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Thread: AIR - Air NZ.

  1. #9941
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    You are still not adjusting for the 25 cent special divvy so your thesis is flawed IMO.
    No thesis, Roger - just an innocent observation and question ;

    Not sure either, whether it would be in any way appropriate to adjust the SP trend for the special divvie (which in reality was a partial capital return minus the amount they lost in a bad investment). Obviously - it depends what you want to show with the graph. If you intend to show past returns, than by all means add dividends and capital returns. However - if you want to observe SP patterns - what good is it to add past dividends? The money is gone (distributed) and will do AIR no good anymore. Any SP movement will happen from the now lower base - and this is what the graph shows.

    Anyway - it sort of feels you still seem to have your heart blood in this share. I remember how this feels, I lost this way a lot of money myself (though not with AIR); I do hope you are right and AIR passed already rock bottom, but I am based on the 2017 analyst predictions, the cyclical nature of the aviation industry and the ongoing jitter in the share markets (anybody noticing that the NZX50 is very close to finishing a beautiful head and shoulders?) not convinced. Anyway - this makes things interesting ... would be terribly boring if we would always agree, wouldn't it?
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  2. #9942
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    A 10 year chart (which I am not allowed to post anymore because it has hand drawn lines on it and not very sophisticated) with similar cycles on it would suggest $1.50 is still on the cards next year
    But winner you were talking $3 a week or so ago, myself I remain firm on my $2.50ish price target for 2017, I'm very comfortable to continue to hold an XOS holding long term, can't really see any better options on the NZX to be overweight in.

  3. #9943
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    A 10 year chart (which I am not allowed to post anymore because it has hand drawn lines on it and not very sophisticated) with similar cycles on it would suggest $1.50 is still on the cards next year
    I feel awful about criticising your chart, sorry, so far it's been pretty close to forecasting the SP.

    Here's my rarely published monthly chart (12 year view) showing the cycles, in as much as I see them. To-date this month the SP has broken out of the severe downtrend and looks like back testing it now. The less steep downtrend if it stays in force does happen to co-incide with the current cycle down at around $160.

    Attachment 8537

    Not advice but interesting that if one took an ultra conservative approach and just bought and sold the 10EMA/20SMA monthly crossovers, they would've done pretty well, with dividends on top while holding.

    As an aside, I don't think it's valid to suggest the dividends should be included in one chart when it suits and not in another chart when it doesn't suit. Dividend included charts are useful for portfolio views, but they are not a reflection of the market, being what people buy or sell for right now.

  4. #9944
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    No thesis, Roger - just an innocent observation and question ;

    Not sure either, whether it would be in any way appropriate to adjust the SP trend for the special divvie (which in reality was a partial capital return minus the amount they lost in a bad investment).Record ever special so in my view it is. If I remember correctly Hoop was also of the same view


    Obviously - it depends what you want to show with the graph. If you intend to show past returns, than by all means add dividends and capital returns. However - if you want to observe SP patterns - what good is it to add past dividends? The money is gone (distributed) and will do AIR no good anymore. Any SP movement will happen from the now lower base - and this is what the graph shows.Lets me advance that debate by giving an illustration.

    If one were comparing the total shareholder return of two companies RYM and AIR over the last two years and brought up the SP graph's of both one would note RYM has fallen a little whereas AIR has fallen from $2.50 to $2.12, more in percentage terms. Adjusting for dividends paid however RYM is still probably down, (I haven't had the time to do the math's) but AIR is up due to 45 cents in fully imputed divvy's paid this year and about 20 cps last year. Dividend inclusive charts give a more accurate picture of total shareholder returns whereas dividend exclusive charts like those on ANZ securities give a more positive view towards low dividend yield shares


    Anyway - it sort of feels you still seem to have your heart blood in this share. I like aviation and its an iconic N.Z. company with a long historyI remember how this feels, I lost this way a lot of money myself (though not with AIR); I do hope you are right and AIR passed already rock bottom, but I am based on the 2017 analyst predictions, the cyclical nature of the aviation industry and the ongoing jitter in the share marketsbased on average analyst forecasts for FY18 when all the recent new competition will be fully bedded in for the full financial year the stock trades on a PE of 8, well below its 10 year average of about 11 (anybody noticing that the NZX50 is very close to finishing a beautiful head and shoulders?)now that's an interesting observation ! not convinced. Anyway - this makes things interesting ... would be terribly boring if we would always agree, wouldn't it?
    Absolutely it would, what would we have left to enjoy debating ? I'm cautious on the market overall but am happy to take modest positions in very well managed companies with proven business model's paying highly attractive fully imputed dividends like AIR. Of course there is risk, risk abounds in all business's and people have to decide for themselves whether the returns justify the risks.

