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  1. #31
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    From DEC qtr report ---8.4mill in cash

    Exploration
    During the December 2017 Quarter we continued flow back operations from Tamarama 1. The well
    continued to improve gas flow to surface, which was in line with our expectations. The plunger lift
    system was successfully operating on the automated flow and buildup cycle mode during the quarter
    and continued to meet our expectations.
    Preparation is well advanced for the drilling of two additional appraisal wells - Tamarama-2 and 3. We
    are expecting significant improvements in wells production performance benefitting from a
    combination of factors, resulting from our research and data obtained from Tamarama-1 including
    design, completion and fracture stimulation methods. We believe this will greatly enhance the
    economics of the Windorah project.
    Well sites location have been selected and cleared with relevant approvals in place including cultural
    heritage clearance and landholder access. Longlead items such as casings and wellheads for the drilling
    program have been purchased or secured. Real Energy has not yet contracted a drilling rig but has
    been in discussions with several drilling contractors. We have rejected a proposal that included
    mobilisation and demobilisation that was in excess of $2.5 Million. A more recent proposal has
    significantly reduced this cost with discussions continuing. We are hopeful that we can finalise
    negotiations on this rig shortly
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  2. #32
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Default from low 7's to 9.3c enjoying the run of late bring on the drilling HUGE UPSIDE

    REAL ENERGY TO COMMENCE HIGH IMPACT
    COOPER BASIN DRILLING IN EARLY APRIL
     Drilling contract with Ensign International executed
     Contract signed for two firm appraisal wells Tamarama- 2 & Tamarama- 3 in ATP927P
     Preparation for field operations underway
     Fully funded for the drilling of 2 wells
     Pilot production to be established if wells are successful
     Real well placed to unlock significant value from its prospective Cooper Basin acreage
    Sydney, 16th March 2018: Cooper Basin focused oil & gas exploration company Real Energy Corporation
    Limited (ASX: RLE) (“Real Energy”) advises that it has signed a contract with Ensign International for drilling
    services at its 100%-owned ATP927P exploration permit in the Windorah project, Cooper Basin, in early April
    2018.
    A contract has been signed for Rig 964 to drill the two pilot development wells, Tamarama - 2 & Tamarama
    - 3. If the wells are successful, Real Energy will look to establish pilot production out of the wells and look to
    connect flow lines so that sales gas can then be supplied to Australia’s East Coast gas market.
    Wellsite and access roads construction for the drilling of the two wells will commence within the next few
    days. Real Energy is implementing the Research and Development it has gathered from the drilling, testing
    and fracture stimulation from Tamarama-1, and this knowledge is being used to work up a drilling program
    for a deviated well design suitable for multi-stage fracs for both wells.
    These wells represent a major catalyst to potentially convert Real Energy’s contingent resources into
    reserves, and ultimately into production. The other aim is to start proving up the delivery of basin centred
    gas play within ATP927 which has a prospective resource estimated by De Golyer & Mac Naugton to be 13.7
    Trillion Cubic Feet of gas initially in place.
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  3. #33
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    Yes its great to be back in black with this one also. Predictions of mid may for first Tamarama drill result.Plenty of cash to do both by the looks ,$8 mill plus.
    Investor Presentation

  4. #34
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    Yes,
    this is worth following. It has not quite been proven but if you want to change your life put as much as you can on this one with a risk factor of 20%.
    I have only 200k shares but wish I had more. This could get seriously big.
    DYOR

  5. #35
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Yes did some numbers and I came out with $1.50-$2 SP if RLE can indeed convert Prospective resources to 2p-2c

    also not holding enough ...would love to have 1mill but less than half that
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  6. #36
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    TAMARAMA 2 WELL SPUDDED

    Not long now
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  7. #37
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Default Looking good guys >

