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Thread: AIR NZ

  1. #14821
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    AIR featuring this plane in current marketing campaigns

    As somebody has pointed out its an unfortunate marketing to chose an aircraft that's literally spent most of the past two years parked up broken firstly due to the major engine failure and then earlier this year being hit by a catering truck.

    Still seems to be out of action

    Broken and not going that well...yes does sound like the All Blacks
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    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  2. #14822
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    Yeap - 1 nightmare liner still parked up according to my friend.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  3. #14823
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    A Singapore A350-900 flying into Wellington while the surfers look on will look pretty cool

    Makes WLG/MEL/SIN and onwards to Europe that much more attractive
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  4. #14824
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    Reasonable start to year ... revenue wise anyway

    ASK up 4.2% but RASK down 1.3% so revenue up on last year

    https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...ir.nzx-339432/
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  5. #14825
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    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12260673

    Comes across as a diligent type of chap in the conference calls but lacks any charisma so I am hoping this really is a temporary appointment.
    Last edited by Beagle; 21-08-2019 at 04:36 PM.
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  6. #14826
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12260673

    Comes across as a diligent type of chap in the conference calls but lacks any charisma so I am hoping this really is a temporary appointment.
    Says he's not seeking the role permanently..
    Wonder if they have had a late application from the now resigned CEO of Cathy Pacific??
    Although they are probably seeking a more inclusive and diverse type of role model... Seems to be all the rage now...

  7. #14827
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny1 View Post
    Says he's not seeking the role permanently..
    Wonder if they have had a late application from the now resigned CEO of Cathy Pacific??
    Although they are probably seeking a more inclusive and diverse type of role model... Seems to be all the rage now...
    A prerequisite for senior management now seems to be having attended a vast range of cultural, ethnicity, language and gender sensitivity courses. Such fun !
    Last edited by Beagle; 21-08-2019 at 05:30 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  8. #14828
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    So $374m ...worst result for many years .....AIR going through an earnings recession

    But bullish as on next year ...earnings up 20% to $450m (but they could be less and AIRs early estimates usually a bit bullish)

    Whatever awesome result in the circumstances ....even though had to call in external consultants to fix things.p (I’m told that’s not always a good look)


    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...567/305886.pdf
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  9. #14829
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    So $374m ...worst result for many years .....AIR going through an earnings recession

    But bullish as on next year ...earnings up 20% to $450m (but they could be less and AIRs early estimates usually a bit bullish)

    Whatever awesome result in the circumstances ....even though had to call in external consultants to fix things.p (I’m told that’s not always a good look)


    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...567/305886.pdf
    i would say there earnings range of 360 - 450m implies a likely downgrade for next yr in profit if they usually start of optimistic and downgrade as the yr progresses


    auckland airport results are implying next to no growth next yr and a downgrade in profit.
    Last edited by bull....; 22-08-2019 at 08:51 AM.
    bull

  10. #14830
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    Default First Glance

    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...567/305887.pdf
    Revenue, average analyst expectation $5.76b, actual result $5.8b - meet expectations
    Operating Profit, average analyst expectation $365m actual result $374m - beat expectations
    Net Profit after tax , average analyst expectation $254m, actual result $270m - beat expectations
    FY20 outlook, average analyst expectation $420 operating profit, guidance $350m - $450m, mid point $400m - softer outlook
    Dividend maintained.

    Net effect is neutral and I maintain my holding for dividend yield and am not expecting any break out of the recent trading range.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  11. #14831
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...567/305887.pdf
    Revenue, average analyst expectation $5.76b, actual result $5.8b - meet expectations
    Operating Profit, average analyst expectation $365m actual result $374m - beat expectations
    Net Profit after tax , average analyst expectation $254m, actual result $270m - beat expectations
    FY20 outlook, average analyst expectation $420 operating profit, guidance $350m - $450m, mid point $400m - softer outlook
    Dividend maintained.

