AIR - Air NZ.

[winner69]

Key principle of trend theory is that trends don't change direction unless there is a 'shock' to cause a reversal

So AIR have to come up with something exciting to break this current downtrend. Until this (good news) happens expect the current trend to continue.

The long up trend was going fine until that infamous Investor Day Briefing last May - that was the 'shock' that caused that uptrend to reverse and started this current downtrend.

[Hoop]

...

(Note for geeks- I'm talking general trend theory here - nothing to do with TA, Dow Theory etc and all that sort of stuff.)

trend
trɛnd/
noun
noun: trend; plural noun: trends

• 1.
  a general direction in which something is developing or changing.
  "an upward trend in sales and profit margins"
  

  synonyms:

  tendency, movement, drift, swing, shift, course, current, run, direction, inclination, leaning; Morebias, bent "an upward trend in unemployment" That's TA and DOW stuff

  
  
  
  
  
  
• 2.
  a fashion.
  "the latest trends in modern dance"
  

  synonyms:

  fashion, vogue, style, mode, craze, mania, rage; Moreinformalfad, thing "the latest trend in dance music" Thats not TA or DOW stuff

  
  
  
  
  
  
• 3.
  a topic that is the subject of many posts on a social media website within a short period of time.
  "for more than 20 days in a row, most of the top Twitter trends were Olympics-related"
  That's not TA or DOW stuff
  
  
  
  
  

verb

• 1.
  change or develop in a general direction.
  "unemployment has been trending upwards"
  
  

  synonyms:

  move, go, tend, head, drift, gravitate, swing, shift, turn, incline, lean, veer "interest rates are trending up in Japan" Thats TA or DOW stuff

  
  
  
  
  • (especially of a geographical feature) bend or turn away in a specified direction.
    verb: trend; 3rd person present: trends; past tense: trended; past participle: trended; gerund or present participle: trending
    "the Richelieu River trending southward to Lake Champlain"
    That's not TA or DOW stuff
    
    
    
  
  
  
  
  
  
• 2.
  (of a topic) be the subject of many posts on a social media website within a short period of time.
  "I've just taken a quick look at what's trending on Twitter right now"
  Thats not TA or DOW stuff
  
  
  
  
  

Origin

Old English trendan ‘revolve, rotate’, of Germanic origin; compare with trundle. The verb sense ‘turn in a specified direction’ dates from the late 16th cent, and gave rise to the figurative use ‘develop in a general direction’ in the mid 19th century, a development paralleled in the noun.


Translate trend to



Use over time for: trend








Conclusion ... Winners definition of trend is either fashion, Twitter, a bend in the river or a subject with the most posts in a forum..Hmmmm..AIR thread is second to NZO

[winner69]

OK - all semantics and intepretation I think Hoop

I was wrong - according to your notes I was meaning TA, Dow stuff. Purpose of note was to avoid being told by TA guru's 'that's not TA' and thats 'a load of rubbish'

Whatever since the Investor Day Briefing that 'shocked' the market and started a downtrend that was further reinforced by the $400m-$600m guidance its been all downhill. So what 'shock' / good news is going to reverse that trend?

Until that happens trend likely to stay in place - downwards

[axe]

OK - all semantics and intepretation I think Hoop

I was wrong - according to your notes I was meaning TA, Dow stuff. Purpose of note was to avoid being told by TA guru's 'that's not TA' and thats 'a load of rubbish'

Whatever since the Investor Day Briefing that 'shocked' the market and started a downtrend that was further reinforced by the $400m-$600m guidance its been all downhill. So what 'shock' / good news is going to reverse that trend?

Until that happens trend likely to stay in place - downwards

Shock at half year could be Chris saying new guidance full year now expected to exceed 600m and be in the 600m-800m range. Might be enough to snap the down trend?
Could shock it the other way and he might say things heading toward the lower end or below current guidance.

It's interesting looking at the returns for AIR over the last 10 years. Not huge capital gain but per if you invested $10k on 15/10/2006 you would have received about $13k in divvys during the decade.

[Jantar]

...... Not huge capital gain but per if you invested $10k on 15/10/2006 you would have received about $13k in divvys during the decade.

And that is the reason why I am not too worried by the current low SP. On the estimated divies going forward, owning shares in this company will give an after tax return of greater than 10%.

[Baa_Baa]

Assuming you could buy your shares on a Sunday, or rather buy the close Fri 13th Oct 2006, you would also have a 10-year elapsed capital gain of 20.3% or $2,034 plus your original investment $10,000 plus $13,000 (using Axe's number) = $25,034 total or 150% ROI. Seems pretty good.

This suggests that the secret (for AIR?) is buy low(ish) and NEVER sell, EVER. Or buy something else that pays a dividend AND grows share value.

Interesting perspective, but not really all that convincing. The dubious element of the example given is the precise day/time at which the shares were bought.

[forest]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/290531

[King1212]

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU160...gs-targets.htm

buy now before too late

[Stranger_Danger]

This suggests that the secret (for AIR?) is buy low(ish) and NEVER sell, EVER. .

Gee, the secret with airline stocks is to never sell? That is the exact opposite advice to what Warren Buffett gives when it comes to an industry that, collectively, has not made a single dollar of profit since the Wright brothers!

You *might* get lucky/smart with your timing, but the industry economics are not a surprise and airlines are a classic value investors trap. See below disclosure for proof!

P.S I'm not on my pedestal being oh so clever. I've invested in Air NZ twice for returns of -60%, and +20%, both inadequate. Not counting dividends, but they are to an airline investor what crack is to a crack addict - the thing that keeps them addicted, while missing the bigger picture of the company they're keeping. Personally, I'd take the crack house over the airline industry economics.

[Raz]

Gee, the secret with airline stocks is to never sell? That is the exact opposite advice to what Warren Buffett gives when it comes to an industry that, collectively, has not made a single dollar of profit since the Wright brothers!

You *might* get lucky/smart with your timing, but the industry economics are not a surprise and airlines are a classic value investors trap. See below disclosure for proof!

P.S I'm not on my pedestal being oh so clever. I've invested in Air NZ twice for returns of -60%, and +20%, both inadequate. Not counting dividends, but they are to an airline investor what crack is to a crack addict - the thing that keeps them addicted, while missing the bigger picture of the company they're keeping. Personally, I'd take the crack house over the airline industry economics.

I have not lost a cent on Air, actually made good coin, the one real advantage of being out of AIR is that you get your life back..not constantly watching for the latest development:-) Been a rewarding however high maintenance 12 months trading AIR. Enjoying the break:-)