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Thread: AIR NZ

  1. #14896
    A BEARISH BULL winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Kia Ora
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/115...demark-kia-ora
    Nice to see that divvy hit my account today.
    They giving up trademarking Kia Ora I hear
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  2. #14897
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    "............
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  3. #14898
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    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...225/307983.pdf
    Load's are good but RASK is down a bit.
    https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world...cid=spartandhp
    I think retribution in the form a measured military strike of some kind against Iran is likely in the near future.
    Where it goes and its effect on oil prices from there is anyone's guess but I think a new geopolitical risk premium will apply to Oil going forward for some time so have reduced my stake in AIR temporarily as a prudent risk management measure.
    Last edited by Beagle; 19-09-2019 at 10:47 AM.
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  4. #14899
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...225/307983.pdf
    Load's are good but RASK is down a bit.
    https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world...cid=spartandhp
    I think retribution in the form a measured military strike of some kind against Iran is likely in the near future.
    Where it goes and its effect on oil prices from there is anyone's guess but I think a new geopolitical risk premium will apply to Oil going forward for some time so have reduced my stake in AIR temporarily as a prudent risk management measure.
    Fair enough, but nice divvie in the bank account today.

  5. #14900
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    European aviation continues major shakeouts https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49791249

  6. #14901
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    European aviation continues major shakeouts https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49791249
    Probably more the shakeout of an old fashioned brick and mortar based travel agency which happend to run as well a fleet of charter planes ...
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  7. #14902
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Thomas Cook failed to adapt, simple as that.
    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...492/308306.pdf
    Market not exactly enthralled by this capital intensive announcement. All very well to get a bunch of shiny new fuel efficient birds but one would hope they're vastly more reliable that the last lot.
    Return on invested capital has been slipping over the years, under 11% now whereas Qantas with its older fleet is getting over 18% !
    Looking at depreciation per annum over the last 5 years its clearly evident that this has been rising a lot quicker in percentage terms that the overall sales lift and is increasingly a drag on net profit.
    Depreciation expected to be up another $60-70m this year according to their most recent analysts call. Ouch !

    What is the point of buying all these very expensive shiny new fuel efficient birds if they just pass on the fuel savings to the customers with lower fares ?
    Interestingly by comparison human resources costs have broadly kept in line with the growth rate in overall sales over the last 5 years so the issue really lies with the capital intensity of the business. The current lower rates of return on invested capital is something that definitely warrants keeping a close eye on.

    Given the obvious decline in earnings lately I wonder how they are going to drive more efficiency out of the business going forward. Not much point asking Chris Luxon is there...
    Yield is great for sure with this one but those looking for capital gains in the years ahead would be best looking elsewhere in my opinion.
    Last edited by Beagle; 24-09-2019 at 11:17 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  8. #14903
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    Jetstar pulls the pin on regional services, this was so predictable a couple of years back.PS-Doubling their flights to Q/town will keep prices down and keep us snow sports enthusiasts happy.

  9. #14904
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...cid=spartandhp

    AIR will now be able to charge a sustainable price on its regional routes that reflects the true cost of operations and a decent return on capital employed.
    Good day for AIR shareholders. Happy Beagle.
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12270809
    Last edited by Beagle; 25-09-2019 at 01:25 PM.
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  10. #14905
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    Annual meeting thoughts.

    I'm bored already. No change in outlook but they noted fuel has been trading above $U.S.75 Barrel. (just put the prices on regional routes up already and be done with it)
    Last edited by Beagle; 25-09-2019 at 02:29 PM.
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  11. #14906
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    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12270903

    The Bulldog is at it again.
    What he fails to realise is that its quite obvious the current regional pricing is unsustainable and that AIR are perfectly entitled to earn a decent return on their capital employed in the regions. As someone who rarely uses regional air services why should my main trunk airfares subsidise the regions ?
    Will the regional travellers subsidise the one hour cost of commuting for me to get to Auckland airport or the $52 it costs for one days parking at Auckland airport ?
    I don't think so. I hope AIR's profit in terms of percentage per annum on invested capital returns to more normal level's commensurate with the risks of running an airline. 15% instead of just over 10% would be nice now that we don't have to subsidise regional airfares due to JetStar trying to buy market share any more.
    Last edited by Beagle; 25-09-2019 at 05:13 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  12. #14907
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    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/116...rices#comments
    Some interesting comments. Owner of a major Napier boat manufacturing business told me JetStar's planes were extremely old and their flights were so unreliable in practical business terms they were an entirely unsuitable choice. He also mentioned that most of his business contacts in Napier felt the same way.
    If you offer **** service this is what happens, customer stop supporting you. My guess is JetStar's regional loading was well under 70%.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  13. #14908
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/116...rices#comments
    Some interesting comments. Owner of a major Napier boat manufacturing business told me JetStar's planes were extremely old and their flights were so unreliable in practical business terms they were an entirely unsuitable choice. He also mentioned that most of his business contacts in Napier felt the same way.
    If you offer **** service this is what happens, customer stop supporting you. My guess is JetStar's regional loading was well under 70%.
    Not exactly like Air NZ is highly reliable....

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/...tual-last-year

    Certainly I've experience often lately where may not be necessarily 15 mins late, but closer to 15mins than being on time

    Most business people would choose Air NZ anyway, due to Koru lounge, flight times and destination network. JetStar would mainly be the leisure traveler.
    Last edited by Sideshow Bob; 26-09-2019 at 10:43 AM.

  14. #14909
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    A bit late is one thing, cancellation of flights due to engineering issues, pilot or crew issues another.
    My understanding is that JetStar's regional operation was resourced on a very skinny basis with very old planes and very little in reserve for contingencies, spare parts or relief crew. You think a 30+ year old plane might be more than little more unreliable than one that's 7-8 years old on average ?
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  15. #14910
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    A bit late is one thing, cancellation of flights due to engineering issues, pilot or crew issues another.
    My understanding is that JetStar's regional operation was resourced on a very skinny basis with very old planes and very little in reserve for contingencies, spare parts or relief crew. You think a 30+ year old plane might be more than little more unreliable than one that's 7-8 years old on average ?
    Certainly JetStar have a reputation to cancelling flights relatively often, with no other alternative - one of the reasons I don't fly with them. Mind you, flying out of ZQN on an AIR ATR, flights are cancelled often enough, with minimal alternative.....

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