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  1. #1
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Default What do we think of Jacinda

    Given posters obvious inability to create subject specific threads I'm going to start creating a few.

    So today. Very interesting. I'm thinking theres now a chance Labour will pick up a few more votes.

    The possibility of a Labour / Green / NZ First has just improved significantly.

    Since some of us see National as more left than central a good chance she may now pinch votes from that group.

    Regardless I'm now interested in the 2017 elections!

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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    Given posters obvious inability to create subject specific threads I'm going to start creating a few.

    So today. Very interesting. I'm thinking theres now a chance Labour will pick up a few more votes.

    The possibility of a Labour / Green / NZ First has just improved significantly.

    Since some of us see National as more left than central a good chance she may now pinch votes from that group.

    Regardless I'm now interested in the 2017 elections!
    FWIW I think they're in with a chance. Winston will be in like a rat up a drainpipe but his price will be baubles galore; the main one being Winston getting Prime Minister role - and Labour and Greens will almost certainly accommodate that bauble. I can't imagine a bigger mess, but it's highly likely.

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    Quote Originally Posted by fungus pudding View Post
    the main one being Winston getting Prime Minister role .
    I had exactly the same thought

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    Quote Originally Posted by fungus pudding View Post
    FWIW I think they're in with a chance. Winston will be in like a rat up a drainpipe but his price will be baubles galore; the main one being Winston getting Prime Minister role - and Labour and Greens will almost certainly accommodate that bauble. I can't imagine a bigger mess, but it's highly likely.
    Expect the worst,and you are not surprised.
    At present time I am about 70% invested in NZ,and 30% in Australia.
    Maybe after the election I will be 30% NZ and 70% Australia.?

  5. #5
    Membaa
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    Definitely has become interesting and no doubt Jacinda has charisma and charm otherwise lacking in previous Labour leaders post-Helen Clark.

    Nevertheless, unless I'm mistaken it is the Party vote that counts in regards to which Party has the opportunity to form a government. In that event I cannot see Adern being so compelling as to move Labour into the preferred Party hence not having the opportunity to form a government.

    Assuming National win the Party vote, I suspect the minor parties will fall over themselves to get into power by coalition, assuming also that National do not have the Party vote numbers to unilaterally form a government. It would follow that despite the outcome of the Maori, Seymour and Dunne Party's, that Winston is again kingmaker. He has always said that he will side with the Party that has the votes on the night to form a Government.

    Still, finally there is something of interest in the forthcoming election and lead up to it. Adern has for the first time, for this voter, managed to simply and succinctly explain her Party's policies and her own values and views, in a manner which is comprehensible and worth considering. Good on her. Well done Labour, smart move but perhaps just not enough given the time remaining.

    Today I look forward to the forthcoming campaign and the election, which I could not say yesterday.
    Last edited by Baa_Baa; 01-08-2017 at 06:48 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Maybe after the election I will be 30% NZ and 70% Australia.?
    I wouldnt be too defeatist. Regardless of result there will be opportunities. Be it National bribes or Labour / Green engineering opportunities will be there for more government we expenditure. Which means we have to be a bit smart on where we can invest.

    I'm picking something from labour on the youth vote. Maybe reduced student loans which will give them more cash which they have to spend - perhaps on MOA

    As for Australia - who can keep up? It was Rudd then Gilliard then Rudd then Abbott then Turnbull - all since 2010

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post

    Nevertheless, unless I'm mistaken it is the Party vote that counts in regards to which Party has the opportunity to form a government.
    Not quite. Its one party will trot off to the Governor general saying they have an opportunity to lead a coalition. Theres no rules on which party that is. Its the one who is best at hammering out a deal. And there can be no doubt war-horse Winston has the most experience in this arena. Winston as PM and Jacinda as Deputy is not outside the realms of possibility. Thats the baubles sorted. After that there will be agreement on various policy supports

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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    Assuming National win the Party vote, I suspect the minor parties will fall over themselves to get into power by coalition, assuming also that National do not have the Party vote numbers to unilaterally form a government. .
    No-one wins the party vote. All they do is win a share of it. Arguably the one with the biggest share gets the biggest say. But as we have seen previously NZ first got no where near the biggest share but certainly had the biggest say in forming a government.

    (Dont believe what Winston says pre-election - he'll sort it once hes seen how the cards fall)

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    I'm surprised eZ hasn't been along to tell us how Jacinda is wonderful and will give National a hiding. Then again, he's probably too busy helping Labour burn up their remaining funds banging up new signs.

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    National are toast, they lost their biggest asset when chicken Little resigned. Although once again turncoat Peters will probably side with National after the vote. Would not be the first time.
    Last edited by ratkin; 01-08-2017 at 08:08 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post
    National are toast, they lost their biggest asset when chicken Little resigned. Although once again turncoat Peters will probably side with National after the vote. Would not be the first time.
    He'll side with whichever party will appoint him P.M. Labour could, claiming his greater experience.

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    Quote Originally Posted by fungus pudding View Post
    He'll side with whichever party will appoint him P.M. Labour could, claiming his greater experience.
    We now have Donald Trump setting the bar of Statesmanship. Winston could be a shoe in.

    It could introduce a new dynamic under MMP. A figurehead PM while retaining party leadership who would remain responsible for driving policy and directing the hurd in Select Committees and Question Time.

    JA may not make a bad figurehead of a new Labour, especially with a Maori as deputy. Thats the Women and Maori vote - two demographics with more issues than the few remaining unionists. Add in youth so National are left with grumpy old white folk - and Winstons got that mob.

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    What do we think of Jacinda Ahern? I think the Labour party is in a state of desperation and will still be unable to come up with any feasible policy again. The fact the Maori members have taken themselves off the list is a joke and Hone to win Davis seat would be laughable. Jacinda will find herself on a hiding to nothing.

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    Why would you vote for a party where the leader has regularly stated she does not want to be Prime Minister?

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by 777 View Post
    Why would you vote for a party where the leader has regularly stated she does not want to be Prime Minister?
    Perhaps for the same reason you might vote for a party whose leader took them to one of the all time worse defeats.

    The answer is of course it is just politics - all these things need to be seen in the wider context of gamesmanship

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