    AIR meets my investment criteria based on valuation fundamentals but also I note after accounting for the effect of the 25 cent special it is in a decent uptrend. Even unadjusted like you seem to prefer it broke through to the upside of the 100 day MA a while back, (currently 100 day unadjusted MA appears to be about $2.04). My investment approach going forward is to only hold companies that meet the following criteria:-

    1. Have a long and well established and profitable trading history
    2. Have well respected management and directors
    3. Have a well defined, proven and robust business model (AIR made money throughout the GFC)
    4. Pay a sustainable dividend yield of at least 5% net to me i.e. fully imputed, preferably more than 7% net, (counting the money coming in makes any self respecting number cruncher happy)
    5. Have a sensible level of gearing for the industry in which they operate
    6. Fundamentally appear to be good value relative to their peer group and the market overall
    7. This is lesson learned for 2016 - Only hold stocks that are trading north of their 100 day MA and sell when they break below that point absolutely regardless of the other 6 points above, (I will adjust for special divvies when calculating this 100 day MA trigger point but not normal divvies)
    8. I won't invest in private equity floats in any circumstances whatsoever until at least 12 months financial results have been released so we see the real truth about their financial performance.
    9. I won't buy any company not presently making a profit, (Bean counters have a very deep suspicion of any company presently losing money promising they will conquer the world in the next few years), this is probably an occupational hazard but I reckon its served me pretty well over the last 30 years of investing.
    10. Don't invest in unethical companies (Gambling, war, tobacco, liquor or any other social harm like fringe money lenders who pillage poor people's scant resources, Geneva finance springs readily to mind).

    AIR meets all my present investment criteria and presently accounts for approx 13% of my liquid investments. http://www.biblemoneymatters.com/wha...out-investing/
    In here is great stuff including what the bible has to say about investing and diversification. I think my liquid investments asset allocation to AIR is very soundly based

    Anyway for what its worth that's my 10 commandments of investing going forward. I shall print them out lest I forget at some stage in the future.

    P.S. And happy flying http://www.traveller.com.au/how-to-h...economy-gle5hd

    Best wishes to all for Christmas and the new year.
    Last edited by Beagle; 18-12-2016 at 05:36 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #9945
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    Just curious, why do you choose the 100-day moving average as your trigger point?

  6. #9946
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    ...
    7. This is lesson learned for 2016 - Only hold stocks that are trading north of their 100 day MA and sell when they break below that point absolutely regardless of the other 6 points above, (I will adjust for special divvies when calculating this 100 day MA trigger point but not normal divvies)
    ...
    Have you back tested that ?

    Best Wishes
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    om mani peme hum

  7. #9947
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiwichick View Post
    Just curious, why do you choose the 100-day moving average as your trigger point?
    Personal choice really. Use tighter trigger points like 50 day MA and you can get more wrong exit / entry signals, use looser TA trigger points like 200 day MA and you can lose too much waiting for what can often seem inevitable.

    NO PT you know I haven't. I'm just running with what my gut tells me is right. 100 days is plenty of time for the market to tell me I'm wrong, (acknowledging nobody gets it right more than about 75% of the time), but long enough for short term aberrations and oscillations in the SP to iron themselves out. I reckon its a handy tool in the toolkit so I'm using it going forward.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #9948
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    Still holding. I have a weighted av of $1.79 since a few months ago. I only look to make 30% a year.. so I am tempted to plan my out towards $2.2

    Everyone still in for the long?

  9. #9949
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    Quote Originally Posted by bonmaklad View Post
    Still holding. I have a weighted av of $1.79 since a few months ago. I only look to make 30% a year.. so I am tempted to plan my out towards $2.2

    Everyone still in for the long?
    I just sold out yesterday. Learning about TA and not confident about the short/mid-term future for AIR. Bought bank shares instead.

    (disc. total newbie.)

  10. #9950
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    sold a third of my shareholding recently, from 170s buy in price, 35 cps ok for now to take off the table:-)

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