AIR - Air NZ.

[Beagle]

Thanks Robomo, appreciate your detailed reply. Remember the old Spot the Telecom dog campaign ? That campaign was extremely successful for them. It seems customers react very well to animals they can identify with so perhaps AIR's marketing campaign with Dave the Goose might be more value accretive to AIR than expected

In terms of the oil price jump today, I recall AIR's FY17 profit estimate range of $400m - $600m was predicated upon $55 Oil so we've been well below that all year and remain so.

[winner69]

In terms of the oil price jump today, I recall AIR's FY17 profit estimate range of $400m - $600m was predicated upon $55 Oil so we've been well below that all year and remain so.

That along with how reenues are tracking as per monthly stats all points to FY17 profit being greater than $600m

Share price $3 on the cards

[Beagle]

That along with how reenues are tracking as per monthly stats all points to FY17 profit being greater than $600m

Share price $3 on the cards

From the conference call at the time of the annual result I think yield has been pretty much as expected so based on info in that regard to date based on maximum visibility I can see, it appears we're on track for the mid point of the forecast range. In regard to fuel and other matters, currency has been pretty much as expected and fuel appears to be materially undershooting the expected cost. Add in the recognition of the realised profit, (as compared the written down value of VAH shares at balance date), on the sale of their remaining VAH shares and factoring in everything we could well be looking at reported statutory profit before tax towards the upper end of the forecast range. The hound is staying on board for the dividends so is pretty much content to let others pontificate about where fair value lies...as long as I get my regular half yearly 10 cps fully imputed feeds and the occasional special I am happy

[bonmaklad]

This is good on good news. Long haul is a loss (imho) and short is where the money is at

Year on Year Cumulative Revenue Comparisons:

Short Haul:
Jul: 99.36%
Aug: 99.26%
Sep: 99.18%
Oct: 99.65%

Long Haul:
Jul: 99.99%
Aug: 98.62%
Sep: 98.07%
Oct: 97.13%

Year on Year October Month Revenue Comparison (Estimate)
Short: 101.06%
Long: 94.30%

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[brend]

However, the numbers of travellers swapping to ANZ/United from Australia are likely to be small so I would not think it is going to have much impact on ANZ profitability. It will be worthwhile as even a percentage point in load factor is good for the bottom line.

They do get alot of australians travelling with AirNZ to South America.

Spoke with someone that works with Qantas...he mentioned to me that their A380 fleet has never made them money!!

[Robomo]

They do get alot of australians travelling with AirNZ to South America.

Spoke with someone that works with Qantas...he mentioned to me that their A380 fleet has never made them money!!

Which is why Qantas won't be taking up the rest of their A380 options (8 I believe). The point to point philosophy of Boeing (vs hub to hub of Airbus) and the better fuel economy and maintenance costs of 2 vs 4 engines is working well in favour of the Boeing 777-300 and Airbus A350 for large long haul. Air New Zealand's decision to go with the 787-9 was the right one.

Interesting though that Emirates, with their massive A380 fleet (up to about 80 now) are making big profits and have repeatedly called on Airbus to do a stretched version of the A380. Presumably Emirates would not have put on an A380 CHC-SYD if they were not going to make a profit.

[tony64peter]

Which is why Qantas won't be taking up the rest of their A380 options (8 I believe). The point to point philosophy of Boeing (vs hub to hub of Airbus) and the better fuel economy and maintenance costs of 2 vs 4 engines is working well in favour of the Boeing 777-300 and Airbus A350 for large long haul. Air New Zealand's decision to go with the 787-9 was the right one.

Interesting though that Emirates, with their massive A380 fleet (up to about 80 now) are making big profits and have repeatedly called on Airbus to do a stretched version of the A380. Presumably Emirates would not have put on an A380 CHC-SYD if they were not going to make a profit.

Emirates also have the biggest fleet of 777 aircraft in the world. Also to park an aircraft for 6 hours in SYD is costly. That's why it's more effective to operate it trans Tasman at a loss than pay the parking fees in Australia. AIR has been complaining about this fare dumping for years.

[winner69]

From the conference call at the time of the annual result I think yield has been pretty much as expected so based on info in that regard to date based on maximum visibility I can see, it appears we're on track for the mid point of the forecast range. In regard to fuel and other matters, currency has been pretty much as expected and fuel appears to be materially undershooting the expected cost. Add in the recognition of the realised profit, (as compared the written down value of VAH shares at balance date), on the sale of their remaining VAH shares and factoring in everything we could well be looking at reported statutory profit before tax towards the upper end of the forecast range. The hound is staying on board for the dividends so is pretty much content to let others pontificate about where fair value lies...as long as I get my regular half yearly 10 cps fully imputed feeds and the occasional special I am happy

QAN in their trading updates give a est full year fuel cost.

AIR doesn't give this info unless its hidden away in their hedging updates

Do you have any idea what AIRs fuel bill will be FY17?

More or less than last years $846m

[Raz]

Which is why Qantas won't be taking up the rest of their A380 options (8 I believe). The point to point philosophy of Boeing (vs hub to hub of Airbus) and the better fuel economy and maintenance costs of 2 vs 4 engines is working well in favour of the Boeing 777-300 and Airbus A350 for large long haul. Air New Zealand's decision to go with the 787-9 was the right one.

Interesting though that Emirates, with their massive A380 fleet (up to about 80 now) are making big profits and have repeatedly called on Airbus to do a stretched version of the A380. Presumably Emirates would not have put on an A380 CHC-SYD if they were not going to make a profit.

Emirates save on the landing charges and then they offer frequent flyers complimentary business class across to aussie to tie you into travelling with them through the east to Europe.

Qantas A380s losing heaps does not surprise me, I always pass a number of them parked up at LAX in the maintenance area..I understand they have had real problems with them.

[Robomo]

Emirates also have the biggest fleet of 777 aircraft in the world. Also to park an aircraft for 6 hours in SYD is costly. That's why it's more effective to operate it trans Tasman at a loss than pay the parking fees in Australia. AIR has been complaining about this fare dumping for years.

A bit rich of AIR to complain about fare dumping as they did the same to destroy Origin Pacific's bid to make a go of Nelson-Palmerston North a few years ago.