid? Lol
    Some people just have to fly ...anywhere

    Cheaper than AKL to Hokitika return
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  6. #18146
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    Yes i wonder what MR B thinks about this ?

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opi...e-its-problems

  7. #18147
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waltzingironmansinlgescul View Post
    Yes i wonder what MR B thinks about this ?

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opi...e-its-problems
    I like MOD but its obvious he knows nothing about operating an airline. Normal whinging about prices and service you often read from wealthy, entitled people. Nor is his talk of the loan package accurate or responsible. There has been no official announcement from Air NZ or the government that they have started to draw down on it yet alone are sucking $70m for it.

    There is nothing wrong with Air NZ's capital or operating model, its flexible and been proven to work for all parties. Its efficiently run and the government can increase its stake in bad times and can sell down in good times. Shareholders earned very good dividends for close to two decades. The airline can survive as a mostly cargo and domestic operation until better times return so even the capital is worth a bit as evidenced by the current share price.

    Sheesh MOD didn't even get the CEO's name right.
    Last edited by Jaa; 19-09-2020 at 03:07 PM.

  8. #18148
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    Anyone got a detailed model of AIR as a going concern at the moment. I dont have one and therefore wont be even be thinking of trading a black hole.

    It wonderful to write a warm and fuzzy summary but based on what detailed data please.


    The current share price tells us nothing because i doubt any of the current investor buying and selling daily have a detailed model.

    I wont comment on the article because i do not have access to a detailed model.

    Black hole just got bigger ...

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12366432
    Last edited by Waltzingironmansinlgescul; Yesterday at 09:09 PM.

  9. #18149
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crypto Crude View Post
    A $800 a seat Qantas flight to nowhere sold out in 10minutes today...
    Incredibly smart or incredibly stupid? Lol
    7 hrs of fuel burn for no gain.
    Bring on more global warming.

  10. #18150
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waltzingironmansinlgescul View Post
    Anyone got a detailed model of AIR as a going concern at the moment. I dont have one and therefore wont be even be thinking of trading a black hole.

    It wonderful to write a warm and fuzzy summary but based on what detailed data please.


    The current share price tells us nothing because i doubt any of the current investor buying and selling daily have a detailed model.

    I wont comment on the article because i do not have access to a detailed model.

    Black hole just got bigger ...

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12366432
    AIR will always be a going concern because pretty much the GOVT will give it enough of our money to survive ad infinitum. So no need for auditors to even go there.

  11. #18151
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    Quote Originally Posted by dobby41 View Post
    7 hrs of fuel burn for no gain.
    Bring on more global warming.
    The aircraft need to either be flown or stored somewhere bone dry otherwise they become expensive jungle gyms quite quickly.

  12. #18152
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waltzingironmansinlgescul View Post
    Anyone got a detailed model of AIR as a going concern at the moment. I dont have one and therefore wont be even be thinking of trading a black hole.

    It wonderful to write a warm and fuzzy summary but based on what detailed data please.


    The current share price tells us nothing because i doubt any of the current investor buying and selling daily have a detailed model.

    I wont comment on the article because i do not have access to a detailed model.

    Black hole just got bigger ...

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12366432
    New world these days ...financial models mean squat all ...it’s the power of the story that drives value these days
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  13. #18153
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    AIR will always be a going concern because pretty much the GOVT will give it enough of our money to survive ad infinitum. So no need for auditors to even go there.
    I took the time to read the auditors report on the weekend. They did go into considerable commentary about the issue of going concern and appear to have spent considerable time going over AIR's forecast under a number of different forecasting scenario's.

    Obviously they had to make a judgement on the matter without considering the Govt's need to maintain critical transport infrastructure.
    Interestingly there's a new standard around the whole going concern matter https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12364940

    What I find interesting is the market obviously thinks you're bang on the money because AIR have a small bond issue and they're currently bid on the secondary market at 3.5% with no sellers and yet AIR are paying the Govt 7-9% on the new Govt loan facility.
    Last edited by Beagle; Today at 10:02 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  14. #18154
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    I’d rather do this than a flight to nowhere

    More of a thrill

    https://www.pacifictrailways.co.nz/s...sku/01436.html
    Last edited by winner69; Today at 09:49 AM.
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  15. #18155
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    I’d rather do this than a flight to nowhere

    More of a thrill

    https://www.pacifictrailways.co.nz/s...sku/01436.html
    Looks awesome
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  16. #18156
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaa View Post
    Sheesh MOD didn't even get the CEO's name right.
    Fortran hahah, wasnt that some sort of computer programme in the 60's or even earlier !! Haha shows where MOD's head at.

    He's just self promoting with this article. I dont think AIR havent thought of upselling possibilities ....
    And he is worried for the Mums and Dad out of pocket with the shares.... lol
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  17. #18157
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    New world these days ...financial models mean squat all ...it’s the power of the story that drives value these days
    As we all know: share price = value + hype.

    Not quite sure whether any story can drive the value, however - it clearly will impact on the hype.

    Probably more correct to say that the story can drive the share price (by determining the hype).
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  18. #18158
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaa View Post
    I like MOD but its obvious he knows nothing about operating an airline. Normal whinging about prices and service you often read from wealthy, entitled people. Nor is his talk of the loan package accurate or responsible. There has been no official announcement from Air NZ or the government that they have started to draw down on it yet alone are sucking $70m for it.

    There is nothing wrong with Air NZ's capital or operating model, its flexible and been proven to work for all parties. Its efficiently run and the government can increase its stake in bad times and can sell down in good times. Shareholders earned very good dividends for close to two decades. The airline can survive as a mostly cargo and domestic operation until better times return so even the capital is worth a bit as evidenced by the current share price.

    Sheesh MOD didn't even get the CEO's name right.
    Air have started to draw down on the loan. They don’t have to officially announce when. It is reasonably common knowledge.

  19. #18159
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    Coronavirus latest: Long-haul flights riskier than thought, says CDC paper

    https://www.ft.com/content/b159b59a-...f-cf35980cc55d
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  20. #18160
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    As we all know: share price = value + hype.

    Not quite sure whether any story can drive the value, however - it clearly will impact on the hype.

    Probably more correct to say that the story can drive the share price (by determining the hype).
    Surely you need to know the story to drive/evaluate value ....and then you add hype.

    Oceania is a great point in case eh ...pity story not understood
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

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