AIR - Air NZ.

[axe]

Interesting perspective, but not really all that convincing. The dubious element of the example given is the precise day/time at which the shares were bought.

Dubious element? I just picked the same date 10 years ago lol...... sorry for not checkin' that it was a sunday. .

[Baa_Baa]

I think the real secret of investing in AIR, is having some long-term method of when to buy and when to sell. Without that, the secret is avoid it. JMHO.

[Baa_Baa]

I have not lost a cent on Air, actually made good coin, the one real advantage of being out of AIR is that you get your life back..not constantly watching for the latest development:-) Been a rewarding however high maintenance 12 months trading AIR. Enjoying the break:-)

Ditto, though without the high maintenance. A long term perspective makes money in AIR as well as nimble trading, that could be a few years of being in and a few more of being out. Now is the out time.

[skid]

Ditto, though without the high maintenance. A long term perspective makes money in AIR as well as nimble trading, that could be a few years of being in and a few more of being out. Now is the out time.

Its ironic how much money one would have made (saved)by just watching from the outside--Buy and hold...hmmm...lets see SP now is roughly the same as march 2014--high was Jan this year..im sure there are all sorts of conclusions we could draw--(lets just hope its not starting from around the high)

it would be interesting to compare AIR investment to buying a house and collecting rent(div)

[Raz]

Ditto, though without the high maintenance. A long term perspective makes money in AIR as well as nimble trading, that could be a few years of being in and a few more of being out. Now is the out time.

Nimble trading is reading sentiment correctly..that is constantly watching, FA and TA with this stock has not provided an effective tool in itself.

[iceman]

Pretty serious stuff taking Samsung phones to another level http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11729805

[BlackPeter]

Pretty serious stuff taking Samsung phones to another level http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11729805

Shame .... sounds like a really nice phone:

http://www.samsung.com/nz/galaxys7

for some reason they don't advertise that it might go up in flames and can't be taken on planes (*) - but this is probably for another thread.

(*) - actually - they just changed their webpage ... now they do.

[Beagle]

Its ironic how much money one would have made (saved)by just watching from the outside--Buy and hold...hmmm...lets see SP now is roughly the same as march 2014--high was Jan this year..im sure there are all sorts of conclusions we could draw--(lets just hope its not starting from around the high)

it would be interesting to compare AIR investment to buying a house and collecting rent(div)

If you bought an average house in Auckland now you'd pay $900K and get $500 a week for rent. Assuming 48 weeks per year was paid, they didn't do any major damage, didn't start a meth lab in your house and actually paid the rent your looking at gross rent $24,000, less estimated expenses, rates, $3,000, Insurance $1,000, Repairs and Maintenance $2,000 and provision for deep cycle repairs and maintenance (repaint inside and out and new carpets, lino e.t.c. every 10 years, ($20,000 = $2,000 per annum = Net return before tax of $16,000, (say $10,720 after tax at 33%) or about 1.78% gross assuming you managed the property yourself, collected the rent e.t.c.e.t.c. You'd probably be buying very close to the top of the cycle.

On the other hand $900,000 invested in AIR would likely buy you 513,257 shares at $1.75 plus brokerage which would return you $102,651 in fully imputed dividends. You may be buying close to the bottom of the cycle.

Pop Quiz - Which sum would be easier for a retired person to live on ? Which alternative involves an awful lot of hard work and drama dealing with tenants and which one involves just doing nothing ?

Disc; I would never advise investing all ones retirement funds in one stock, just posting for the sake of pointing out what an interestingly stark comparison these two alternatives represent...and people say owning AIR is crazy !...I know which investment I think is crazy. That said we have done very well indeed out of Auckland property in terms of capital gain but that matters little to us now in our mid 50's going forward from here and you'd be a brave person to say Auckland property will keep going up ad infinitum.
I just want life to be easy now so yield is where its at for me so 20 cps annual dividends is highly attractive. Putting more "retired" into the phrase semi-retired is where it's at for me.

[Hoop]

....You may be buying close to the bottom of the cycle....

Or the way down from the top..

Cyclical industry bottoms look like this:
1..Industry making large losses
2..Competitors shrink leaving the unprofitable areas of the industry
3..The Country (or Global) where the Industry operates is in a recession
4..Consumers curtailing their spending due to tough times
5..The industry shrinks to prevent oversupply/low or negative margins.
6..Some competitors go bankrupt
7..Many industries are vital to a Country's health...so government bail outs become common
8..probably more but that's all I can think of off the top of my head...you get my drift that the cycle is probably still closer to the top than the bottom

[Raz]

Or the way down from the top..

Cyclical industry bottoms look like this:
1..Industry making large losses
2..Competitors shrink leaving the unprofitable areas of the industry
3..The Country (or Global) where the Industry operates is in a recession
4..Consumers curtailing their spending due to tough times
5..The industry shrinks to prevent oversupply/low or negative margins.
6..Some competitors go bankrupt
7..Many industries are vital to a Country's health...so government bail outs become common
8..probably more but that's all I can think of off the top of my head...you get my drift that the cycle is probably still closer to the top than the bottom

I hate to agree however there is no clear sign we are near the bottom of the cycle...