-
03-11-2016, 01:44 PM
#9581
Originally Posted by Jantar
In modern times even freight is being handled more and more by air rather than sea. So I do not dispair of air travel suddenly ceasing.
I wouldn't expect it to cease and never suggested that.
When I have heard people talk about essential services air travel has never been in the conversation.
I'm not sure what you are trying to suggest? That, in a downturn air travel will continue unabated then I think you are wrong. In a down turn air travel will be more affected than food or power - true essential services
-
03-11-2016, 02:21 PM
#9582
A modern thriving economy requires a decent amount of transport infrastructure which is why many Government's around the world hold a stake in their national airline as they deem that to be in their national interest.
Seatbelt's fastened we could be in for some "trumped up" turbulence.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
-
03-11-2016, 02:23 PM
#9583
Member
The economic downturn in Australia has mildly affected passenger numbers for Qantas and Virgin. Airline margins are small so even a slight drop in passenger numbers, reduced airfares and slightly reduced use of aircraft will have a disproportionate effect on profit margin.
-
03-11-2016, 04:19 PM
#9584
Member
Originally Posted by Jantar
Why limit travel to holidays?
In modern times even freight is being handled more and more by air rather than sea. So I do not dispair of air travel suddenly ceasing.
In my previous life working in a big airline, we found that when the world economy went down, airfreight volume actually goes up. A few reasons. One is that to be competitive, you have to get your goods to market faster. Another is that in lean times, your inventory levels goes down and so you have to move goods faster.
-
03-11-2016, 05:02 PM
#9585
Just to add to the debate , interesting article here .
Personally could see less of the budget family holiday to say Brisbane in any economic downturn , and a lot more competitive pricing .
http://www.wsj.com/articles/global-a...row-1474250520
-
03-11-2016, 05:34 PM
#9586
Good on Mr Carter in rolling over his $30,000 worth of bonds
When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself
-
04-11-2016, 10:42 AM
#9587
Don't worry about USA election, it will be just like brexit, maybe last a day or two. Just look forward to 10c div and maybe 10c or 20c sp gain before then. 16 weeks approx. to ex div, and maybe 10c to 30c sp gain sounds good to me.
-
04-11-2016, 11:46 AM
#9588
Originally Posted by see weed
Don't worry about USA election, it will be just like brexit, maybe last a day or two. Just look forward to 10c div and maybe 10c or 20c sp gain before then. 16 weeks approx. to ex div, and maybe 10c to 30c sp gain sounds good to me.
It depends ... if Hillary comes in, you are right - it will be business as usual and the markets will start worrying about something else (like e.g. the next Fed interest hike ...).
However - if Trump comes in (and yes, BREXIT might be a good example) - how do you think the markets are going to react when the leading world currency suddenly drops by 10 to 20 percent?
Sure - the world economy can probably deal with a Brexiting UK (representing prior to BREXIT 3.5% of world's GDP, now more like 3%), but a USA-EXIT (representing 25% of world GDP) from the world economy? Different order of magnitudes.
If Trump wins we can expect a long and deep world economical crisis ... no point in worrying about days or months - this will be more like a decade or so (and a replacement for the thin skinned bully) until the world might start to recover from that.
And looking at AIR - how many Chinese tourists do you think will still come to New Zealand when a trade war between China and Russia (on one side) and the US (and probably some of its Western allies) is waging? How many less business trips will we need into a country which puts lots of duties on our products?
Make no mistake - if this election goes the wrong way, we all will feel it - for a long time to come.
Last edited by BlackPeter; 04-11-2016 at 12:03 PM.
Reason: clarified UK's GDP share
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
-
04-11-2016, 12:09 PM
#9589
Hilliary Clinton at $1.36 on Centrebet in Australia so she's NO certainty to win, that's for sure. I remember when Team N.Z. had won 8 races in the America's cup and looked like a certainty to win it. The N.Z. TAB had them at $1.01 and we all thought it was a certainty they would win the ninth race and take the America's cup didn't we !...so stranger things have happened in terms of the outside horse winning a two horse race.
If Trump gets in we are basically in unchartered waters and at the least we will have a new era of uncertainty.
That said AIR are a very well managed company with moderate debt so are well positioned to meet any challenges going forward.
Last edited by Beagle; 04-11-2016 at 12:56 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
-
04-11-2016, 12:11 PM
#9590
Originally Posted by see weed
Don't worry about USA election, it will be just like brexit, maybe last a day or two. Just look forward to 10c div and maybe 10c or 20c sp gain before then. 16 weeks approx. to ex div, and maybe 10c to 30c sp gain sounds good to me.
In the USA corporations do not control the Government, in the USA corporations are the Government. With that thought in mind I agree with your sentiment see weed, whoever wins(Please not that Trump clown) it won't have a long lasting effect on the share market once the real Government(Banking Cartel) stamps their feet.
Tags for this Thread
Posting Permissions
- You may not post new threads
- You may not post replies
- You may not post attachments
- You may not edit your posts
-
Forum Rules
|
|
Bookmarks