AIR - Air NZ.

[Snow Leopard]

Does not look promising does it?

So there is a little tolerance in the figures due to rounding but here is what we have.

Short Haul Year To Date Revenue Year on Year:
Jul: 99.36%
Aug: 99.26%

Long Haul Year To Date Revenue Year on Year:
Jul: 99.99%
Aug 98.62% << worrying - if you were not expecting it.

Still 10 months to go and anything can happen - we just hope it doesn't.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Financial Year to Date (3 months) Year on Year Revenue Comparisons:

Short Haul:
Aug: 99.26%
Sep: 99.18%

Long Haul:
Aug: 98.62%
Sep: 98.07%

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/245822.pdf

For those that prefer the relative safety of bonds this might be something that interests you.

Just out of interest I note the projected dividend yield at $1.78 based on 20 cps fully imputed (20 / 0.72) / 178 = 15.6% gross. I think we've debated whether this projected dividend yield is sustainable enough already for people to make their own mind up.

[see weed]

Stat's look reasonable to me but the headline should have read as above.

Note 3 to the Fy16 accounts shows AIR's remaining stake of just under 103m shares was revalued down to A20.5 cps as at balance date. They subsequently subscribed for their entitlement to the cash issue for another ~ $103m shares at $A21 cps so their stake would have cost / been valued at just on $A42.7m. Sold as noted in the monthly operating stat's for $A65.7m a profit of ~ $A23m by my calculations.
Quick back of the envelope check to see if this looks reasonable. Profit was ~ 54% above cost / book value of $A20.75 cps so that makes the sale price A31.95 cps which is close to what they sold the main tranche earlier for @ $33 cps so the profit on sale looks like a very good outcome to me considering the revised shareholding was diluted by the cash issue at 21 cps. Very nice sale at a very nice profit !

They will take this profit "above the line" as per associate company movement / realisation of movement in valuation so that's some $24.5m Kiwi of profit to help towards my revised target of $475m before tax for FY16 but perhaps more importantly this represents the final cleansing of this Ansett Mk2 initiated by former management from AIR's books and draws this unhappy matter to a conclusion.

I applaud AIR's current directors and senior management for having the courage to cleanse AIR of this "investment" which I remain of the view is systemically flawed because of its business model of paying substantial royalties to Sir Richard Branson and substantial bonus's and grossly excessive monetary compensation to senior pilots and management in a company that has shown an absolutely appalling history of lack of profitability.

The only people who have done well out of Virgin, in order are Sir Richard Branson, Senior management, senior flight crew, suppliers and various other parties including airline code share partners. For minority shareholders VAH has been a truly shocking investment and if they can't make money last year when operating conditions for airlines were the most favourable in half a century, when will they...

Reasonable stat's and reasonable yield considering the low fuel price. On track to meet profit guidance within the companies indicated range I'd say.

Profit on sale of VAH adds 2.2 cps to NTA of AIR by my calculations and about $70m Kiwi to the bank account and they still have code share flight arrangements with VAH so a win all round !
Dividend looking safer now

What was that div yld again? was it 12% or 15% all the way to the bank.

[couta1]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/245822.pdf

For those that prefer the relative safety of bonds this might be something that interests you.

Far too boring mate, I prefer to ride the Aircoaster. PS-Held some of the current bonds a few years ago.

[Beagle]

What was that div yld again? was it 12% or 15% all the way to the bank.

See above, 15.6% gross.

Far too boring mate, I prefer to ride the Aircoaster. PS-Held some of the current bonds a few years ago.

Even though this is a very strong company that will undoubtedly be around in another 76 years time long after we're pushing up daises I can't see the logic in investing in 6 year bonds at 4.1% when we are so close to the bottom of the interest rate cycle. On the other hand, like you mate, I'd like to think we're somewhere near the bottom of the rollercoaster that is AIR's SP.

[skid]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/245822.pdf

For those that prefer the relative safety of bonds this might be something that interests you.

Just out of interest I note the projected dividend yield at $1.78 based on 20 cps fully imputed (20 / 0.72) / 178 = 15.6% gross. I think we've debated whether this projected dividend yield is sustainable enough already for people to make their own mind up.

Smoke and Mirrors?? Your the accountant--Hows the last dividend looking in terms of AIR portfolio value? Because it looks to me like the market has devalued the share accordingly.That debate seems to have been discarded.
If AIR perform then that is fair enough -but buying for dividend?(that only works if the SP makes up the difference)---The share price should ''earn'' the dividend--not the other way around. IMO

[Beagle]

Post dividend SP has disappointed thus far, no question about that but I think you're drawing a very long bow somewhat implying all future dividends will be met with permanent SP decreases.

I think we've gone around this mulberry bush enough and thrashed the "can they continue to pay 20 cps per annum in dividends" to death but if others want to debate it further that's their prerogative.

[bung5]

They should of gone down the same path as Chorus and issue euro bonds at 1.1% interest

[couta1]

Post dividend SP has disappointed thus far, no question about that but I think you're drawing a very long bow somewhat implying all future dividends will be met with permanent SP decreases.

I think we've gone around this mulberry bush enough and thrashed the "can they continue to pay 20 cps per annum in dividends" to death but if others want to debate it further that's their prerogative.

Yep and those others can also have a debate with the 6 analysts who have a consensus average divvy of 19.66c over the next 3 years, after that with lower Capex there's no reason why that level of divvy can't continue. I still can't find a better value share on the NZX currently, look forward to the others showing me better alternatives.

[skid]

Post dividend SP has disappointed thus far, no question about that but I think you're drawing a very long bow somewhat implying all future dividends will be met with permanent SP decreases.

I think we've gone around this mulberry bush enough and thrashed the "can they continue to pay 20 cps per annum in dividends" to death but if others want to debate it further that's their prerogative.

No ,Im not trying to draw that bow at all--I have no idea if it will happen again---what Im saying is that you cant imply that the dividend will be free and clear as in free money-(it didnt happen this time,so by definition its not a given next time- thats all. I dont think it can be used as ''bait'' for buying shares.---Thats not to say that some of it ,or even all of it wont be free and clear next time...maybe,maybe not........It sure is a baffling share though aint it?
I thinkm its all about performance and market sentiment now...the rest will follow.

There are so many surprises I think you have to look at TA--Its just not behaving in terms of fundamentals.