    Managing Director of Real Energy Mr Scott Brown commented: “We have made considerable progress with
    the Windorah Gas Project and are well on track with our strategy to develop the field and move towards the
    much anticipated production phase. The consistent gas-charged sandstone formations encountered in both
    Tamarama-2 and Tamarama-3 provide us with excellent results which are consistent with our geological
    model and align with the pre drilling predictions.”
    “Windorah gas project is potentially a huge gas resource, based on the in place gas resources of over 13.7 Tcf,
    and we have a lot of scope to progressively develop Windorah Gas Project which sits within a proven
    hydrocarbon province. We have over 682,000 acres, making Real Energy’s project one of the largest 100%
    independently owned positions in the Cooper Basin.”
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  8. #38
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Default RLE must be a takeover target sub 50c IMHO

    https://www.theage.com.au/business/t...01-p4ziy5.html

    “The latest EY report found that 73 per cent of oil and gas executives expect to complete more deals in the next 12 months compared with 37 per cent just six months ago. It isn’t surprising, therefore, that 74 per cent expect their M&A pipeline to increase in the next year,” EY global oil and gas transaction leader Andy Brogan said.
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  9. #39
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    AGL chief executive Andy Vesey. AGL finds itself a tool of pre-election retail politics. Louie Douvis
    by Matthew Stevens
    It beggars belief that AGL could plead any sort of ignorance as a defence in its bid to resist Federal Energy Minister Josh Freydenberg's determined effort to make the gentailer the scapegoat in Australia's energy wars.

    The AGL proposition, as reported in The Australian Financial Review on Monday, is that a decision made in December 2015 to sell $2 billion worth of gas to the Santos-operated liquid natural gas plant in Queensland was made to look "very poor" and "irresponsible" by a set of circumstances that were unpredictable and thus not anticipated.

    But the AGL executive and board need only to have read and understood a seminal 2014 study into the "cliff edge" state of NSW gas markets to appreciate that the profit-buttressing 2015 deal left the business exposed to greater risk of being short of gas.

    Advertisement
    From an AGL perspective, this wasn't just another paper that exposed the increasingly fragile state of east coast gas markets. It was authored by AGL's then chief economist, Paul Simahauser, and its head of sustainability, Tim Nelson. It was published under the badge of the AGL Applied Economic and Policy Research. And it is still carried on the gentailer's digital gateway for intelligence, the AGLblog (though under the less than inviting title of Working Paper No. 40). The real title of the work is "Solving for 'x" – The New South Wales Gas Supply Cliff". The "x" in this case refers to gas supply or, rather, the impending lack of it.

    [​IMG]
    Australia's best manager of progress in LNG is Oil Search's Peter Botten. He is as commercially savvy as he is politically adroit. Daniel Munoz
    'Material' shortages
    AGL
    AGL ENERGY FPO (AGL)
    $21.82-0.02-0.09%
    volume 2527530value 55508391.7
    5 YEARS
    1 DAY
    May14Jul17GMT+1000 (AUS Eastern Standard Time)Jun13Jun1815202513.2227.15
    Last updated: Thu Jun 21 2018 - 9:16:36 pm
    View full quote
    ASX Announcements Expand
    Among the many gems of foresight, the study noted: "In our base case scenario, the extent of shortages in NSW is very material. In all there are 118 days of energy shortages or 'event days' per annum with varying degrees of intensity. To be sure, these results are mild by comparison to the Independent Market Operator equivalent case."

    After assessing that the "median shortage in NSW was 102 terajoules per day (TJ/d)", the study warned: "The maximum shortage is 256TJ/d and under these conditions 39.7 per cent of the NSW market would be technically 'unserved'."

    AGL's experts noted that this "cliff-edge" in contracted supply was not an event unique in NSW but warned that the resolution would not be as straightforward as it had been in the past.

    "… the combination of rapid LNG load growth in Queensland and more recent (and unexpected) supply-side development constraints in NSW has created uncertainty as to how the situation … will be resolved this time around."

    [​IMG]
    Minister for Environment and Energy Josh Frydenberg continues to name AGL as the single parent of a market failure that has many more fathers.Alex Ellinghausen
    "The problem that we identify is seasonal and spatial," the study warned, before noting that the peak winter load of gas demand was 80 per cent higher than the summer load. "The issue facing policymakers is that even under ideal operating conditions, there is insufficient gas production, pipeline and storage capacity during the height of winter to meet system-wide peak gas demand, particularly during working weekdays when diurnal patterns reach their maximum."

