AIR - Air NZ.

[skid]

Based on the story so far my analysis comes up with a pretax profit for AIR for the 2017 financial year of:

$540,843,082.52

But in my heart of hearts I expect things to get a little tougher and the pretax result will actually be

$488,527,851.52

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: not totally convinced about the 52c

and once that .52 goes --there goes another 100mil

[skid]

That near monopoly on local air travel is very lucrative

Could see improved profits locally - all those tourists flying around the country and significant operational efficiencies still flowing through to the bottom line, like those little 19 seater jobs they have just taken out of service were apparently losing them a couple million a month - things like this all add up

Whatever i reckon F17 in excess of $500m (2nd highest profit ever) - on reflection not much point in them fine tuning the guidance this early into the year

They sitting on 10 grand of my cash for travel next year - jeez I forgot that the first $50m/$60m or so of each years profit is the return on prepaid airfares

man ,you must be rich if your flying AIR W69--( The wife has ditched AIR to Vancouver-Montreal this year in favor of the cheaper option ,going through San Fran--even if it does entail putting up with USA transit)--you can now buy a transit pass--believe that? First they force you to go through customs (security?)and then later turn around and charge you for the privilege of transiting-(thus bypassing immigration)......-(anything to make a buck)

[Mush]

Oil trades within a very tight band ($40-$60 Brent) until the end of 2017, shale producers in the states effectively form a cap or price ceiling as when it becomes economical to turn the taps on again, they have the ability to do so in a matter of weeks. The OPEC agreement (which hasn't been agreed until November), was more an effort to jawbone it off the $45 handle, which was being tested. A move through there would have seen a look at $40.

A large portion of last years profit/dividend was attributed to low fuel, so careful what you wish for. Higher fuel, better utilization of the more efficient fleet does not equal higher profit (may reduce competition however).

[JeremyALD]

Where does everyone see the Share Price in a year from now? I'm already 15% down and although I'm happy hold for a year or two I don't really want to lose much more! Shame on me for buying in the day after the dividend payment thinking things would return to $2.20 levels

[ohpark0119]

Where does everyone see the Share Price in a year from now? I'm already 15% down and although I'm happy hold for a year or two I don't really want to lose much more! Shame on me for buying in the day after the dividend payment thinking things would return to $2.20 levels

bought before div @ $2.12 and still holding. have no clue where this flight is going. To everyone here, what's your valuation of AIR? Is $1.8 a fair value?

[Jantar]

bought before div @ $2.12 and still holding. have no clue where this flight is going. To everyone here, what's your valuation of AIR? Is $1.8 a fair value?

Way undervalued at current price. Even if AIR only maintains their base divi that is a 10% return on investment after tax.

[skid]

Where does everyone see the Share Price in a year from now? I'm already 15% down and although I'm happy hold for a year or two I don't really want to lose much more! Shame on me for buying in the day after the dividend payment thinking things would return to $2.20 levels

No one can really tell you that (SP)Jeremy,just general stuff about what sort of strategy one uses for investing. TA is one way to get some guidance but if your not experienced you may need to do some learning (TA thread)--One way or the other,most would agree that some sort of a plan is prudent. Perhaps set a price that is the most loss you can tolerate and stick to it-- Some do buy and hold although by your question that may not be your cup of tea.That involves a certain amount of faith that things will bounce eventually because the market has come to its senses or the company performance inproves (and outside markets behave themselves)
Perhaps one rough guide is where we are right now--This 180 SP has been a hard fought resistance level that has not been broken yet.That might be a good thing to keep an eye on. If it breaks below that (aside from just a few buys and sells) then perhaps give your ''just in case''plan some thought. Many investors have one right from the start which is not a bad idea. That was my main point when posting around dividend time. not to buy or dont buy ..but just think it through before you decide how much to throw at it,and have a plan just in case things dont come up roses.......but then ..Im just a loser..(took my loss some months ago)

[skid]

Way undervalued at current price. Even if AIR only maintains their base divi that is a 10% return on investment after tax.

what % of return did you get this time around?

[JeremyALD]

Thanks I'm pretty new to share trading but overall have picked good stocks based on business rationale. AIR has certainly been a lesson for me to not try and catch a falling knife. It's funny looking early this year when the share market was falling and AIR just kept going higher. Who would of thought we'd be in this position 6 months down the track!

[Jantar]

what % of return did you get this time around?

After tax: 22.5%