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Thread: AIR - Air NZ.

  1. #9501
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Default Some Real Excitement

    Quote Originally Posted by Paper Tiger View Post

    One revised valuation for AIR is lower than previous. More will probably follow.


    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger
    Go on Tiger...you know you want to put all four paws and legs to good use and get some serious AIR in that coat of yours, if you shampoo your fur and then rinse it off you sure won't need to blow dry it
    https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...9A&FORM=VRDGAR....OR a fine example of forward thinking I'm getting in now and wishing everyone goodwill for the forthcoming Christmas season
    https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...8B&FORM=VRDGAR

    I think AIR will make steady progress from here. Analysts have been following AIR's SP around up and down like a puppy dog for quite some time now so I have little faith in their predictive power and besides all that all a reputable Beagle is really interested in is the size of his feed and I reckon we're good for years of 2 x 10 cps full imputed so this hound will stay extremely well fed and may need to consider a serious exercise regime...like chasing large cats.
    Last edited by Beagle; 24-10-2016 at 11:31 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #9502
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    Default When the Gorilla enters the room (forget the Tigers and Beagles)

    Quote Originally Posted by see weed View Post
    Can any of the TA people out there tell me at what price AIR must reach for it to trigger a buy now?, If we say the low has been established now at $1.715c. Have noticed sp has gained 12c in the last 6 trading days. I am happy with 1c average gain every day, but if it wants to gain 2c every day, that's ok to. So to be on the safe side, If the TA buy kicks in at say $2.10c? and all the TA buyers start buying, then I am expecting to make a 30c to 40c gain including a 10c div by early next year? Correct me if I'm wrong.
    From a TA perspective..AIR reversed into a Bear cycle at the beginning of May 2016 and since then there's been no signs of it ending..The great giveaway to shareholders (8th September) created a negative capital asset hit on the Company which has accentuated the current bear cycle..

    Best Investment Strategy for Long Term Investors
    When ones portfolio stock (such as AIR) doesn't meet the criteria of steady upward trend of earnings with constant good margins during all economic periods including boom and bust (Buffett criteria)...the following options should be used.
    When a non-criteria stock enters into a bear cycle investors should:...
    either
    swap strategies, going from Sailing (passive..buy & hold.. Bull Market Strategies).. to.. Rowing (active...using Bear Market investing strategies)
    or
    cash up and wait until the stock reverses back into a bull cycle..

    Rowing means being active therefore watching for entries at the beginning of each sucker rally and prepare to exit near a major resistance when those rallies fail to break through...Resistances can be a wide range of things from TA indicators to trading behaviours..so some rowing traders may not be using TA but other methods to determine their entries and exits...some successful rowers have great "gut feel" abilities.

    In some ways AIR is a victim to the above strategies..the share price falls as there is less "available" money thereby making the stock weak and so rallies peter out due to lack of buying demand..and the major group investor bear mindset (the Gorilla) takes over and governs the trading behaviour of the stock irrespective of the current FA conditions..

    Bear Market conditions frustrate the minority, the "believers" (who may be right), but their efforts to portray their message fails to persuade the majority group (who maybe wrong).. This is equivalent to "farting against thunder" therefore to be successful one recognises who's the boss is when there is a Gorilla in the room and devise a survival strategy..In the case of Share Investing if you opt not to leave the room the best survival (Capital) strategy against the Gorilla is the "rowing" strategy, irrespective of what beliefs you may hold.

    Where is AIR share price at?..
    The Bollinger bands are tightening suggesting a change of trend or change in tempo...As the share price hasn't got much of a trend it's any ones guess which way the share price is going to go...If it goes up there's resistances at $2 and a $2.20 - $2.35 zone .....Be mindful that any rally is most likely be a sucker rally searching a top around those prices.. If it goes down there's minor support at $1.65....
    AIR is a very risky stock when playing with the bear...Due to it's higher Beta I would expect the experienced player (too large an ego to stay away) to suffer a few claw marks..


    Any one who disputes AIR being a Bear hasn't been reading the posts (frustration) on this thread
    Last edited by Hoop; 24-10-2016 at 12:36 PM.

  3. #9503
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Thumbs up Give me an H, Give me a couple of O's, Give me a P...

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    From a TA perspective..AIR reversed into a Bear cycle at the beginning of May 2016 and since then there's been no signs of it ending..The great giveaway to shareholders (8th September) created a negative capital asset hit on the Company which has accentuated the current bear cycle...
    ...Any one who disputes AIR being a Bear hasn't been reading the posts (frustration) on this thread
    As I apparently need to spread some reputation around before I am allowed to quietly praise you I am going to do so very publicly and encourage everyone who can to hit the reputation icon.

    Great post Hoop!

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger
    om mani peme hum

  4. #9504
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    Default

    Nice post..I agree it is even my ego that gets me trading on this share:-)

  5. #9505
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    AIZ up on ASX today

    That's a good sign for tomorrow
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #9506
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    Saw four friends off from AKL on AirNZ yesterday. What a hassle on those damn self checking machines - and the three members of AirNZ there to help did not seem interested. Two years ago, just after the machines were installed, I had a similar problem and the rather elderly member of staff who who supposedly helped booked me to Europe and my bags to Sydney. Anyway, that's another four people who, like me, will stick to Emirates in future. Better service, prettier staff and so much better choice of entertainment on board.

  7. #9507
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackCross View Post
    Saw four friends off from AKL on AirNZ yesterday. What a hassle on those damn self checking machines - and the three members of AirNZ there to help did not seem interested. Two years ago, just after the machines were installed, I had a similar problem and the rather elderly member of staff who who supposedly helped booked me to Europe and my bags to Sydney. Anyway, that's another four people who, like me, will stick to Emirates in future. Better service, prettier staff and so much better choice of entertainment on board.
    Not quite PC, but I see (and noticed myself) what you mean ; One other thing - don't forget that Emirates has a higher luggage allowance (30 kg for economy, 40 kg for business) ... comes handy for long distance travel.

    ... and I don't say that to beat AIR up ... but hope that they learn from the competition.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  8. #9508
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    Ironically my largest holding at the moment is AIRNZ and I do fly domestically with them but, although many of the staff are great, I do sometimes find some of the staff, as happened yesterday, seem to have a 'job for life' mentality.

    I hope the management are taking note of the SkyTrax awards this year...AirNZ 17th again and way behind at least 5 other airlines that fly out of AKL regularly.
    http://www.worldairlineawards.com/Aw...ne_rating.html

  9. #9509
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackCross View Post
    Ironically my largest holding at the moment is AIRNZ and I do fly domestically with them but, although many of the staff are great, I do sometimes find some of the staff, as happened yesterday, seem to have a 'job for life' mentality.

    I hope the management are taking note of the SkyTrax awards this year...AirNZ 17th again and way behind at least 5 other airlines that fly out of AKL regularly.
    http://www.worldairlineawards.com/Aw...ne_rating.html
    Must be something wrong with the way it's done

    AIR isn't even #1 for Australasia/Pacific -- Qantas is
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #9510
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    Fortunately for this Beagle he's been training to row using two sets of oars, one for each pair of paws and he's been known to occasionally use his tail for propulsion too
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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