    Given those warnings and the fact that by the time the December 2015 deal with Santos rolled around AGL was but two months from pulling the pin on its supply-side safety net in NSW, the Gloucester coal seam gas project, it is just hard to fathom where on earth the company imagined it was going to get its gas from.

    A series of unfortunate events
    That a series of unfortunate events ended up making the gas market even tighter than AGL's own experts had foreshadowed doesn't make the original misjudgment any less forgivable. It is hard to deflect accusations of price gouging in gas and electricity markets when the decisions made by past and present management appear only to have added to price enhancing supply-side tension that their own people were illuminating for them.


    In the past, as on Monday, AGL has noted that the closure at short notice of Victoria's Hazelwood generators changed everything given the gap it created in electricity supply has been filled partially by gas-fired alternatives.

    The reason this matters so much is that it changes the traditional seasonality of gas demand. We use electricity to run our air conditioners. Given more of that power comes now from gas-fired peaking power plants, we are using more gas in summer. AGL noted in Monday's Financial Reviewthat it has a winter-peak call on the gas it sells to exporters. But the switch in demand patterns leaves it now exposed to summer demand spikes.

    In Monday's Financial Review the company also cited the sudden decline of Bass Strait production as a similarly unforeseeable event. Quite honestly it is hard to warrant how anyone in gas could claim ignorance of Bass Strait's declining productivity. Sure, the detail offered by the market regulator back in 2017 was confronting. But all AEMO did was put numbers to what was common knowledge.

    But, either way, AGL's own people were warning that contracted supply to NSW was about to fall off a cliff and that they could not quite see how the hole might be filled. So why surrender a source of a future pool of liquidity, particularly given that it appeared to have been gathered in the first place as a means of firming AGL's capacity to service its own demands?


    The net result is that for the short-term gain that comes of selling $3 a gigajoule gas for a good deal more to a desperate gas freezer AGL has left itself vulnerable to the same loss of social licence that saw NSW lock the gate on coal seam gas.

    AGL vulnerable
    As the Financial Review's Angela Macdonald-Smith reported on Wednesday, there is already talk that AGL's yet-committed LNG regasification plant should be declared an open access facility and Minister Frydenberg and his state counterparts continue to hold the gun of regulation at the heads of AGL and its competing gentailers.

    For all that I have a good deal of sympathy for the difficult place that AGL finds itself in right now, it does no one any good to ignore history's complications and or to misallocate its misjudgments.


    Having soiled its relationship with the federal government through a consistently botched engagement over plans to close the Liddell coal-fired power station and replace it with firming gas-fired capacity, AGL finds itself a tool of pre-election retail politics.

    It is with some good reason that AGL worries that Minister Frydenberg continues to name AGL as the single parent of a market failure that has many more fathers.

    In fact, the list of the guilty parties is long and AGL is one of the more incidental contributors to the mess we have.

    Others to blame
    The east coast market would be fully supplied if the governments that approved the machinery of gas exports that quadrupled the east coast gas market had then worked more actively and productively with the gas industry to garner some sort of community consensus that would have allowed the coal seam gas industry to migrate across the Queensland border into NSW.

    But top billing in this whole sorry saga just has to go to the gas producers whose guileless egotism delivered Gladstone with three separate liquid natural gas projects, one of which did not have gas enough to fill the second of its two production trains.

    Australia's best manager of progress in LNG is Oil Search's Peter Botten. He is as commercially savvy as he is politically adroit and has a wonderful ability to draw simplicity from complexity.

    And the folk who used to run Santos would have done well to heed his advice on the foundation stone of a successful LNG project. If you don't have the gas to fill the machine, then don't build it. But Santos built its second train because that was the only way to make an investment case. But it still hasn't filled that train despite hoovering supplies from third-party suppliers that are expected to meet up to 40 per cent of the gas needs of the Santos joint venture over the next half a decade.
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  10. #40
    Divorced from logic Hectorplains's Avatar
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    Drifted back down to 9c. They need to get fracking before this goes anywhere ... sounds like that's a way off yet too. No contract in place - could be a couple of months yet.

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