    Net effect is neutral and I maintain my holding for dividend yield and am not expecting any break out of the recent trading range.
    And what a great yield it is Beagle...gross 11.2% at $2.72
    I think they can maintain it for several years and they keep referring to the ordianry dividend as sustainable which I think they believe.
    Add in the young fleet age and relatively lowm capex in the next 3-4 years and it is easy to see with their operating cash flow that a dividend cut is relatively unlikely and there is always the prospect of a special dividend at some stage as gearing falls back again.
    Agree, a breakout over $3 is unlikely but I'm a happy holder at these levels for the yield in a low rate world.

  12. #14832
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arbroath View Post
    And what a great yield it is Beagle...gross 11.2% at $2.72
    I think they can maintain it for several years and they keep referring to the ordianry dividend as sustainable which I think they believe.
    Add in the young fleet age and relatively lowm capex in the next 3-4 years and it is easy to see with their operating cash flow that a dividend cut is relatively unlikely and there is always the prospect of a special dividend at some stage as gearing falls back again.
    Agree, a breakout over $3 is unlikely but I'm a happy holder at these levels for the yield in a low rate world.
    Agreed, and with the Govt (who ultimately controls all the levers) depending on those juicy dividends to continue, am happy to go along for the ride.

  13. #14833
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arbroath View Post
    And what a great yield it is Beagle...gross 11.2% at $2.72
    I think they can maintain it for several years and they keep referring to the ordianry dividend as sustainable which I think they believe.
    Add in the young fleet age and relatively lowm capex in the next 3-4 years and it is easy to see with their operating cash flow that a dividend cut is relatively unlikely and there is always the prospect of a special dividend at some stage as gearing falls back again.
    Agree, a breakout over $3 is unlikely but I'm a happy holder at these levels for the yield in a low rate world.
    Yes it certainly is a fantastic yield in this era of interest rates at unchartered lifetime low's.
    In terms of its sustainability. A few thoughts. At the last conference call they noted they had only cut the dividend twice in the airlines history, after 9/11 and the GFC.
    Barring another one of those events or some similar sized exogenous shock I think there is a very high probability the dividend is sustainable for the foreseeable future.
    Average analyst view is actually for it to increase to 23 cps next year and 24 cps in FY21 https://www.marketscreener.com/AIR-N...07/financials/

    As you note, capex for the next 4 years is very benign, mostly about $500m but FY21 under $400m and well below annual depreciation of $567m for FY19 and forecast depreciation of approx. $637m for FY20, (extra $70m expected next year, source, just completed conference call). Over the next 4 years based on my analysis annual average capex is approx. $160m less than depreciation so that gives an interesting insight into their ability to pay ongoing strong dividends in the medium term.

    I tend to back out any immediate term dividend, (as partial return of capital invested) from forward yield calculations so my "look through" view on the yield at $2.72 taking a medium term investment view is $2.72 less the almost immediate return of 11 cents = $2.61 net investment for the medium term. 23 cents fully imputed for FY20 = 23 / 0.72 = 31.94 cps gross and on a net investment of $2.61 = 12.2% Gross yield. I am a very happy holder at that level and added more this morning.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  14. #14834
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    Trust NBR to say this CEO pay up while staff dividend down.
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  15. #14835
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arbroath View Post
    And what a great yield it is Beagle...gross 11.2% at $2.72
    I think they can maintain it for several years and they keep referring to the ordianry dividend as sustainable which I think they believe.
    Add in the young fleet age and relatively lowm capex in the next 3-4 years and it is easy to see with their operating cash flow that a dividend cut is relatively unlikely and there is always the prospect of a special dividend at some stage as gearing falls back again.
    Agree, a breakout over $3 is unlikely but I'm a happy holder at these levels for the yield in a low rate world.
    The captive domestic market and solid brand appeals to older kiwi's going overseas..if they can't pay the dividend the economy will be heading to hell and that will be an issue for all NZ asset classes.,

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