Best retirement village stock

[fish]

Having sold out of a lot of stocks recently I am looking at buying into one or two of these-perhaps one NZ and one Aussie.
I dont have the time or ability to do this myself and would appreciate reasoned opinions on this topic.
With the average tenure of only 7 years and profits made on selling afterwards I feel big future profits.
Its a growing field with the aging demographics but will take time before profits are realised

[BlackPeter]

Having sold out of a lot of stocks recently I am looking at buying into one or two of these-perhaps one NZ and one Aussie.
I dont have the time or ability to do this myself and would appreciate reasoned opinions on this topic.
With the average tenure of only 7 years and profits made on selling afterwards I feel big future profits.
Its a growing field with the aging demographics but will take time before profits are realised

Define "best". As in any other industry it is a tradeoff between risk and reward - and looking into the big three in NZ and INA in Australia, I don't think that anybody can predict which of them will do "best" in the next decade or so.

RYM - (forward PE of 14.5 and CAGR of 14) biggest player (lowest risk?), middle of the road in terms of earnings and growth and most diversified (with their Australian operation). However, this might mean as well the risk of Australia not going that well - RYM would not be the first NZ company getting a bloody nose in the West island.

SUM - (forward PE 11 and forward CAGR 17.6) highest NZ based growth, good NZ diversification and youngest building stock (i.e. less risk for building substance problems);.

MET - on face value best PE (forward PE of 7.3 however CAGR slightly below 10) ... however low regional diversification (higher risk) and older building substance (higher risk).

INA - (forward PE of 12.5 and forward CAGR of 25): different business model (rent instead of deferred management fee). Outstanding growth (however part funded with lots of CR's). Just Australia based. However - if you buy too many of them (getting over the de minimis rule ($50k per person for all not exempted overseas investments), your NZ tax return will turn more complicated ...

Take your pick. I am holding at current SUM and INA, but would not be able to predict the winners for 2027 ; Am however sure that they all will do fine in the long run.

[000831]

For the retirement stocks, those companies show growth characters most of time.



The industry shows a clearly growth cycle.

Startup - Locally growth with some significant market segments with IPO and other fund raising to support its growth.
Growth - Enter other cities retirement market. Low Dividend, Business Model Simple, copy and growth.
Expansion - Accumulated growth national wide. Low Dividend, Mixed Business Model.
Maturity - Profit growth slows down and debt level high with high Dividend. Companies may enter other country territory to seek further growth. Explosure more risk, such as global financial risk, foreign currency and industry rules, etc. Business Model complex.


Take ARV for an example,

It started up Christchurch with 19 retirements villages, then enter national wide territory. Eventually, it may enter AUS, CANADA or US market, just as other companies in the same industry. ARV definitely is in the phrase two, growth stage, with low dividend and high growth rate.

RYM matured, enter international market with high debt level and dividend.

SUM with high debt level, its growth stage may stay somewhere between expansion and maturity.

Then you compare those stocks with its price, market capitalisation and business models. I rekon that ARV is the best performing stock during 2017-2019 IMO.

Attachment 8883


The purpose for analysis of the whole industry is to seek the best return.

$3/4 grows to $6/7 means 100% growth in profit. However, a $1 stock grows to $4/$5 means 300% in return.

RYM market price does not change much those years for two reasons IMO. 1. The price already reflects its growth rate and the company entered maturity stage. 2. The price is too high, the funds do not want to buy more to aviod liquidity problem.

Now, we maybe need to look at those stocks priced under $2 for a good return, if their growth is solid and stable.

[Lewylewylewy]

...$3/4 grows to $6/7 means 100% growth in profit. However, a $1 stock grows to $4/$5 means 300% in return.

RYM market price does not change much those years for two reasons IMO. 1. The price already reflects its growth rate and the company entered maturity stage. 2. The price is too high, the funds do not want to buy more to aviod liquidity problem.

Now, we maybe need to look at those stocks priced under $2 for a good return, if their growth is solid and stable.

Agreed, RYM just need to do a share split, then this will make the company worth more... If only they'd registered more shares when the company was founded!

😜

[Lewylewylewy]

https://www.google.co.nz/search?q=nz...obile&ie=UTF-8

[whatsup]

Howabout the latest entry OCA ?

[iceman]

Agreed, RYM just need to do a share split, then this will make the company worth more... If only they'd registered more shares when the company was founded!

��

Ummm, how would a share split make them worth more ??? Hasn´t hurt Berkshire Hathaway having expensive shares !

[Joshuatree]

Howabout the latest entry OCA ?

Too early to tell but thats where my money is at the mo; we will see soon.

My ideal retirement village would have

In the R&R section; spa pools with giant TV screens; a cocktail service;

And a soft drugs dispenser; and a reminiscing room to lounge in when under the influence and to be creative. A full array of art materials to make some big colourful canvases and some Hinuera stone blocks out side to whittle away on.

Some listening rooms one with a stereo system including Peerless speakers and a turntable and thousands of Lp's another room for streaming music, another for CD's.

A masseuse available 12 hours away to deal to aches and pains and stiffness.

An IT room where an IT person can personally help with ones computer and cellphone glitches.

A leading edge room where one can be clued up on the absolute latest discoveries and breakthroughs and keep up with the grandkids.Regular TED like speakers.

A volunteer service where one can do great things for ones community by donation or if able, doing.This would include environmental issues.


A competition /gamesroom to be an old fool in and boast and exaggerate a bit.

A blokart track

A tower where one can look at the world through a 300 zoom camera.

A large nursery and garden where one can cultivate flowers plants and trees for all.A fence surrounding it to keep all pests out.

A safe place for a bonfire every month where one can stoke the fire, yarn and look into the fire and link up with ones ancestors.

That will do for starters from me. What else

[see weed]

I like the blokart track. And maybe a mini casino, and a bar. Will look forward to moving into one of your villages.

[davflaws]

I hope I will still be interested in sex.